Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai tin will undergo short - term high - level adjustment and break below the MA10 support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 334,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,960 yuan; the closing price of the February - March contract of Shanghai tin is down 720 yuan with a 590 - yuan decrease in the ring - comparison [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 42,490 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 345 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 50,161 lots, a decrease of 2,115 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is 62 lots, an increase of 2,415 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 4,895 tons, an increase of 220 tons [3] - The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 8,477 tons (weekly), and the warehouse receipt of Shanghai Futures Exchange for tin is 7,905 tons (daily), a decrease of 64 tons [3] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME tin is 190 tons, an increase of 75 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 343,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 344,180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10,000 yuan [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is - 3,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 670 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 130 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65 US dollars [3] 上游情况 - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons (monthly), an increase of 0.29 million tons [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 331,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 335,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 8,750 yuan; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 产业情况 - The monthly output of refined tin is 1.4 million tons, a decrease of 0.16 million tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, a decrease of 518.38 tons [3] 下游情况 - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 219,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,520 yuan [3] - The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 139.01 million tons (monthly), an increase of 14.47 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 22.26 million tons, an increase of 2.5 million tons [3] 行业消息 - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, expand fiscal expenditure, and support the replacement of consumer goods with old ones [3] - In November, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, with a slight increase in the first 11 months, and the profit growth rate of high - tech manufacturing accelerated. The decline in industrial production and profit margins is the main reason for the narrowing of the profit growth rate [3] 观点总结 - On the macro - level, the Ministry of Finance will continue the proactive fiscal policy in 2026 [3] - On the fundamental level, the domestic supply of imported tin ore is still tight, and the processing fee of tin ore remains low. Although Myanmar's resumption of production and the end of the rainy season provide some supply increments, the overall import volume of tin ore is still low. The raw materials of tin ore are in short supply, and the production of refined tin is expected to be restricted. Indonesia's export volume increased in November, but the domestic import of tin is in a loss state, and the import volume is expected to remain low. The market's willingness to purchase tin has improved, the inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the LME inventory has increased significantly [3] - On the technical level, the trading volume has increased, showing an upper - shadow negative line, with increased divergence between bulls and bears, and facing key resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that Shanghai Tin will fluctuate upwards, and attention should be paid to the resistance level at 305,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a bullish atmosphere with increasing volume, open interest, and price. However, the downstream has low acceptance of current high prices and is mostly in a wait - and - see state. There are still concerns about tin ore supply, and smelting production is restricted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 302,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,320 yuan/ton. The closing price of the January - February contract of Shanghai Tin is - 360 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 120 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month tin price is 38,090 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 395 US dollars/ton. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 54,843 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 10,116 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 1,812 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 943 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,125 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,229 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of tin is 6,219 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 301,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 302,640 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,870 yuan/ton. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 680 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 590 yuan/ton. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 86 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.16 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.29 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 289,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 293,800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 6,600 yuan/ton. The average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 983.25 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 518.38 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 194,300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The cumulative monthly output of tinplate (strip) is 1.2454 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1361 million tons. The monthly export volume of tinplate is 222,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 25,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's Beige Book shows that economic activity has been basically flat in most of the 12 Fed districts, with 2 districts reporting a slight decline and 1 district reporting a slight increase. The overall outlook is basically unchanged, but some people point out an increased risk of slower economic activity in the next few months. Six departments jointly issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 6,000 to 216,000, the lowest in seven months. The initial value of US durable goods orders in September increased by 0.5% month - on - month as expected, and the growth rate of core capital goods orders accelerated to 0.9% more than expected [3]. 3.7 Fundamental Situation - The first batch of reopened mines in Myanmar's Wa State has entered the production capacity ramp - up period. However, two tin mines in Malaysia have suspended production, and the production in Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly. Africa is about to enter the rainy season, so there are still concerns about tin ore supply. Indonesia's refined tin exports decreased significantly in October, alleviating the previous concerns about supply growth. In the smelting end, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level. The waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate remains at a low level, so the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, there is only a small amount of rigid demand procurement, and the downstream has a low acceptance of current high prices and is basically in a wait - and - see state. The domestic inventory has increased slightly, with a spot premium of 200 yuan/ton. The LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has risen [3].

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | 沪锡日评20251117: 多位美联储官员对12月降息转鹰或施压锡价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变量名称 2025-11-13 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-10 | 较昨日变动 | 近期走势 | | 收盘价 291 450 298140 沪锡朗货活跃合约 | 286560 | -6, 690.00 | | | 成交量(手) 103936 151802 | 70764 | -47. 866. 00 | | | 持仓量(手) 36341 43594 | 34257 | -7.253.00 | | | 库存(吨) 5932 8699 | 5694 | 234. 00 | | | 沪锡县差 SMM 1#锡平均价 292100 296000 | 285800 | -3. 900. 00 | | | (现货与期货) 沪锡基差 650 -2140 | -760 | 2, 790. 00 | | | 沪锡近月-沪锡连一 550 -890 | -580 | 1, 440. 00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The expected tight supply of domestic tin ore supports the tin price. The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, Indonesia, and the decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. Despite the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the supply - demand tightness may not change, and the Fed's expected future interest rate cuts and the end of balance - sheet reduction, along with the preliminary Sino - US economic and trade negotiation plan, may make the Shanghai tin price trend stronger [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Data - **Shanghai Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the closing price was 281,230, up 1,890 from the previous day; the trading volume was 70,781 lots; the open interest was 38,076 lots; the inventory was 5,567 tons. The Shanghai tin basis (SMM 1 tin average price - futures price) was - 2,400, down 1,170 from the previous day. The spreads between different - month contracts also changed [1] - **LME Tin Futures**: On October 24, 2025, the LME 3 - month tin futures closing price (electronic trading) was 35,725, down 75 from the previous day. The LME tin futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 129, up 43 from the previous day; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 203.4, up 10 from the previous day. The LME tin global inventory was 2,750 tons, with no change from the previous day [1] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Myanmar's Wa State tin mines are resuming production slowly, and Indonesia has closed 1,000 illegal tin mines. The decreasing domestic tin concentrate processing fees may indicate a tight supply - demand situation. The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Yunnan and Jiangxi have increased (or remained flat) compared with last week [1] - **Demand**: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month. High tin prices have led downstream buyers to make fewer purchases on a just - in - time basis [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased compared with last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared with last week; the inventory of refined tin in the London Metal Exchange has increased compared with last week [1] 3. Trading Strategy - It is recommended to mainly place long positions after the price retreats. Pay attention to the support level around 260,000 - 270,000 and the resistance level around 290,000 - 300,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 33,000 - 35,000 and the resistance level around 38,000 - 40,000 for London tin [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro - face: Most Fed officials think further monetary easing this year may be appropriate, while a few might have supported no rate - cut in September. The US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, with expected rate cuts of 25 basis points twice by the end of this year and another 50 basis points in 2026 [3]. - Fundamental - face: In Indonesia, President Prabowo ordered the closure of 1,000 illegal tin mines, which may intensify the tight supply of tin ore. Tin ore imports from Myanmar have rebounded, and short - term supply shows improvement signs, but tin ore processing fees remain at historical lows. In the smelting sector, raw material shortages in Yunnan are still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with low operating rates. On the demand side, downstream made small pre - holiday stockpiling, domestic inventory decreased, but high tin prices may suppress procurement demand. LME inventory also declined, and the spot premium remained stable. It is recommended to wait and see or hold previous long positions cautiously [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 287,090 yuan/ton, with a change of 12,020. The closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 680 yuan/ton, with a change of 760. LME 3 - month tin is at 36,250 dollars/ton, down 120. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 34,948 lots, up 6,204. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 987 lots, up 388. LME tin total inventory is 2,505 tons, up 40. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 6,429 tons, down 130. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of tin are 5,851 tons, up 10 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 284,200 yuan/ton, up 7,000. The Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 283,960 yuan/ton, up 5,500. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 2,890 yuan/ton, down 5,020. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 65.01 dollars/ton, down 73.01 [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, with no change. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 272,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 276,200 yuan/ton, up 12,800. The processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, with no change [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 183,870 yuan/ton, up 4,080. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 [3]. 3.6 Industry News - The Fed's September meeting minutes show that most officials are in favor of further rate cuts this year, but many are cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants think further policy relaxation is appropriate for the rest of the year, and inflation is expected to stay high in the short - term and then gradually fall to 2%. - China's September manufacturing PMI is 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; non - manufacturing PMI is 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index is 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion. - S&P says the US government shutdown adds uncertainty to the economic outlook, and the delay in key economic data release will affect the Fed's monetary policy. Each week of shutdown may cut economic growth by 0.1 - 0.2 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach or buying on dips, with attention on the 271,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range. Technically, with reduced positions and price adjustments, there is a divergence in long - short trading, and the 275,000 resistance level should be watched. The domestic inventory has decreased due to some pre - holiday stockpiling, while LME inventory has increased, and the spot premium is at a low level [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 272,410 yuan/ton, down 1,660 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 500 yuan, with a 30 - yuan decline. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,415 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai Tin is 26,590 lots, down 2,701 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is 890 lots, down 474 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 2,775 tons, up 35 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 6,559 tons, down 429 tons. The LME tin cancelled warrants are 430 tons, up 45 tons [3] 现货市场 - The Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts are 5,950 tons, down 127 tons. The SMM 1 tin spot price is 271,400 yuan/ton, down 2,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 271,110 yuan/ton, down 2,570 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 370 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan, and the LME tin spread (0 - 3) is - 50 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore concentrates is 1.03 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrates' processing fee is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrates is 259,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrates is 263,400 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The average processing fee of 60% tin concentrates is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons. The monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bars in Gejiu is 176,170 yuan/ton, down 1,700 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 964,500 tons, up 141,600 tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 166,600 tons, down 39,400 tons [3] Industry News - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy and focus on implementing existing policies. The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council calls on state - owned enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition. China's industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year - on - year, reversing the 1.5% decline in July. Trump's new chip policy requires a 1:1 ratio of domestic production to imports for producers, with tariffs imposed if not met. The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month as expected, and consumer spending increased for three consecutive months [3] Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted mining license approvals, actual ore output will not occur until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. In July, the increase in production was due to multiple factors such as some enterprises' resumption of production and the clearance of intermediate products. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream enterprises generally maintain rigid procurement due to cost pressure, with a low willingness to actively stockpile. Due to the approaching National Day holiday, some enterprises have made small - scale pre - holiday stockpiling, resulting in a decline in domestic inventory and a spot premium of 300 yuan/ton, while the LME inventory has increased and the spot premium is at a low level [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach, with a focus on the price range of 271,000 - 277,000 yuan/ton. Currently, the tin market has high social inventory, slow demand recovery, and a weakening bullish sentiment. Technically, attention should be paid to the MA10 support [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin is 273,240 yuan/ton, down 5,410 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract is down 220 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 34,950 US dollars/ton, up 125 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 35,983 lots, down 10,315 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 2,826 lots, down 2,484 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,010 tons, up 115 tons, and the LME tin cancellation warrant is 230 tons, up 120 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin is 7,566 tons, up 75 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 7,215 tons, down 58 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM1 tin spot price is 272,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 272,430 yuan/ton, down 1,150 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is - 740 yuan/ton, up 5,010 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 175 US dollars/ton, up 53 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 12,100 tons, down 2,900 tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 260,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 264,500 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The processing fees for 40% and 60% tin concentrates from Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 177,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tin - plated sheets is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3]. f. Industry News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4, the new order index rose to 49.5, and the non - manufacturing sector accelerated its expansion. The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The Wa State in Myanmar restarted the mining license approval, but actual ore production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. The State Council executive meeting studied the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in some regions across the country [3]. g. View Summary - On the smelting side, the output increase in July was affected by factors such as enterprise复产 and intermediate product clearance. However, the raw material shortage in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, downstream processing enterprises are in the peak - season recovery period, with slow order recovery and little overall demand increase. Recently, social inventory has remained high, and tin downstream is cautious about purchasing after price increases. The spot premium has fallen to 0 yuan/ton, and domestic inventory has increased. LME inventory has rebounded, but the spot premium has risen [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that the market will mainly experience volatile adjustments. It suggests either waiting and observing or cautiously holding previous long - positions, with a focus on the 270,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton range [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai Tin was 271,790 yuan/ton, up 2,370 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract for Shanghai Tin was down 250 yuan; the LME 3 - month tin price was 34,130 US dollars/ton, up 285 US dollars; the main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 33,309 lots, up 23,394 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin was - 1,252 lots, up 417 lots; LME tin total inventory was 1,780 tons, down 5 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 7,491 tons, down 301 tons; the LME tin cancelled warrants were 155 tons, up 55 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of tin was 7,163 tons, up 11 tons; the SMM1 tin spot price was 272,000 yuan/ton, up 2,000 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 273,080 yuan/ton, up 2,670 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 210 yuan/ton, down 370 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 173 US dollars/ton, up 123 US dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the average price of 40% tin concentrate processing fee was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 40% tin concentrate was 260,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 264,000 yuan/ton, up 2,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate processing fee was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 176,290 yuan/ton, up 960 yuan; the cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - Trump's "three - step plan" to control the Federal Reserve is advancing. If he successfully fires Lisa Cook, he may get four seats on the seven - member board of governors. The State Council's "Artificial Intelligence +" action plan focuses on AI chip development and software ecosystem cultivation, and promotes the development of intelligent vehicles and other terminals [3] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Although Myanmar's Wa State has restarted the mining license approval, actual production will not start until the fourth quarter. The Congo's Bisie mine plans to resume production in stages. Currently, the tin ore processing fee remains at a historical low. In July, the increase in smelting output was affected by multiple factors such as the resumption of production by some enterprises and the cleaning of intermediate products. However, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, with the operating rate remaining at a low level. Most downstream and end - user enterprises are taking a wait - and - see attitude, using previous inventories for production and only making a certain amount of rigid demand purchases when prices fall slightly. The domestic inventory has increased, and the LME inventory has rebounded. Technically, the long - position is stronger with increased positions, and the price has reached above 270,000 yuan [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but due to the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and Congo-Kinshasa and the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - On August 13, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 267,940 yuan, a decrease of 380 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 44,115 lots, a decrease of 37,387 lots; the open interest was 24,776 lots, a decrease of 1,155 lots; the inventory was 7,332 tons, an increase of 33 tons [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month tin futures (electronic trading) on August 13, 2025, was $33,700, a decrease of $70 from the previous day; the LME tin global inventory was 1,780 tons, unchanged from the previous day [2]. - The ratio of Shanghai tin to London tin was 8.01 on August 13, 2025, an increase of 0.01 from the previous day [2]. Industry News - According to June data from the Indonesian Trade Ministry, the total export volume of tin ingots decreased by 18.2% to 4,465 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports to Singapore increased by 15.1% month - on - month to 1,063.95 tons, while exports to China decreased by 35.7% month - on - month to 953.85 tons [2]. - Stellar Resources extended the exclusivity period for the use of infrastructure in the Comstock mining area adjacent to the Heemskirk tin mine project by 6 months. The company is evaluating three development plans and aims to achieve an annual tin production of 3,000 - 3,500 tons in the first 6 - 10 years after production [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In July, some tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State planned to resume production, and the Bisie tin mine in Congo - Kinshasa also announced phased resumption of production. The domestic tin ore production and import volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward. The production of recycled tin in China in August increased month - on - month, and the operating rate of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased. The production and inventory of refined tin in China in August increased month - on - month. Indonesia's tin export quota may be compressed in the medium and long term, but PT Tinah plans to increase production and sales in 2025, and China's refined tin import volume in August may decrease month - on - month. The total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared with last week [2]. - Demand: The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a decline in the operating rate of China's tin solder production capacity in August. The import volume of China's solder strips in August may decrease month - on - month, and the production, import, and export volumes of China's tin - plated sheets in August may change as follows: production increases, import decreases, and export increases. The operating rate of China's lead - acid battery production capacity decreased compared with last week [2]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors wait and see for the time being, paying attention to the support level of 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance level of 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level of 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level of 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2].