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集运早报-20251029
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On Monday night, multiple shipping companies reduced prices, leading to a downward oscillation in the Tuesday trading session. Currently, there is no obvious improvement in cargo volume, but shipping companies have implemented numerous sailings cancellations. The market anticipates that the freight rates in November will settle between $2000 - $2200 (1400 - 1540 points). Overall, driven by subsequent price - support and contract - signing factors, it is recommended to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for contracts 12 and 02. Contract 12 has a neutral valuation, and trading should focus on the "announced increase - implementation - announced increase - implementation" cycles. For contract 04, a strategy of shorting on rallies is advised [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - EC2512 closed at 1788.3 with a 0.75% increase, a basis of - 475.6, trading volume of 26019, and an open interest of 28900 with an increase of 905 - EC2602 closed at 1548.7 with a 1.46% decrease, a basis of - 236.0, trading volume of 6213, and an open interest of 13910 with an increase of 772 - EC2604 closed at 1162.7 with a 1.37% decrease, a basis of 150.0, trading volume of 2279, and an open interest of 14279 with an increase of 133 - EC2606 closed at 1374.0 with a 0.94% decrease, a basis of - 61.3, trading volume of 154, and an open interest of 1402 with an increase of 31 [1] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2510 - 2512 spread was - 1144.2, with a daily change of - 1136.6, and previous values of - 1788.3, - 644.1, - 693.2 - EC2512 - 2602 spread was 36.2, with a daily change of 34.2, and previous values of 239.6, 203.4, 230.0 [1] Spot Indexes - SCEIS was updated on 2025/10/27, reaching 1312.71 points, up 15.11% from the previous period, which had a 10.52% increase - SCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at $1246/TEU, up 8.82% from the previous period, which had a 7.21% increase - CCFI (European Line) was updated on 2025/10/24, at 1293.12 points, up 1.99% from the previous period, which had a 1.49% decrease - NCFI was updated on 2025/10/24, at 822.3 points, up 2.38% from the previous period, which had a 14.96% increase [1] Recent European Line Quotations - Currently, downstream customers are booking cargo space for early November (Week 45). In Week 44, offline quotes were PA $1400, GEMINI $1600, and OA $1800 - Shipping companies announced price increases to $2500 - $2700 in November, with an average equivalent of about 1800 points on the futures market. MSK opened bookings at $2350, in line with expectations. Subsequently, shipping companies reduced prices to $1900 - $2300 - On Monday, HMM cut prices to $1900, HPL to $2335, ONE to $2135, and MSC to $2265 - On Tuesday, MSK dropped to $2200, OOCL to $2150, and YML on a single route to $1900 [1] News - On 10/28, Hamas militants fired at Israeli troops in Gaza, and the Israeli Prime Minister ordered a strong counter - attack - On 10/29, Hamas denied involvement in the attack on Israeli troops in Rafah, southern Gaza, and stated its commitment to the current cease - fire agreement. It also claimed that Israeli military attacks violated the cease - fire and called on mediators to pressure Israel to stop the violations - On 10/29, US Vice - President Vance stated that the cease - fire agreement was still in effect [1]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250814
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 02:26
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Spot freight rates have likely reached their peak and are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The主力10 contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Shipping companies have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively high during the off - season. The freight rates this year may be even lower during the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. The freight rates of most routes continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The threat from the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated again, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Trade Policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.7% from August 4th to 11th, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 4.2% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentioned the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 13th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. for different contracts [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but does not provide detailed data analysis [12][16][19]
建信期货集运指数日报-20250627
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 01:29
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: June 27, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core Viewpoint - The market has weak expectations for the price increase in July, and it remains to be seen whether other shipping companies will follow the price - hike. Considering the strong resilience of European export demand, stable shipping capacity supply, and the stabilization of quotes and container volumes, the price increase in the peak season is difficult to be falsified in the short - term and may be supported by fundamentals. The 08 contract may be undervalued, while high - short opportunities in the traditional off - season in October are worth attention [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: Shipping companies have announced price increases for early - July freight rates, with quotes ranging from $3860 - $4535, and a median of around $4000. However, Maersk and CMA CGM have lowered their opening prices. The market has weak expectations for the price increase, and it's necessary to observe the implementation in July and other shipping companies' follow - up. The price increase in the peak season may be supported by fundamentals, and the 08 contract may be undervalued, while the 10 - month contract in the traditional off - season offers high - short opportunities [8] 2. Industry News - Geopolitical events: Iran launched a missile attack on a US military base in Qatar. Trump thanked Iran for the advance notice and called for peace. The international oil price dropped by about 9%, and the US stock market rose. Trump claimed to have "completely destroyed" Iranian nuclear facilities, but Iran said the damage was not as serious. China strongly condemned the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities [9][10] - Shipping market: From June 16 - 20, the Chinese export container shipping market continued to adjust, with more falling than rising freight rates. The European economy is recovering slowly, and the trade prospects are uncertain. The North American economy's recovery is not optimistic due to weak consumer data. Freight rates on various routes have different degrees of decline [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - SCFIS: The European route's SCFIS increased by 14.1% from June 16 to June 23, while the US - West route's SCFIS decreased by 28.4% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of multiple contracts on June 26 shows different price changes, with the EC2512 contract having the largest increase of 4.12% [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on global container shipping capacity, container ship orders, and shipping rates between Shanghai and European ports [17][18][21]