Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3][6] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, reduced availability of attractive properties, and a high base effect from last year's supportive policies [1][3][6] New Housing Market - In October, new housing transactions in Shenzhen totaled 3,352 units, a significant month-on-month decline of 29%, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [3][6] - Despite the drop in sales, new housing supply remained active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, reflecting a 2.3% increase month-on-month, and residential supply surged by 37.9% [3][6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, a 6.8% decrease, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [5][6] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a reduction in buyer enthusiasm following a previously active September [5][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the October downturn, the market showed signs of resilience, with second-hand housing transactions remaining above 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained demand [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties rose to 58,900 yuan per square meter, a 0.3% increase month-on-month, although the listing price slightly decreased by 1% [6][8] - The announcement of Shenzhen hosting the 2026 APEC meeting has sparked renewed interest in the real estate market, leading to a strong start in November with significant increases in both new and second-hand property transactions [7][8] Policy Environment - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 new policies introduced this year [8] - The market is expected to face pressure in the short term due to high base effects and increased supply, but a gradual recovery in transaction volumes is anticipated as year-end approaches [8]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market in week 41 (October 6 - October 12, 2025) shows a stark contrast between the cooling of the new housing market and the warming of the second-hand housing market [1] Group 1: New Housing Market - In week 41, Shenzhen's new residential market recorded a total of 167 transactions, a significant decrease of 57.51% compared to the previous week, with a transaction area of 16,400 square meters, down 57.25% [2] - The transaction volume has sharply declined from a peak of over 400 units in week 38, marking the lowest point in the observed period [2] - The new housing market saw 420 units registered for sale, reflecting a 65.35% increase in registration, with a registered area of 47,100 square meters, up 89.29%, indicating potential market demand despite the current transaction barriers [3] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - In contrast, the second-hand residential market in Shenzhen showed increased activity, with 740 transactions in week 41, representing an 84.08% increase in transaction volume and a transaction area of 73,900 square meters, up 83.11% [4] - The total number of transactions for both new and second-hand housing reached 907 units, with a ratio of 0.23:1, highlighting the relative heat of the second-hand market [6] - The recent uptick in second-hand housing transactions indicates a release of market demand, contributing positively to the overall real estate landscape [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in new housing transactions may be influenced by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, while the rise in second-hand housing activity has injected some vitality into the market [8] - Future developments in the Shenzhen real estate market will require close monitoring of market dynamics and the impact of various policies [8]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's second-hand housing market recorded 5,267 transactions in August, marking six consecutive months with over 5,000 transactions, indicating a stable market trend [1] - The "iShenfang" platform launched on August 12, allowing citizens to access a one-stop "cloud viewing" service for real estate transactions, with over 20,000 users and 150,000 clicks in its first week [2] - The market is expected to see a peak in new housing supply starting in September, driven by seasonal demand and improved market confidence due to recent stock market performance [2] Market Performance - In August, the second-hand housing transactions increased by 12.8% year-on-year, while new housing transactions totaled 1,352, with 1,248 being residential properties [1] - The proportion of second-hand residential transactions slightly increased to 82.9%, with a notable rise in the segment of properties sized between 90 and 144 square meters [1] Platform Impact - The "iShenfang" platform integrates internet technology with government data to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the real estate market, benefiting both buyers and developers [2] - The platform's initial success suggests a growing trend towards digital solutions in real estate, potentially reshaping how transactions are conducted in Shenzhen [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic metals sector is under pressure, with tin and lead prices dropping by 3.15% and 2.10% respectively, indicating weak performance in the black series commodities, where coking coal and coke fell by 2.20% and 1.91% respectively [1] - The agricultural products market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% to 3339.93 points [1] Real Estate Market Insights - A report from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the real estate market in the 21st domestic state is stabilizing, with notable performance in export-dependent cities. The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 9% and 3% respectively on a month-over-month basis [2][3] - The central government has launched a city renewal plan, including old community renovations and fiscal support, aimed at boosting market confidence. Despite a slight decrease of 1% in new home sales area, first-tier and mid-west cities continue to lead in performance [2] Construction Sector Challenges - Predictions indicate a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% and 10% in new construction and completion areas, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures in the industry [3] - The report emphasizes the structural advantages of export-oriented cities and the long-term impact of policy support, although the market still faces challenges in supply-demand adjustments [3] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut since August 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The RBNZ forecasts a further decline in cash rates to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% by Q1 2026, indicating a deeper easing cycle amid growing concerns over economic prospects [3] U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing increased risk perception, with the 20-year Treasury bond auction on May 21 facing weak demand, resulting in a high yield of 5.047%, the second-highest on record [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating signifies a loss of the highest credit rating by all three major rating agencies, amplifying market risk expectations [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Despite declines in U.S. equities and bonds, a report from Japan suggesting a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance has alleviated some market anxiety, potentially benefiting U.S. Treasury markets [5] - The global bond market is undergoing significant changes, with increased risks associated with traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries, leading investors to consider assets in other countries [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with the EU condemning Israeli military actions in Gaza, and discussions around defense systems involving Canada and the U.S. [6]

Group 1 - The decline in second-hand housing prices is perceived as an emotional issue rather than having a real impact on the economy, finance, or the real estate market [1] - The focus should be on first-hand housing, as issues in this sector can significantly affect the overall economy and people's livelihoods [2] - The real estate market's biggest challenge lies in managing first-hand housing inventory, as excess inventory can lead to broader economic problems [2] Group 2 - Second-hand housing is viewed as a stable asset that does not create systemic risks, as it is widely distributed among individuals rather than concentrated in corporations [1] - The sentiment around second-hand housing is often driven by speculation and fear, rather than actual market fundamentals [1] - The government is unlikely to intervene in the second-hand housing market, focusing instead on first-hand housing to alleviate inventory issues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have entered a stabilization phase after the "golden three silver four" period, with mixed performance in transaction volumes and prices [2][3]. Transaction Data - In May 2025, Shenzhen recorded 3,162 new residential transactions, a month-on-month decline of 14.4%, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 4,687, down 18.2% month-on-month but up 18.3% year-on-year [2]. - Guangzhou's new residential transactions reached 6,573 in May 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 41% and a year-on-year increase of 29.34% [2]. - The second-hand residential market in Guangzhou saw 9,228 transactions in May 2025, with significant year-on-year growth of 17.73% [7]. Market Dynamics - Despite some localized growth, developers are generally cautious, slowing down the pace of new launches and experiencing reduced sales velocity [3][4]. - The inventory of new homes in Shenzhen decreased slightly, with 26,343 units remaining as of the end of May, reflecting a 1,719 unit drop from April [4]. - The average de-stocking period for new homes in Shenzhen is approximately 7.5 months, with significant disparities in sales performance across different districts [4]. Price Trends - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes in May was 61,200 yuan per square meter, down 2.9% month-on-month, while the listing price remained stable at 65,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - Guangzhou's real estate market is experiencing upward momentum in transaction volumes, primarily driven by urban renewal projects, with certain districts showing significant increases in demand [7]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see several quality new projects launched in June, which may help revive market activity [3][8]. - The performance of new and second-hand homes will continue to be influenced by the availability of quality listings and the overall economic fundamentals, including employment and income levels [6][8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the real estate market during the Dragon Boat Festival was flat, with a total transaction area of 266,000 square meters in 30 major cities, showing a year-on-year decline [1] - First and second-tier cities performed well, with first-tier cities seeing a 4.5% increase and second-tier cities a 3.3% increase in transaction area compared to last year [1] - In May, core cities maintained a recovery trend, with various developers using discounts and new product launches to attract buyers, supported by rapid implementation of market support policies [1][2] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the new housing transaction area during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 4.61 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [2] - The overall transaction volume of new homes in Guangzhou reached 708,300 square meters in May, setting a record for the highest monthly volume this year [3] - The Shanghai market saw a significant increase in new supply, with 40 projects launched in May, leading to a transaction area exceeding 600,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [3][4] Group 3 - High-quality new projects have become a key factor influencing short-term sales in cities and among real estate companies, with many core area projects achieving over 80% sales rates [3][5] - The demand for "good houses" is rising, with projects that meet basic living needs and offer comfort becoming increasingly popular among buyers [6] - In Shenzhen, a new project achieved a sales rate of approximately 40% on its opening day, indicating strong market interest in well-priced and well-designed properties [6][8] Group 4 - The introduction of new product types, such as low-density houses and high-end improvement products, has shown better sales performance compared to ordinary properties [7] - In May, the average price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 0.90%, with Shanghai experiencing the largest increase at 1.47% due to the launch of improvement projects [9] - The market is expected to see increased promotional efforts and a faster pace of new project launches as the mid-year sales period approaches, which may support new home sales in core cities [9]