Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and the tin price is expected to remain strong at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or hold a small - long position, paying attention to the 29 support level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 292,440 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,260 yuan/ton; the closing price of the December - January contract of Shanghai tin is - 380 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 36,695 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 515 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 40,779 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 4,387 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 232 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 139 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 3,015 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 20 tons [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,992 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 73 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 140 tons, with no change [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,446 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 136 tons [3] 2. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 291,000 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,300 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 292,580 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,250 yuan/ton [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 1,440 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 960 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 85 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 51.67 US dollars/ton [3] - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 0.87 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 million tons [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change; the average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 900 yuan/ton; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3] 4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 63.06 tons [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 188,330 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 2,040 yuan/ton; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1448 million tons [3] - The export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1976 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.031 million tons [3] 6. Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest rate ratio relationship should be maintained [3] - ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private enterprise compensation positions in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total decrease of 45,000 jobs in the month, the largest monthly decline since March 2023 [3] - Indonesia exported 2,643.05 tons of refined tin in October, a year - on - year decrease of 53.89% [3] 7. Viewpoint Summary - In the macro - aspect, the number of private sector employees in the US ADP in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. In the fundamental aspect, the first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State are in the production - ramping - up period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar in China is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is still limited [3] - The supply in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The import of tin ore in September decreased month - on - month. The sharp decline in Indonesia's refined tin exports in October alleviates the previous concerns about supply growth [3] - In the smelting end, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level; the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the output of refined tin is still limited [3] - On the demand side, the tin price has been fluctuating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - quantity replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. After the tin price rises, the market trading is cold [3] - The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, the spot premium drops to 50 yuan/ton; the LME inventory increases slightly, and the spot premium remains stable [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].