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宁证期货今日早评-20251202
Ning Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-02 01:34
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].
大越期货锰硅周报-20250428
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:45
Report Information - Report Name: Manganese Silicon Weekly Report (April 21 - April 25) [1] - Author: Hu Yuxiu from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [1] - Contact: 0575 - 85226759 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - This week, the manganese ore market had weak trading, and prices were under downward pressure. Silicon - manganese producers were less willing to offer prices actively, mainly fulfilling long - term contracts, with few spot transactions. Affected by cost - price inversion, producers had weak willingness to cut or halt production. Downstream buyers had weak demand for silicon - manganese, and the release of terminal black - series demand was still awaited. - Next week, the silicon - manganese market is expected to have weak supply and demand, and spot prices are likely to be weak. [2] Summary by Directory Manganese Silicon Supply Capacity - The chart shows the monthly production capacity of silicon - manganese enterprises in China. [5][6] Annual Production - The chart presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in different regions of China, including Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other areas, as well as the national total. [7][8] Weekly, Monthly Production and Operating Rate - The chart shows the weekly and monthly production of silicon - manganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicon - manganese enterprises. [9][10] Regional Production - The report mentions the monthly production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, as well as the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi. [11][12] Manganese Silicon Demand Steel Tendering - The chart shows the monthly procurement volume of silicon - manganese by some steel enterprises, including Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shagang Co., Ltd., and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., as well as the weekly demand in China. [13][14] Steel Tendering Procurement Price - The chart presents the monthly procurement prices of silicon - manganese by multiple steel enterprises, such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, etc. [15][16] Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability - The chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profitability of 247 steel enterprises in China. [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - The chart shows the monthly import and export volumes of ferromanganese - silicon in China. [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - The chart shows the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, as well as the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the northern region, and the eastern region. [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost Manganese Ore Import Volume - The chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore in different trade methods, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China. [23][24] Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days - The chart shows the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, including Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of inventory. [25][26] High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory - The chart shows the weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, including Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ores. [27][28] Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - The chart shows the daily price of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, such as South African semi - carbonate manganese ore, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese ore. [29][30] Regional Cost - The chart shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in different regions, including Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi. [31][32] Manganese Silicon Profit - The chart shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in different regions, including the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi. [33][34]