集运市场运价

Search documents
建信期货集运指数日报-20250814
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:26
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Spot freight rates have likely reached their peak and are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The主力10 contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Shipping companies have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively high during the off - season. The freight rates this year may be even lower during the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. The freight rates of most routes continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The threat from the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated again, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Trade Policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.7% from August 4th to 11th, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 4.2% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentioned the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 13th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. for different contracts [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but does not provide detailed data analysis [12][16][19]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:29
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The market has weak expectations for the price increase in July, and it remains to be seen whether other shipping companies will follow the price - hike. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the price increase in the peak season is difficult to be falsified in the short - term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while high - short opportunities in the traditional off - season in October are worth attention [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: Shipping companies have announced price increases for early - July freight rates, with quotes ranging from $3860 - $4535, and a median of around $4000. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have lowered their opening prices. The market has weak expectations for the price increase, and it's necessary to observe the implementation in July and other shipping companies' follow - up. The price increase in the peak season may be supported by fundamentals, and the 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month contract in the traditional off - season offers high - short opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical events: Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. The international oil price dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [9][10] - Shipping market: From June 16 - 20, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust, with more falling than rising freight rates. The European economy is recovering slowly, and the trade prospects are uncertain. The North American economy's recovery is not optimistic due to weak consumer data. Freight rates on various routes have different degrees of decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route's SCFIS increased by 14.1% from June 16 to June 23, while the US - West route's SCFIS decreased by 28.4% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on June 26 shows different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 4.12% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, container ship orders, and shipping rates between Shanghai and European ports [17][18][21]