9 月克而瑞百强房企销售解读 摘要 2025 年前三季度全国累计销售金额同比下降 11.8%，但降幅较 1-8 月 收窄 1.3 个百分点，显示市场降幅趋缓。 9 月 Top3 房企销售额同比增长 2.6%，百强房企整体同比增长 0.4%， 较 8 月显著回升，但各梯队房企累计销售额仍同比下降。 9 月重点城市新房新增供应面积环比大增 55%至 1,020 万平方米，为年 内次高，但同比仍下降 15%，供应增加是业绩环比增长的重要因素。 9 月 30 个重点城市新房成交面积环比上升 18%，同比下降 5%，一线 城市成交回升，但整体市场仍低于去年同期水平。 9 月新房市场去化率下降 4 个百分点至 38%，表明市场虽有回暖，但整 体去化压力仍然存在，城市间分化明显。 二手房市场 9 月环比下降 1%，同比增长 10%，一线城市政策效果显现， 但以价换量为主，与新房市场趋势背离。 预计 2025 年 10 月新房成交量将继续保持低位，同比降幅可能扩大， 二手房成交动能放缓，市场整体仍面临下行压力。 Q&A 今年 9 月份百强房企的销售情况如何？ 从各梯队房企的表现来看，Top 3 房企（如保利、绿城、中海）单月 ...

深圳9·5房地产新政持续释放效能，深房中协的数据显示，第38周（9月15日~9月21日），深圳住宅市场 呈现出二手房录得量高位运行、新房环比跃升的特征。其中，新房成交969套，环比增长10%。 值得关注的是，9月以来，500万~800万的改善型房产成交占比明显提升，对比8月提升了3个百分点， 改善型需求积极释放。 1500万元以上豪宅成交占比提升2.6% 9·5新政落地第三周，深圳的新房市场交出了亮眼答卷。数据显示，全市新房（含预售+现售）周成交 969套，环比前一周增长10%，延续了新政以来稳中有升的态势。 乐有家研究中心的数据显示，上周，深圳1500万元以上豪宅房源成交占比显著增长，提升2.6个百分 点，达到相对高位。此外，500万元~800万元，800万元~1000万元改善型房源成交占比也相对有所增 长。其中，9月以来，500万元~800万元的改善型房产成交占比明显提升，对比整个8月提升了3个百分 点，改善型住房需求积极释放。 市房地产中介协会的专家认为，分区优化调整居民购房相关政策与个人住房信贷政策，被普遍认为是对 楼市影响较大的措施，说明新政在核心调控方向上贴合市场需求，政策设计具备较强的针对性与实 ...

1500万以上豪宅成交占比提升2.6% 深圳商报·读创客户端首席记者 李秀瑜 深圳9·5房地产新政持续释放效能，深房中协的数据显示，第38周（9月15日-9月21日），深圳住宅市场 呈现出二手录得量高位运行、新房环比跃升的特征。其中，新房成交969套，环比增长10%。 值得关注的是，9月以来，500-800万的改善型房产成交占比明显提升，对比8月提升了3个百分点，改善 型需求积极释放。 乐有家研究中心的报告显示，深圳9.5新政后，市场咨询量、成交量均有一定程度提升，尤其是罗湖等 限购松绑区域。乐有家研究中心整理了132个片区最新的挂牌价数据，相较新政前，挂牌价整体维稳， 且多数处于微跌趋稳状态，但也有部分片区挂牌价有所微涨，如罗湖新秀，宝安石岩、臣田，南山前海 北、南头，龙华红山等。 "新政对市场起到了带动作用，二手房呈现持续向稳向好态势，但是受持续两周的台风天影响，带看量 有一定的影响。未来，随着天气转好及下半年到年底学区房、结婚房等需求的释放，也会带动下半年市 场价稳量稳。"乐有家研究中心的相关负责人接受记者采访时说。 业内专家表示，二手房的高位运行为改善型需求提供了"卖旧"的基础，许多市民有意愿出售现有 ...

朋友圈的一则"惊闻"：房价三天涨回四年跌幅？我陷入沉思 当朋友圈被"三天房价涨回四年跌幅"的奇闻刷屏时，我一边刷新着最新的数据，一边陷入了深深的沉思。刚刚公布的8 月统计数据显示，全国70个大中城市中，二手房价格普遍下行，竟有69个城市仍在"下跌"的泥潭中挣扎；而一线城市的 新房价格环比跌幅更是扩大至0.3%。这一幕，宛如一出"魔幻现实"的戏剧，刚刚过去的几天疯狂上涨，与过去四年房地 产市场的持续调整形成了如此强烈的反差，令人震惊。 01、政策的"组合拳"能否托起楼市的"底盘"？ 然而，这些"暖流"似乎只惠及了特定人群。例如，90后程序员能够享受"首付最低15%、人才补贴"的政策，成功买到了 心仪的新房；二胎妈妈则抓住了"特价房"的机会。但对于普通购房者而言，大多数人仍在观望和等待。据中指研究院的 最新调查，6月份居民的购房意愿降至年内最低点，仅有15%，而高达34%的家庭表示"再等等看"。尽管政策频出，但对 市场的根本性改变尚未显现。 02、市场的极端分裂：豪宅的"狂欢"与老破小的"悲歌" 面对当前的房地产市场，我看到了两个截然不同的"极端"。 一端，是豪宅市场令人瞩目的"刷屏时刻"。上海新杨思板块，228 ...

有麻烦 尽管各类住房可负担性政策陆续推出，澳洲房价却在一个出人意料的方向加速上涨： 涨得最快的不是豪宅，而是最便宜的那一批房子。 这一趋势恐将进一步拉大住房拥有率的代际差距，让越来越多年轻人望房兴叹。 房地产平台Domain的数据显示： 在过去三年里，大多数首府城市中， 房价涨幅最大的不是高端市场，而是最便宜的四分之一的房产。 Domain首席研究与经济学家Nicola Powell表示： 这颠覆了传统的房价周期逻辑。 Powell说： 通常是高端市场领涨房价周期，现在却反过来了。 这说明普通人真正"买得起" 的房子已经越来越少， 导致更多人集中竞争少数价格还能接受的房源。 这意味着本就买不起房的一群人，未来能选的房子会越来越少。 这反映出负担能力已经到了临界点。 普通人不仅要花很长时间攒首付，每月还款压力也越来越大。 现在在住房拥有方面已经出现明显的代际差异。 34岁以下澳洲人的住房拥有率断崖式下跌。 相比战后出生的人群，那些出生在1980年代末的人，拥有房产的可能性要低得多。 根据澳洲健康与福利研究所的统计： 1987至1991年出生的人中，30至34岁时有房可住的比例仅为49.7%。 而相比之下，194 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the concept of "structural bull market" in the context of China's real estate and stock markets, highlighting that since 2016, the market has not experienced a comprehensive bull market, but rather a structural one where investment is concentrated in specific sectors [2][8] - The real estate market in China has shown a trend of increasing numbers of cities experiencing price declines, with the peak of the real estate cycle occurring in 2021 [2][8] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national real estate market [8][9] Group 2 - The article compares the peak of China's real estate market in 2021 to Japan's in 1991, noting that while Tokyo's prices fell by over 50% by 1995, Shanghai's projected decline by 2025 is around 30% [8][10] - The demand for luxury properties in Shanghai is driven by factors such as urbanization, income disparity, and a lack of high-yield investment opportunities, leading to a concentration of wealth in major cities [11][15] - The article highlights that the high-end property market in Shanghai is characterized by significant price increases, with some luxury projects seeing price hikes of over 16% within a year [9][11] Group 3 - The stock market is experiencing a structural bull market, particularly in the technology sector, driven by optimism surrounding AI and related industries, with the ChiNext 50 index showing a significant increase [19][23] - The article notes that the current market environment is marked by low interest rates and a shift of funds from savings to equities, although overall economic growth remains a concern [21][27] - The disparity in investment preferences between A-shares and U.S. stocks is highlighted, with A-shares focusing more on smaller companies and storytelling rather than valuation metrics [30][32]

Group 1 - The term "structural" has gained popularity since 2016, particularly in the context of supply-side structural reforms, leading to a "structural bull market" where investment opportunities are concentrated in a few sectors [1] - The real estate market has also experienced a structural shift, with a growing number of cities showing price declines rather than uniform increases, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] - Shanghai's luxury real estate market is thriving, with high-end properties seeing significant price increases, contrasting with the overall downward trend in the national housing market [2][3] Group 2 - Shanghai's luxury market is characterized by strong demand, with high-value properties consistently selling out, indicating a robust appetite for premium real estate despite broader market challenges [3][7] - The price of new luxury apartments in Shanghai has risen sharply, with some projects experiencing price increases of over 16% within a year, highlighting the resilience of high-end real estate [3][4] - The disparity in real estate performance between Shanghai and other cities can be attributed to factors such as urbanization trends, income inequality, and a scarcity of high-quality assets in the market [8][11] Group 3 - The current economic environment in China is marked by an "asset shortage," where low interest rates and declining returns on traditional investments drive wealthy individuals towards luxury real estate as a means of asset appreciation [11][14] - The overall real estate market in China remains sluggish, with a decline in sales volume and prices, yet the luxury segment in major cities like Shanghai continues to perform well [11][12] - The comparison with Japan's real estate market suggests that while Shanghai's luxury prices are increasing, they are doing so at a slower rate than Tokyo's historical declines, indicating a different market dynamic [2][4] Group 4 - The structural bull market in the stock market is driven by technological advancements, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, which are experiencing significant growth despite broader economic challenges [26][30] - The A-share market shows a preference for smaller companies, contrasting with the U.S. market where larger firms dominate, indicating different investment behaviors and market structures [29][30] - The ongoing transformation of China's economy is evident, with emerging industries gaining market share, suggesting a shift in investment focus towards technology and innovation [25][34]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in first-tier cities is increasingly attracting younger buyers, with significant shifts in demographics and purchasing power observed in recent years [3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - In Shenzhen's luxury market, buyers from the post-90s generation account for 30% of purchases, while those from the post-00s are also emerging as significant buyers [4]. - In Shanghai, over 50% of high-end property transactions involve buyers from the post-95 generation [4]. - The overall real estate market is experiencing a downturn, raising questions about the value and expectations associated with luxury properties [4][5]. Group 2: Buyer Experiences - Buyers often feel disappointed with the luxury properties they purchase, as many do not meet their expectations despite high prices [5]. - A buyer in Shenzhen noted that their property, initially valued at over 30 million, has seen a price drop to around 27 million, indicating a decline in perceived value [8]. - The phenomenon of "price defense" is prevalent among luxury homeowners, where they actively discourage low-priced listings to maintain property values [9][10]. Group 3: Property Management and Services - Homeowners express dissatisfaction with the services promised by developers, often feeling that the actual offerings fall short of expectations [17][20]. - A buyer in Beijing reported that the promised luxury services were not delivered, leading to feelings of being misled [17][20]. - The community dynamics in luxury properties have shifted, with residents becoming more proactive in monitoring property management and advocating for better services [21][31]. Group 4: Financial Implications - The financial burden of luxury properties is significant, with many buyers experiencing anxiety over declining property values and the implications for their investments [20][42]. - A buyer shared that their property, initially purchased for over 10 million, has lost approximately 2 million in value, highlighting the risks associated with high-end real estate investments [20]. - The trend of younger buyers entering the luxury market reflects a broader shift in wealth distribution and investment strategies among the new generation [4][36].

Core Viewpoint - China Resources Land (华润置地) has made a significant investment in Shanghai by acquiring a combination of land parcels in the Pudong New Area and Huangpu District for a total price of 24.47 billion yuan, setting a new record for land prices in 2025 [2][5]. Investment Details - The acquisition involves a joint venture with Shanghai Nan Fang Group, where China Resources Land's subsidiary, Shanghai Hongzhe, holds a 90% stake, indicating an investment of over 22 billion yuan from the company [2][3]. - The land parcels include the Houtan and Yuqingli areas, which will create a "super luxury asset package" in Shanghai's core area, enhancing the company's strategic footprint in the city [5][6]. Market Positioning - In 2024, China Resources Land's total sales in Shanghai were 31.166 billion yuan, trailing behind major competitors like China Overseas Land and Investment and Poly Developments [5][6]. - The luxury property market is seen as a crucial avenue for increasing market share and competitiveness, with high-value projects attracting significant attention [5][7]. Market Dynamics - The luxury real estate market in Shanghai has shown resilience, with a notable increase in transactions for properties priced at 30 million yuan and above, reflecting a 214% growth compared to the average from 2017 to 2023 [7][8]. - The demand for luxury properties has led to a surge in land prices, with recent auctions achieving record high prices per square meter, indicating strong competition among developers for prime locations [8][9]. Future Outlook - The strategic acquisition is expected to bolster China Resources Land's market presence and brand in Shanghai, aligning with the company's long-term development and investment strategy [5][6]. - The ongoing demand for luxury properties and the favorable market conditions are likely to enhance the company's investment returns and commercial influence in the region [5][9].

Core Insights - The luxury real estate market in first-tier cities is increasingly attracting younger buyers, with significant participation from the post-90s and post-00s generations [1] - In Shenzhen, 30% of luxury home buyers are in their 20s and 30s, while in Shanghai, over 50% of buyers in high-end properties are from the post-95 generation [1] - The perception of luxury homes is shifting, with many young buyers feeling disappointed by the actual offerings compared to their expectations [1] Group 1: Buyer Demographics - The influx of young buyers into the luxury market indicates a generational shift in wealth accumulation and investment strategies [1] - Many young buyers are leveraging family wealth or capitalizing on industry trends to afford luxury properties [1][2] - The minimum age for purchasing luxury homes has decreased to as low as 20 years old in some cases [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a general downturn in the real estate market, luxury properties in major cities continue to see high demand, with some buyers willing to pay over 10 million yuan [1][2] - Buyers are highly sensitive to price fluctuations, often engaging in community discussions to maintain property values [3][5] - The phenomenon of "internal digestion" among homeowners is prevalent, where residents buy properties within their community to prevent price drops [5] Group 3: Buyer Experiences - Many buyers report feeling misled by developers regarding the quality and features of luxury homes, leading to a sense of betrayal upon receiving their properties [9][10][12] - The disparity between promised services and actual offerings has led to dissatisfaction among homeowners, particularly regarding property management and amenities [10][12] - Homeowners are increasingly organizing to advocate for their rights and ensure that developers fulfill their commitments [13][20] Group 4: Economic Context - The economic landscape for young professionals has changed, with many facing job insecurity and salary reductions, impacting their ability to maintain mortgage payments [6][29] - The luxury real estate market is seen as both a personal residence and an investment, with buyers keenly aware of market trends and property values [22][29] - The narrative of upward mobility through real estate investment is challenged by recent market downturns, prompting buyers to reassess their financial strategies [29][30]