Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent shift in the national stance on compliance antimony export controls since July is expected to alleviate the primary factors suppressing antimony prices over the past three months, leading to a potential price increase driven by marginal demand recovery [1][4]. - Antimony prices have experienced four phases of decline and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing price movements [2][14]. - The crackdown on smuggling has made significant progress, and the easing of antimony export management is anticipated to restore export volumes [3][24]. Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - The strength of export demand has become a critical factor in determining antimony prices since the implementation of export controls in September 2024 [13]. - Antimony prices fell from 161,000 CNY/ton to approximately 140,000 CNY/ton between September and November 2024 due to reduced export demand and capacity cuts in photovoltaic glass [14]. - A recovery in export demand and photovoltaic installations from February to April 2025 led to a rapid price increase from 144,000 CNY/ton to 236,000 CNY/ton [14]. Progress in Smuggling Crackdown - The significant price gap between domestic and international markets has stimulated smuggling activities, with the price difference expanding from 28,000 CNY/ton to approximately 200,000 CNY/ton post-export controls [3][19]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat strategic mineral smuggling, resulting in a drastic decline in export volumes from 800 tons/month to 225 tons and 138 tons in May and June 2025, respectively [3][26]. - The easing of export management in July 2025 is expected to enhance compliance and restore export volumes, with expectations of recovery in August and September [4][24]. Data Analysis - The marginal supply-demand balance for antimony is projected to reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [5][27]. - The analysis indicates that August and September 2025 may serve as a turning point for marginal demand, with expected exports recovering to 500 tons and 900 tons, respectively [30]. - The marginal demand is anticipated to shift from -82 tons in August to +249 tons, continuing to improve in September [30]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to related stocks in the antimony sector, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead [31].