Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3][6] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, reduced availability of attractive properties, and a high base effect from last year's supportive policies [1][3][6] New Housing Market - In October, new housing transactions in Shenzhen totaled 3,352 units, a significant month-on-month decline of 29%, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [3][6] - Despite the drop in sales, new housing supply remained active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, reflecting a 2.3% increase month-on-month, and residential supply surged by 37.9% [3][6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, a 6.8% decrease, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [5][6] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a reduction in buyer enthusiasm following a previously active September [5][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the October downturn, the market showed signs of resilience, with second-hand housing transactions remaining above 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained demand [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties rose to 58,900 yuan per square meter, a 0.3% increase month-on-month, although the listing price slightly decreased by 1% [6][8] - The announcement of Shenzhen hosting the 2026 APEC meeting has sparked renewed interest in the real estate market, leading to a strong start in November with significant increases in both new and second-hand property transactions [7][8] Policy Environment - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 new policies introduced this year [8] - The market is expected to face pressure in the short term due to high base effects and increased supply, but a gradual recovery in transaction volumes is anticipated as year-end approaches [8]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality development in the real estate market, focusing on optimizing housing supply and improving living conditions for various demographics, particularly urban workers and families in need [2][3][6]. Real Estate Development - The plan aims to accelerate the construction of a new model for real estate development, enhancing the basic systems for property development, financing, and sales [2][3]. - It highlights the need for tailored policies based on city characteristics to increase the supply of improved housing, addressing the diverse needs of residents [3][6]. Urban Renewal - The "15th Five-Year Plan" marks a new phase in urban renewal, with a stronger emphasis on legal frameworks for land use rights and encouraging market participation through innovative financing models [4][5]. - The plan aims to resolve core challenges in urban renewal by leveraging fiscal funds and breaking through institutional barriers [4]. Risk Management - The increased mention of "risk" in the plan indicates a continued focus on preventing and mitigating risks in real estate, local government debt, and small financial institutions [5]. - The plan reiterates the importance of systematic risk management in the real estate sector, reflecting ongoing central government concerns [5]. Housing Quality and Supply - The plan categorically states the goal of high-quality housing development, transitioning from merely addressing housing shortages to enhancing living quality and promoting social equity [8][10]. - It emphasizes a dual-track system of "market + guarantee" to ensure effective housing supply in cities experiencing population influx [8][10]. Regional Development - The plan prioritizes regional development, aiming to optimize economic layouts and promote coordinated growth, particularly in core urban areas like the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta [9][10]. - It suggests breaking down restrictions on housing fund usage across regions to facilitate the flow of people and capital [10].