Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic metals sector is under pressure, with tin and lead prices dropping by 3.15% and 2.10% respectively, indicating weak performance in the black series commodities, where coking coal and coke fell by 2.20% and 1.91% respectively [1] - The agricultural products market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% to 3339.93 points [1] Real Estate Market Insights - A report from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the real estate market in the 21st domestic state is stabilizing, with notable performance in export-dependent cities. The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 9% and 3% respectively on a month-over-month basis [2][3] - The central government has launched a city renewal plan, including old community renovations and fiscal support, aimed at boosting market confidence. Despite a slight decrease of 1% in new home sales area, first-tier and mid-west cities continue to lead in performance [2] Construction Sector Challenges - Predictions indicate a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% and 10% in new construction and completion areas, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures in the industry [3] - The report emphasizes the structural advantages of export-oriented cities and the long-term impact of policy support, although the market still faces challenges in supply-demand adjustments [3] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut since August 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The RBNZ forecasts a further decline in cash rates to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% by Q1 2026, indicating a deeper easing cycle amid growing concerns over economic prospects [3] U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing increased risk perception, with the 20-year Treasury bond auction on May 21 facing weak demand, resulting in a high yield of 5.047%, the second-highest on record [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating signifies a loss of the highest credit rating by all three major rating agencies, amplifying market risk expectations [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Despite declines in U.S. equities and bonds, a report from Japan suggesting a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance has alleviated some market anxiety, potentially benefiting U.S. Treasury markets [5] - The global bond market is undergoing significant changes, with increased risks associated with traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries, leading investors to consider assets in other countries [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with the EU condemning Israeli military actions in Gaza, and discussions around defense systems involving Canada and the U.S. [6]

Group 1 - The decline in second-hand housing prices is perceived as an emotional issue rather than having a real impact on the economy, finance, or the real estate market [1] - The focus should be on first-hand housing, as issues in this sector can significantly affect the overall economy and people's livelihoods [2] - The real estate market's biggest challenge lies in managing first-hand housing inventory, as excess inventory can lead to broader economic problems [2] Group 2 - Second-hand housing is viewed as a stable asset that does not create systemic risks, as it is widely distributed among individuals rather than concentrated in corporations [1] - The sentiment around second-hand housing is often driven by speculation and fear, rather than actual market fundamentals [1] - The government is unlikely to intervene in the second-hand housing market, focusing instead on first-hand housing to alleviate inventory issues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have entered a stabilization phase after the "golden three silver four" period, with mixed performance in transaction volumes and prices [2][3]. Transaction Data - In May 2025, Shenzhen recorded 3,162 new residential transactions, a month-on-month decline of 14.4%, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 4,687, down 18.2% month-on-month but up 18.3% year-on-year [2]. - Guangzhou's new residential transactions reached 6,573 in May 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 41% and a year-on-year increase of 29.34% [2]. - The second-hand residential market in Guangzhou saw 9,228 transactions in May 2025, with significant year-on-year growth of 17.73% [7]. Market Dynamics - Despite some localized growth, developers are generally cautious, slowing down the pace of new launches and experiencing reduced sales velocity [3][4]. - The inventory of new homes in Shenzhen decreased slightly, with 26,343 units remaining as of the end of May, reflecting a 1,719 unit drop from April [4]. - The average de-stocking period for new homes in Shenzhen is approximately 7.5 months, with significant disparities in sales performance across different districts [4]. Price Trends - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes in May was 61,200 yuan per square meter, down 2.9% month-on-month, while the listing price remained stable at 65,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - Guangzhou's real estate market is experiencing upward momentum in transaction volumes, primarily driven by urban renewal projects, with certain districts showing significant increases in demand [7]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see several quality new projects launched in June, which may help revive market activity [3][8]. - The performance of new and second-hand homes will continue to be influenced by the availability of quality listings and the overall economic fundamentals, including employment and income levels [6][8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the real estate market during the Dragon Boat Festival was flat, with a total transaction area of 266,000 square meters in 30 major cities, showing a year-on-year decline [1] - First and second-tier cities performed well, with first-tier cities seeing a 4.5% increase and second-tier cities a 3.3% increase in transaction area compared to last year [1] - In May, core cities maintained a recovery trend, with various developers using discounts and new product launches to attract buyers, supported by rapid implementation of market support policies [1][2] Group 2 - In Shanghai, the new housing transaction area during the Dragon Boat Festival reached 4.61 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 87.4% [2] - The overall transaction volume of new homes in Guangzhou reached 708,300 square meters in May, setting a record for the highest monthly volume this year [3] - The Shanghai market saw a significant increase in new supply, with 40 projects launched in May, leading to a transaction area exceeding 600,000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of 23.7% [3][4] Group 3 - High-quality new projects have become a key factor influencing short-term sales in cities and among real estate companies, with many core area projects achieving over 80% sales rates [3][5] - The demand for "good houses" is rising, with projects that meet basic living needs and offer comfort becoming increasingly popular among buyers [6] - In Shenzhen, a new project achieved a sales rate of approximately 40% on its opening day, indicating strong market interest in well-priced and well-designed properties [6][8] Group 4 - The introduction of new product types, such as low-density houses and high-end improvement products, has shown better sales performance compared to ordinary properties [7] - In May, the average price of new homes in first-tier cities increased by 0.90%, with Shanghai experiencing the largest increase at 1.47% due to the launch of improvement projects [9] - The market is expected to see increased promotional efforts and a faster pace of new project launches as the mid-year sales period approaches, which may support new home sales in core cities [9]