位于广州的凯旋新世界楼盘实景图。 未来3-5年，四大一线城市内部分化将会表现愈加明显。核心城区例如北京五环内、上海外环内以及广 州天河、深圳南山等区域凭借各自的产业优势、配套优势带来更多人口流入，以高端产业、优质教育和 医疗资源吸引更多潜在购买力，房价稳中有升的概率较大。 2025年的房地产市场，在分化与调整中呈现和过往不同的行情：二手房成为市场主力，核心城市与远郊 区县、核心城区与远郊区域走势分化加剧，房价"跌穿底部"的态势与市场筑底的信号并存。在政策端持 续发力，限购优化、房票安置等举措不断落地之下，需求端则呈现刚需入场、改善观望的复杂格局。 站在2026年的全新起点，楼市将走向何方？是延续底部徘徊，还是迎来稳步升温？刚需一族可以出手了 吗？改善家庭是否迎来资产升级窗口期？一线城市及重点二线城市豪宅市场又将呈现怎样的独立行情？ 南都记者采访了十位房地产行业的权威专家进行解读，从全国市场格局到广深等核心城市走势，从政策 导向到置业建议，全面剖析房地产市场核心逻辑与未来趋势，为读者厘清市场迷雾。 看 广 州 对比2024年，2025年广州一手住宅的成交量下降。当中与经济环境有关，大部分购房者面临收入下降， 导 ...

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 主流开发商全年销售回顾与 2026 销售展望 20260104 摘要 Q&A 2025 年全年房地产开发商的销售情况如何? 2025 年全年,前百强房企的累计销售额下降了 19.3%,相比往年的降幅有所收窄。 各梯队房企的表现存在分化,前三强房企的销售额下降 16.7%,前十强下降 18.2%。 相对而言,50-100 强房企的降幅较大,达到24%左右。许多后 50 名的房企在经 历了几年的快速下跌后,销售业绩已经接近"跌无可跌"的状态。 从业绩重心 来看,今年过千亿的房企减少至10家,而2021年有 43 家超过千亿。300 到 1,000 亿规模的房企今年只有 13 家,比去年减少 9 家,100-300 亿规模的房企今年 42 x 调研究要和海堡等方面。 一 争 男 2025 年房地产市场的销售情况如何?哪些项目表现较好? 2025 年房地产市场中表现较好的项目主要分为两类:降价项目和新规产品。降 价项目通过大幅度降价吸引购房者,确保销售量。新规产品在得房率和整体产品 力上明显优于传统住宅,成为市场热点。然而,即便是豪宅,在 2025年下半年 也 ...

01 都说项目定位决定楼盘命运，但是对于城市而言，却没有给每个楼盘太多做定位的机会。不论哪个城 市，哪怕是我们去过的三线地级市，刚需市场的需求总量萎缩得特别厉害，几乎已经没有能力实现系统 化的去化。而且不少项目因为户型面积较小从而导致的套数总量过大，项目的持续开发都会碰到问题。 当市场刚需不足的时候，这部分的房源可能通过降价的方式也没有办法完成去化。而另一边，改善是现 在市场当之无愧最为汹涌也最为稳健的需求端，但是改善类项目开发现在面临着无利润的窘境。如今的 土地成本和市场售价都已经完全透明，另外改善类供给侧在这两年进入卷的赛道，整体的投入越来越 多。而且但凡卷不过别人，后续降价带来的亏损会放得更加大，这也就意味着几乎每个改善类项目的利 润都像刀片那么薄。 但凡去化周期没有赶上，整体的财务成本加上去，卖亏就是在一瞬间。所以现在在市面上，好像只有做 高端的定位，而且是坚定不移地从开始阶段做高端，去做有钱人的生意，才有可能实现项目溢价。 虽然不确定，但也只剩下这一个选择。言下之意就是，不选就没有出路，选了就有一定可能。作为从业 者也没有太多选择。另外在理性层面似乎也支持这样的"铤而走险"。对于高端豪宅类产品，过去 ...

今年以来，一线城市豪宅市场呈现出显著的结构性分化。据中指研究院统计，年内上海总价4000万元以上的住宅成交约1300套，金额突破800亿元；若以 3000万元为统计口径，成交套数约1900套，总金额超过1000亿元。 （注：由于各城市市场结构和统计习惯不同，高端住宅统计门槛存在差异，因此数据对比主要反映趋势与量级。） 每经记者｜包晶晶 陈荣浩 陈梦妤 每经编辑｜段炼 陈梦妤 魏文艺 2025年，一线城市豪宅火了。 广州天河区保利玥玺湾，11月7日开盘销售约106亿元，成为今年全国首个"开盘当日破百亿元"的豪宅项目。 但12月28日，深圳中信信悦湾开盘选房，两小时销售额便已超百亿元。若加上此前入市的深圳湾沄玺和GCC联泰超总湾，三大顶豪项目揽金近300亿元。 《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）统计发现，今年上海总价3000万元以上的新建住宅，成交金额已突破1000亿元。相比之下，北京、广州、深 圳三地同级别豪宅的成交总额与之大致相当。 上海 这一规模意味着，上海的豪宅销售量价一骑绝尘，市场份额高度集中。以套均3000万元及以上豪宅的成交金额计，上海已大致与北京（1600万元以上约 588亿元）、广州（10 ...

在北京，位于国贸核心板块的"梵悦108"项目，物业费高达30元/平方米/月，整个小区面积段在120～472 平方米之间，每年物业费4万～17万元不等。 另一方面，存量房物业费稳中有降，多地出现物业费降价潮，不少物业企业甚至主动撤出小区。中物智 库高级研究员宋子谦在接受采访时表示："新盘物业费上涨，核心不是'物业公司敢收这么高'，而是产 品升级使得长期运营成本显性化了。" （文章来源：21世纪经济报道） 据每日经济新闻报道，核心城市新盘物业费定价越来越高。以上海为代表的核心城市豪宅项目（含公 寓），物业费屡创新高，如海泰北外滩物业费已达到36元/平方米/月。 公开资料显示，海泰北外滩项目面积段在370～1500平方米，物业费达到36元/平方米/月，这也意味着 该楼盘业主一年最低物业费为16万元，最高则达到了65万元。 ...

2025年11月26日，英国最新的2025年秋季预算案正式公布！ 在经济增速被OBR意外下调、公共财政承压、政策内容提前泄露的混乱背景下，政府选择通过一系列增税、福利调整与制度改革来重新分配税负与资 源。 这份预算呈现出四大鲜明特点： 税收全面收紧：260亿英镑增税落地，中产与资产收入普遍被波及。 福利显著扩张：取消两孩福利上限，更多资源流向低收入家庭。 持有成本上升：电动车里程税、豪宅税等新规推高资产成本。 资产与中产成主要承压群体：储蓄者、房东、投资者的税务压力同步上升。 那么，本次预算到底改变了什么？谁最受影响？哪些新的成本会出现？哪些群体会受益？又会对英国房产市场带来哪些趋势变化？ 以下，我们将从四个维度详细拆解本次预算案的核心内容。 01 预算核心： 本次预算关键变化 今天的2025年秋季预算案，是瑞秋·里夫斯（Rachel Reeves）上任以来最受关注、也最具争议的一份预算。 受经济增长预测下调（由OBR意外泄漏）影响，财政大臣最终选择推出总额260亿英镑的增税方案，以填补财政缺口，同时推动福利扩张。 本次预算案的核心政策可概括为： 总体来看，本次预算呈现出四大核心特征： 1 全面提升税收贡献度 ...

在深圳，多个被业内称为"顶豪"的项目在年底轮番登场，有望拉升楼市热度。另一边，一线城市的豪宅 市场也持续活跃。在业内人士看来，豪宅市场热点依然集中在一线城市和少数强二线城市的核心区域， 区域分化将更加明显。 近日，深圳市房地产信息平台官网发布后海沄玺花园(深圳湾澐玺)项目预售信息。根据公告显示，此次 总计348套住宅获批预售，预售房源为1栋一单元、1栋二单元，建筑面积约209平方米至1150平方米的住 宅产品。据统计，获批预售房源备案均价约每平方米16.8万元。 今年以来，一线城市豪宅市场持续活跃。以上海为例，克而瑞数据显示，2025年前三季度上海总价5000 万元以上的顶级豪宅共成交674套，增幅高达27%。在多城力推低容积率宅地以及取消价格限制的背景 下，一线城市楼市可能还将出现更多高端住宅楼盘排队入市的情况。 有业内人士表示，核心地段豪宅在市场调整期展现出更强的抗跌性，豪宅属性强的新盘依然受到购房者 欢迎，属于市场中"硬通货"。不过，房地产市场的深度分化是市场的关键特征，特别是豪宅和普通住宅 的分化。对于豪宅市场而言，热点依然集中在一线城市和少数强二线城市的核心区域，区域分化将更加 明显。 中指研究院认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The luxury real estate market in China is experiencing significant price declines, challenging the long-held belief that luxury properties are immune to market fluctuations [3][22][23] Group 1: Market Trends - Recent transactions indicate that luxury properties are being sold at steep discounts, with examples showing reductions of up to 75% from previous listing prices [2][6] - In 2024, only 1,497 units of second-hand luxury homes priced over 30 million yuan were sold in 30 major cities, a stark contrast to the 65% increase in new luxury home sales [6][10] - The trend of declining prices is not limited to first-tier cities but is also spreading to second and third-tier cities, with some properties experiencing drops of over 70% [8][9] Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Declines - An oversupply of new luxury homes is drawing potential buyers away from the second-hand market, leading to decreased demand for older properties [10][12] - Economic downturns have made wealthy individuals more cautious with their spending, impacting the luxury real estate market [13][14] - The previous speculative nature of luxury home prices has diminished, with current buyers being more discerning and focused on actual value rather than inflated prices [14][15] Group 3: Changing Perceptions of Luxury Real Estate - Luxury properties, once seen as a stable asset, are now viewed as potential liabilities, with reports indicating that they may no longer serve as effective wealth preservation tools [17][22] - The belief that real estate will always appreciate in value has been challenged, as many now recognize that properties can depreciate and become financial burdens [20][23] - The market is expected to further differentiate between genuinely scarce luxury properties and those that are merely overbuilt, with the latter likely to struggle in terms of value retention [22][24]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3][6] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, reduced availability of attractive properties, and a high base effect from last year's supportive policies [1][3][6] New Housing Market - In October, new housing transactions in Shenzhen totaled 3,352 units, a significant month-on-month decline of 29%, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [3][6] - Despite the drop in sales, new housing supply remained active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, reflecting a 2.3% increase month-on-month, and residential supply surged by 37.9% [3][6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, a 6.8% decrease, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [5][6] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a reduction in buyer enthusiasm following a previously active September [5][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the October downturn, the market showed signs of resilience, with second-hand housing transactions remaining above 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained demand [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties rose to 58,900 yuan per square meter, a 0.3% increase month-on-month, although the listing price slightly decreased by 1% [6][8] - The announcement of Shenzhen hosting the 2026 APEC meeting has sparked renewed interest in the real estate market, leading to a strong start in November with significant increases in both new and second-hand property transactions [7][8] Policy Environment - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 new policies introduced this year [8] - The market is expected to face pressure in the short term due to high base effects and increased supply, but a gradual recovery in transaction volumes is anticipated as year-end approaches [8]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, a reduction in attractive property options, and a high base effect from the previous year's market activity [1][3] - Despite the downturn in October, there are signs of recovery in November, driven by positive news such as the selection of Shenzhen as the host city for the 2026 APEC meeting, which has stimulated buyer interest [4][5] New Housing Market - In October, Shenzhen's new housing transactions totaled 3,352 units, reflecting a 29% month-on-month decline, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [1][2] - The supply of new homes was active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, a 2.3% increase from the previous month, and residential supply surged by 37.9%, reaching the highest level in three months [2] - High-end market segments saw notable activity, with several luxury projects experiencing strong sales and new developments set to enter the market by year-end [2] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also showed a month-on-month decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, down 6.8%, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [3] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a decrease in buyer urgency following a busy September, leading to a need for more time to compare properties [3] - Despite the overall decline, the second-hand market maintained a robust performance, with transaction volumes exceeding 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, and prices showing a slight increase [3] Market Outlook - November began with a strong performance in the Shenzhen real estate market, attributed to the APEC announcement, which has led to increased buyer activity in both new and second-hand markets [4][5] - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 policy measures introduced this year [6] - The market is expected to face pressure due to high base effects from the previous year, but new supply and ongoing demand may support sales in the coming months [6]