Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro factors include stable September LPR in China, potential deposit - rate cuts in Q4, tariff measures by the US, and anti - dumping taxes by South Korea [7]. - In terms of supply and demand, iron - water production is high with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is higher than the same period. Independent coking plants are experiencing losses [7]. - Technically, the weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - After the holiday, the coke price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to trade the main contract with a view of oscillatory movement, and mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Macro**: China's September LPR remains unchanged; more banks may cut deposit rates in Q4; the US will impose tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea has imposed anti - dumping taxes on steel products [7]. - **Overseas**: The US plans tariff hikes, and South Korea imposes anti - dumping taxes on steel from China and Japan [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons, with high - level fluctuations, and coke inventory is relatively high. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 34 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduce positions to avoid risks, market sentiment drops, and the downstream restocking is weaker than expected. After the holiday, the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to mainly reduce or clear positions [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the coke futures contract open interest is 56,700 lots, down 81 lots; the 5 - 1 contract spread is 143.0, down 1.50 points; the registered warehouse receipts are 1,690 lots, up 140 lots; the rebar - coke ratio of the futures main contract is 1.84, up 0.02 points [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 25, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,430 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of Mongolian coking coal is 1,250 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton. As of September 26, the coke basis is - 330.0 yuan, down 51.0 points [25]. - **Production**: In August 2025, China's raw coal output is 39,049.7 million tons, down 3.2% year - on - year; the cumulative output from January to August is 316,517.4 million tons, up 2.8% year - on - year. In July 2025, China's coking coal output is 4,089.38 million tons, up 25 million tons month - on - month [28]. 3.3. Industry Chain - **Coking Plants**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants is 75.31%, down 0.04%; the daily coke output is 53.12, down 0.02; the coke inventory is 39.54, down 2.67; the total coking coal inventory is 856.23, up 53.06; the available coking coal days are 12.1 days, up 0.76 days. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 34 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.36 million tons, up 1.34 million tons week - on - week and 17.50 million tons year - on - year. As of September 26, the total coke inventory is 890.92 million tons, up 7.07 million tons week - on - week and 13.88% year - on - year [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port coke inventory is 496.85, down 18.47; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 661.31, up 16.64; the available coke days are 11.66 days, up 0.24 days [40]. - **Fundamentals**: From January to August, the cumulative coke exports are 495 million tons, down 20.0% year - on - year. In August 2025, China's steel exports are 951.0 million tons, down 32.6 million tons month - on - month and 3.3% month - on - month; the cumulative steel exports from January to August are 7,749.0 million tons. In August 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities drop 0.60% month - on - month. As of the week of September 21, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - sized cities is 161.13 million square meters, up 16.47% week - on - week and 23.41% year - on - year. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities is 51.15 million square meters, up 9.49% week - on - week and 65.15% year - on - year; in second - tier cities, it is 69.51 million square meters, up 11.25% week - on - week and 11.32% year - on - year [46][49][54].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanxi coking coal market is experiencing a stable operation with slight supply decreases, while the overall price index remains unchanged compared to the previous period, but shows a significant decline year-on-year [6]. Price Index Summary - The Shanxi coking coal price index stands at 1124 points, unchanged from the previous period, but down 847 points compared to the same period last year [6]. - Specific prices for various types of coking coal include: - Top-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1179 points - Top-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1452 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke wet quenching at 1029 points - Standard-grade metallurgical coke dry quenching at 1184 points - All these prices remain stable compared to the last period [6]. Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is showing positive trends, with some coking plants raising prices by 50-55 yuan per ton [6]. - Coking enterprises are currently facing losses, with an average loss of 63 yuan per ton and a capacity utilization rate dropping to 72.72%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [6]. - Steel mill demand is improving, leading to smooth shipments from coking enterprises and a rapid decrease in inventory levels [6]. Pricing and Inventory - The mainstream price for standard-grade dry quenching coke in Shanxi is between 1210-1285 yuan per ton [6]. - The spot market for coking coal at ports is stable to slightly strong, with port inventories remaining stable [6]. - The current mainstream cash out-of-port price for standard-grade metallurgical coke is between 1250-1300 yuan per ton [6]. Future Outlook - The combination of smooth shipments, low inventory levels, and a bullish sentiment in the futures market is expected to support a stable to slightly strong operation in the coking coal market in the short term [6].