行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 《销售延续调整态势，期待政策显效 与市场筑底 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.1.19 楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布局时点已至 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524070001 春节市场成交量：一手房网签偏弱，二手房基本持平 一手房方面，2026 年除夕前一周 40 城市合计一手房成交 133.68 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the real estate market is experiencing a divergence in price trends, with new home prices remaining stable due to a significant drop in supply, while second-hand home prices are under pressure from increased listings [1][6][18]. - Total demand for real estate has stabilized after a decline of approximately 30% from 2021 to early 2023, with a shift in the composition of transactions, where the share of new homes has decreased from 80% to 50% and second-hand homes have increased from 20% to 50% [3][4]. - The supply of new homes has drastically decreased, with new construction area down nearly 80% from the peak in 2021, contributing to the stability of new home prices [6][10]. Group 2 - The demand for second-hand homes has been rising consistently, with transaction volumes hitting record highs over the past three years, and recently, the volume has increased by over 40% compared to the same period last year [16][32]. - Despite the rising demand for second-hand homes, prices have been declining due to an increase in listings, which has recently started to decline again, indicating a potential shift in the market [18][20]. - The rental yield has become more attractive compared to financing costs, with the average rental yield in 25 cities rising from 2.0% to nearly 2.4%, while mortgage rates have decreased from over 5% to around 3% [23][26][28]. Group 3 - The recent months have seen a significant reduction in the rate of price decline for second-hand homes, with the weekly decline narrowing from 0.3-0.4% to 0.11%, suggesting a potential market stabilization [33][35]. - Major cities like Shanghai and Hangzhou have already seen a turnaround in second-hand home prices, indicating that the market may be at a turning point [35]. - The article suggests that the recent price drops were largely due to speculative demand being forced out of the market, leaving behind more financially stable homeowners who are less likely to sell [31].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Guangzhou is expected to experience significant differentiation over the next 3-5 years, with core urban areas likely to see stable price increases due to population inflow and industrial advantages [2][3][4]. Market Trends - The real estate market in 2025 will show a split between core cities and suburban areas, with second-hand homes becoming the market's mainstay, while prices may fluctuate between "breaking the bottom" and signs of market stabilization [2][3][4]. - In 2025, the total transaction volume of new homes in Guangzhou is projected to decline compared to 2024, influenced by economic conditions and a lack of motivation from state-owned enterprises to lower prices [3][4]. - The second-hand housing market is expected to perform better than new homes in 2025, driven by first-time buyers and those looking to upgrade, although there may be a decrease in transactions by December [3][4]. Policy Implications - The introduction of housing vouchers and other supportive policies is anticipated to accelerate in 2026, although a single policy change may not significantly alter the market dynamics [3][4][11]. - The housing voucher system is evolving into a comprehensive tool for urban renewal and market activation, with expectations for its coverage and scale to reach historical highs in 2026 [9][11]. Investment Opportunities - 2026 is seen as a favorable time for families looking to upgrade their assets, with recommendations to focus on mature, well-connected areas and consider existing homes or nearly completed properties [6][7]. - High-end properties are expected to maintain their value, with a notable increase in transactions for luxury homes priced above 30 million yuan, indicating strong demand in this segment [17][18]. Market Dynamics - The real estate market is currently characterized by a buyer's market, with many potential buyers in a wait-and-see mode, leading to a new phase of "differentiated recovery" [6][7]. - The overall housing supply in Guangzhou has decreased significantly, with a notable increase in the proportion of existing homes, indicating a shift towards quality over quantity in housing supply [9][10]. Future Outlook - The Guangzhou real estate market is expected to stabilize and potentially recover by mid-2027, with indicators suggesting a gradual increase in transaction volumes and prices [10][12][13]. - The luxury market is anticipated to see a "big year" in 2026, with improved product offerings and a focus on high-quality developments [17][18].

中指研究院认为，当前地方政策基本已"应出尽出",今年以来各地出台超560条楼市政策，政策调控频次 虽有所减少，但更加精准。中指研究院研究主管陶淑茹表示，短期房地产政策预计将继续聚焦推动市场 止跌回稳，如购房限制性政策、降低购房成本等方面或继续优化。市场端，临近年末房企促销力度加 大，同时核心城市优质新盘预计将有所增加，市场情绪或有所修复。 对于二手房市场，在广东省住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉看来，考虑到挂牌量在高位，新房"好 房子"的竞争优势比较突出，对二手房市场的影响还存在。因此，预计二手住房价格环比继续承压。不 过，近期的市场迹象是，业主大尺度降价出售的意愿下降，挂牌量攀升开始缓解，售转租的比例上升， 法拍房清仓率开始攀升。另外，随着投资于人、以人为本的新型城镇化等各项政策落地实施，新市民、 年轻人在本地落地扎根的积极性上升，对低总价、区位优的二手住房需求上升，全国及重点城市二手房 交易连续两年上升，二手房同环比跌幅扩大的趋势会缓解。 乐有家研究中心的数据显示，11月深圳一二手住宅网签总量为7116套，环比上涨3.9%。深圳贝壳研究 院院长肖小平表示，11月市场成交活跃度是政策红利、城市利好与市场规律 ...

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market experienced a decline in both new and second-hand residential transactions in October, marking a cooling trend during the traditional peak season [1][3][6] - The decrease in transactions is attributed to several factors, including the impact of the National Day holiday, reduced availability of attractive properties, and a high base effect from last year's supportive policies [1][3][6] New Housing Market - In October, new housing transactions in Shenzhen totaled 3,352 units, a significant month-on-month decline of 29%, with residential sales at 2,651 units, down 14.1% [3][6] - Despite the drop in sales, new housing supply remained active, with 4,143 new units approved for sale, reflecting a 2.3% increase month-on-month, and residential supply surged by 37.9% [3][6] Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market also saw a decline, with 5,276 transactions recorded, a 6.8% decrease, and residential sales at 4,196 units, down 7.7% [5][6] - The decline was influenced by the holiday season and a reduction in buyer enthusiasm following a previously active September [5][6] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - Despite the October downturn, the market showed signs of resilience, with second-hand housing transactions remaining above 5,500 units for eight consecutive months, indicating sustained demand [6][8] - The average transaction price for second-hand residential properties rose to 58,900 yuan per square meter, a 0.3% increase month-on-month, although the listing price slightly decreased by 1% [6][8] - The announcement of Shenzhen hosting the 2026 APEC meeting has sparked renewed interest in the real estate market, leading to a strong start in November with significant increases in both new and second-hand property transactions [7][8] Policy Environment - Recent policy signals from central and local governments indicate a focus on high-quality real estate development and risk management, with over 510 new policies introduced this year [8] - The market is expected to face pressure in the short term due to high base effects and increased supply, but a gradual recovery in transaction volumes is anticipated as year-end approaches [8]

Core Insights - The Shenzhen real estate market in week 41 (October 6 - October 12, 2025) shows a stark contrast between the cooling of the new housing market and the warming of the second-hand housing market [1] Group 1: New Housing Market - In week 41, Shenzhen's new residential market recorded a total of 167 transactions, a significant decrease of 57.51% compared to the previous week, with a transaction area of 16,400 square meters, down 57.25% [2] - The transaction volume has sharply declined from a peak of over 400 units in week 38, marking the lowest point in the observed period [2] - The new housing market saw 420 units registered for sale, reflecting a 65.35% increase in registration, with a registered area of 47,100 square meters, up 89.29%, indicating potential market demand despite the current transaction barriers [3] Group 2: Second-Hand Housing Market - In contrast, the second-hand residential market in Shenzhen showed increased activity, with 740 transactions in week 41, representing an 84.08% increase in transaction volume and a transaction area of 73,900 square meters, up 83.11% [4] - The total number of transactions for both new and second-hand housing reached 907 units, with a ratio of 0.23:1, highlighting the relative heat of the second-hand market [6] - The recent uptick in second-hand housing transactions indicates a release of market demand, contributing positively to the overall real estate landscape [6] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in new housing transactions may be influenced by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, while the rise in second-hand housing activity has injected some vitality into the market [8] - Future developments in the Shenzhen real estate market will require close monitoring of market dynamics and the impact of various policies [8]

Core Insights - Shenzhen's second-hand housing market recorded 5,267 transactions in August, marking six consecutive months with over 5,000 transactions, indicating a stable market trend [1] - The "iShenfang" platform launched on August 12, allowing citizens to access a one-stop "cloud viewing" service for real estate transactions, with over 20,000 users and 150,000 clicks in its first week [2] - The market is expected to see a peak in new housing supply starting in September, driven by seasonal demand and improved market confidence due to recent stock market performance [2] Market Performance - In August, the second-hand housing transactions increased by 12.8% year-on-year, while new housing transactions totaled 1,352, with 1,248 being residential properties [1] - The proportion of second-hand residential transactions slightly increased to 82.9%, with a notable rise in the segment of properties sized between 90 and 144 square meters [1] Platform Impact - The "iShenfang" platform integrates internet technology with government data to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the real estate market, benefiting both buyers and developers [2] - The platform's initial success suggests a growing trend towards digital solutions in real estate, potentially reshaping how transactions are conducted in Shenzhen [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The basic metals sector is under pressure, with tin and lead prices dropping by 3.15% and 2.10% respectively, indicating weak performance in the black series commodities, where coking coal and coke fell by 2.20% and 1.91% respectively [1] - The agricultural products market showed mixed results, with major indices experiencing slight declines, such as the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.02% to 3339.93 points [1] Real Estate Market Insights - A report from Goldman Sachs highlighted that the real estate market in the 21st domestic state is stabilizing, with notable performance in export-dependent cities. The transaction volume for new and second-hand homes increased by 9% and 3% respectively on a month-over-month basis [2][3] - The central government has launched a city renewal plan, including old community renovations and fiscal support, aimed at boosting market confidence. Despite a slight decrease of 1% in new home sales area, first-tier and mid-west cities continue to lead in performance [2] Construction Sector Challenges - Predictions indicate a year-over-year decline of approximately 20% and 10% in new construction and completion areas, reflecting ongoing supply-side pressures in the industry [3] - The report emphasizes the structural advantages of export-oriented cities and the long-term impact of policy support, although the market still faces challenges in supply-demand adjustments [3] Global Economic Context - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, marking the sixth consecutive cut since August 2024, with a cumulative reduction of 225 basis points [3] - The RBNZ forecasts a further decline in cash rates to 2.92% by Q4 2025 and 2.85% by Q1 2026, indicating a deeper easing cycle amid growing concerns over economic prospects [3] U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing increased risk perception, with the 20-year Treasury bond auction on May 21 facing weak demand, resulting in a high yield of 5.047%, the second-highest on record [4] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating signifies a loss of the highest credit rating by all three major rating agencies, amplifying market risk expectations [4] Investor Sentiment and Market Reactions - Despite declines in U.S. equities and bonds, a report from Japan suggesting a potential reduction in long-term bond issuance has alleviated some market anxiety, potentially benefiting U.S. Treasury markets [5] - The global bond market is undergoing significant changes, with increased risks associated with traditionally safe U.S. Treasuries, leading investors to consider assets in other countries [6] Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, with the EU condemning Israeli military actions in Gaza, and discussions around defense systems involving Canada and the U.S. [6]

Group 1 - The decline in second-hand housing prices is perceived as an emotional issue rather than having a real impact on the economy, finance, or the real estate market [1] - The focus should be on first-hand housing, as issues in this sector can significantly affect the overall economy and people's livelihoods [2] - The real estate market's biggest challenge lies in managing first-hand housing inventory, as excess inventory can lead to broader economic problems [2] Group 2 - Second-hand housing is viewed as a stable asset that does not create systemic risks, as it is widely distributed among individuals rather than concentrated in corporations [1] - The sentiment around second-hand housing is often driven by speculation and fear, rather than actual market fundamentals [1] - The government is unlikely to intervene in the second-hand housing market, focusing instead on first-hand housing to alleviate inventory issues [2]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate markets in Guangzhou and Shenzhen have entered a stabilization phase after the "golden three silver four" period, with mixed performance in transaction volumes and prices [2][3]. Transaction Data - In May 2025, Shenzhen recorded 3,162 new residential transactions, a month-on-month decline of 14.4%, while second-hand residential transactions totaled 4,687, down 18.2% month-on-month but up 18.3% year-on-year [2]. - Guangzhou's new residential transactions reached 6,573 in May 2025, marking a month-on-month increase of 41% and a year-on-year increase of 29.34% [2]. - The second-hand residential market in Guangzhou saw 9,228 transactions in May 2025, with significant year-on-year growth of 17.73% [7]. Market Dynamics - Despite some localized growth, developers are generally cautious, slowing down the pace of new launches and experiencing reduced sales velocity [3][4]. - The inventory of new homes in Shenzhen decreased slightly, with 26,343 units remaining as of the end of May, reflecting a 1,719 unit drop from April [4]. - The average de-stocking period for new homes in Shenzhen is approximately 7.5 months, with significant disparities in sales performance across different districts [4]. Price Trends - In Shenzhen, the average transaction price for second-hand homes in May was 61,200 yuan per square meter, down 2.9% month-on-month, while the listing price remained stable at 65,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - Guangzhou's real estate market is experiencing upward momentum in transaction volumes, primarily driven by urban renewal projects, with certain districts showing significant increases in demand [7]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to see several quality new projects launched in June, which may help revive market activity [3][8]. - The performance of new and second-hand homes will continue to be influenced by the availability of quality listings and the overall economic fundamentals, including employment and income levels [6][8].