| | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.5 | -1.11% | -120.9 | 212 | | 2566 | | | | EC2602 | | 1686.8 | -3.39% | -176.2 | 27798 | | 32483 | -158 -582 | | | EC2604 | | 1112.7 | -3.22% | 397.9 | 7161 | | 19928 | 271 | | | EC2606 | | 1290.0 | -1.28% | 220.6 | 279 | | 2305 | -30 | | | EC2608 | | 1462.4 | -1.18% | 48.2 | 216 | | 1351 | -90 | | | EC2610 | | 1041.2 | -1.20% | 469 ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | हिंदी को प्रति | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 裏 | 昨日成交星 | | 昨日持仓昼 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1649.8 | -0.01 % | -139.2 | 274 | | 2724 | -223 | | | EC2602 | | 1746.0 | 4.06% | -235.4 | 28275 | | 33065 | 1401 | | | EC2604 | | 1149.7 | 3.95% | 360.9 | 7432 | | 19657 | -276 | | | EC2606 | | 1306.7 | 3.64% | 203.9 | 6/9 | | 2335 | - 20 | | | EC2608 | | 1479.9 | 3.37% | 30.7 | 402 | | 1441 | -114 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 10 ...

12/10 以色列军队对目前中其控制的加沙汗尤尼斯部分地区发动了空袭和炮击 12/10 哈马斯官员表示：解除巴勒斯坦人的武装就等于夺走他们的生命。 隼运昼报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/11 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持会 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | EC2512 | | 1655.1 | -0.58% | -146.0 | 321 | | 3169 | -114 | | | EC2602 | | 1665.2 | 2.80% | -156.1 | 35894 | | 31382 | રિકેટ | | | EC2604 | | 1080.7 | 0.66% | 428.4 | 3703 | | 19219 | -159 | | | EC2606 | | 1225.6 | 0.53% | 283.5 | 380 | | 2274 | -69 | | | EC2608 | | 137 ...

EEEEAA | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/5 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 EC2512 | | 昨日收盘价 1649.1 | 涨跌 -0.27% | 基差 -165.5 | 昨日成交量 270 | | 昨日持仓量 3731 | 持仓变动 -82 | | | EC2602 | | 1585.0 | 2.92% | -101.4 | 27304 | | 34222 | -786 | | | EC2604 | | 1090.1 | 0.65% | 393.6 | 2881 | | 19129 | 132 | | | EC2606 | | 1255.1 | 0.05% | 228.6 | 178 | | 2141 | -26 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1385.6 | 0.40% | 98.1 | 125 | | 1549 | -28 | | | EC2610 | | 1040.2 | -0.19% | 443.5 | 297 | | 3961 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December's cabin space, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase. - The EC2602 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot market in the short - term, and there is a chance for a higher price if the peak season is realized. Reasons include the late Chinese New Year, strong cargo volume on the European route this year, and the contract covering a period with a potential seasonal price peak. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1633.6 with a - 0.19% change; EC2602 at 1534.2 with a 2.719% change; EC2604 at 1072.1 with a - 0.55% change; EC2606 at 1233.2 with a - 0.31% change; EC2608 at 1374.9 with a 1.30% change; EC2610 at 1032.6 with a - 0.06% change [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: For example, EC2512 - 2504 was 561.5, EC2512 - 2602 was 99.4, and EC2502 - 2604 was 462.1, with corresponding changes compared to previous days and weeks [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The spot price (per point) on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period. SCF on November 28, 2025, was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71%; CCFI was 1449.34 points, up 1.14%; NCFI was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% [2]. - **European Route Spot Situation**: In December, the early - month price increase failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and the current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points. Some shipping companies adjusted prices, and it is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January's cabin space in early December. On Tuesday, MSK's opening price for Week 51 was 2400 dollars, up 200 dollars from the previous week, equivalent to 1660 points [4]. Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the second phase of the agreement. - On November 29, Lebanon's Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on its senior commander [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are benchmarked against the second - half of December cabin space, and the prices are expected to be stable with a slight increase. The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there are expectations for the peak season. Despite high capacity, the spot price in January is not expected to be overly pessimistic due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the price cut in December benefiting the price increase in January. If the peak season is gradually realized, the 02 contract may have more upside potential. The 04 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512 closed at 1636.7 yesterday, up 0.34%, with a basis of - 153.1, a trading volume of 705, an open interest of 4286, and an open interest change of - 215. EC2602 closed at 1492.5, up 1.40% (0.54% might be a misprint), with a basis of - 8.8, a trading volume of 26585, an open interest of 38244, and an open interest change of - 1867 (- 129 might be a misprint). EC2604 closed at 1078.0, with a basis of 405.7, a trading volume of 4192, and an open interest of 18614. EC2606 closed at 1237.0, up 1.79%, with a basis of 246.7, a trading volume of 278, an open interest of 2170, and an open interest change of - 84. EC2608 closed at 1357.2, up 1.36%, with a basis of 126.5, a trading volume of 102, an open interest of 1622, and an open interest change of - 8. EC2610 closed at 1033.2, up 1.19%, with a basis of 450.5, a trading volume of 441, an open interest of 3888, and an open interest change of - 86 [2] - For the month - spread, EC2512 - 2504 was 558.7, down 0.2 from the previous day and down 82.0 week - on - week. EC2512 - 2602 was 144.2, down 15.0 from the previous day and down 7.6 week - on - week. EC2502 - 2604 was 414.5, up 14.8 from the previous day and down 8.4 week - on - week [2] Spot Market - The SCFI (European line) index on December 1, 2025, was 1483.65 points, down 9.50% from the previous period, with a price of 1404 dollars/TEU. The CCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period. The NCFI index on November 28, 2025, was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Recent European Line Spot Situation - The price increase in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the disk. In Week 50, MSK's opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the disk. YML cut the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased the price by 200 to 2600 dollars. In the second half of December, MSC announced a price increase to 3500 dollars, and ONE increased the price to 2800 dollars. Shipping companies are expected to announce price increases for January cabin space in early December [4] Related News - On November 26, the mediators of the Gaza cease - fire agreed to stop violations and implement the agreement. On November 29, the Lebanese Hezbollah said it would retaliate against Israel for the attack on a senior commander [5]

葉运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 募 | 昨日成交量 | | 昨日持仓量 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 EC2602 | | 1631.1 | 1.15% 6.07% | 8.3 | 1737 4146/ | | 4501 40111 | -7/31 -28-7 | | | EC2604 | | 1471.9 1072.2 | 1.67% | 167.5 567.2 | 7369 | | 18743 | 42 | | | EC2606 | | 1215.2 | 2.11% | 424.2 | ਦੀ ਰੇ | | 2254 | 63 | | 期货 | EC2608 | | 1339.0 | 2.1 5% | 300.4 | 251 | | 1630 | -20 | | | EC2610 | | 1021.0 | 0.87% | 618.4 | ਰੇਟੇ 4 | | 3975 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the futures market declined significantly due to the near - end price and resumption of shipping expectations. The EC2512 contract is moving towards the delivery logic and follows the spot price, with an expected range of around 1550 - 1600 points. Contracts P2 and P3 are related to the second - half of December cabin space, and the freight rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3]. - The EC2602 contract has a low valuation. The key to going long is to wait for the signal of cargo volume explosion. There is no overly pessimistic expectation because the cargo volume on the European route has been good this year, and the price cut in December for inventory stocking is beneficial for the price increase in January. If the peak season is realized later, the EC2602 contract may have more upside potential [3]. - The EC2604 contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data | Contract | Yesterday's Price | Change | Yesterday's Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 | 1612.9 | - 0.59% | 1493 | 5232 | - 302 | | EC2602 | 1387.7 | 0.02% | 24978 | 42968 | - 1089 | | EC2604 | 1054.6 | - 1.64% | 566 | 18701 | 703 | | EC2606 | 1190.1 | - 4.94% | 719 | 2186 | 200 | | EC2608 | 1310.8 | - 5.43% | 433 | 1650 | 32 | | EC2610 | 1012.2 | - 4.13% | 1174 | 3700 | 611 | [2] Month - spread Data | Month - spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Day - on - Day Change | Week - on - Week Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2512 - 2504 | 558.3 | 550.2 | 523.6 | 8.1 | - 42.3 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 225.2 | 235.0 | 196.5 | - 9.8 | 102.0 | | EC2502 - 2604 | 333.1 | 315.2 | 327.1 | 17.9 | - 144.3 | [2] Index Data | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/24 | Points | 1639.37 | 1357.67 | 1504.80 | 20.75% | - 9.78% | | SCFI (European Route) | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | USD/TEU | 1367 | 1417 | 1323 | - 3.55% | 7.11% | | CCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 1432.96 | 1403.64 | 1366.85 | 2.09% | 2.69% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/11/21 | Points | 951.65 | 979.34 | 911.73 | - 2.83% | 7.42% | [2] Recent European Route Spot Situation - Week 49: The offline quotes of GEMINI and PA alliances are between 2300 - 2500, and OA is between 2300 - 2600, with an average of about 2400 US dollars (equivalent to about 1650 points on the futures market) [4]. - Week 50: Maersk opened at 2200 US dollars, PA dropped to 1900 - 2200, and OA remained at 2400 - 2500. The central price may be between 2200 - 2300 US dollars (1550 - 1600 points). On Thursday, YML cut the price to 1900, and ONE cut it to 2200 (with a combined volume of 2000 - 2100) [4]. Related News - On November 28, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli army for shooting and killing two Palestinians in the West Bank [5]. - On November 27, the Israeli army stated that it had attacked multiple Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon [5].

串12-1日运九高企可 02估值中性偏低。核心在干短期难以证明,征伪阳季不旺，今年过年较晚。旺季启动推迟中属正常：今年欧线货量整体较好, 能会压制高度，但我们不给予过分想观预期。后续观察揽货情况，运价高点多在春节前4-5周，若后续赶季逐步兑现，02或有更高想象空间。 04仍建议逢高空思路对待。 近期欧线现货情况: Week48整体均值2200美金 (折盘1540点左右) Week49线下GEMINI和PA联盟报价在2400-2500之间，OA在2500-2700美金，均值约2500美金 (折盘1750点左右) 。 周一, OOCL调降至2530美金, CMA调降至2645美金。 点评: 周 -盘面震荡运行 12估值中性，持仓量明显减少, 将逐步走向交割逻辑, 12月第一周中枢约2400-2500美金，后续或以企稳为主 카드 | | | | | A B A B | Call Collection | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/11/ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market on Wednesday showed a weak and fluctuating trend. Under the pressure of high capacity in December and January, short - sellers were actively trading, and the peak - season price increase was limited [2]. - The valuation of the 12 - contract is neutral and will gradually follow the delivery logic, with a significant decrease in open interest. The 02 - contract is expected to mainly follow the spot price in the short term. Before the peak season in December is realized, it's hard for the market to believe January is still a peak season. However, considering the late Chinese New Year this year and the good overall volume of China - Europe shipping, it's difficult to prove or disprove the non - peak season in the short term. If the peak season is gradually realized later, the 02 - contract may have more upside potential. The 04 - contract is still recommended to be shorted on rallies and is more likely to fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Contract Prices and Changes**: The EC2512 contract closed at 1763.3, down 0.35% with a basis of - 405.6; the EC2602 contract closed at 1640.1, down 2.26% with a basis of - 282.4; the EC2604 contract closed at 1162.7, down 1.43% with a basis of 195.0; the EC2606 contract closed at 1382.0, down 0.22% with a basis of - 24.3; the EC2608 contract closed at 1490.1, down 1.29% with a basis of - 132.4; the EC2610 contract closed at 1110.0, down 0.18% with a basis of 247.7 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 2452, and the open interest was 9568, a decrease of 864; the trading volume of EC2602 was 18687, and the open interest was 40244, an increase of 1384; the trading volume of EC2604 was 2358, and the open interest was 15944, a decrease of 201; the trading volume of EC2606 was 92, and the open interest was 1582, a decrease of 3; the trading volume of EC2608 was 118, and the open interest was 1212, an increase of 51; the trading volume of EC2610 was 264, and the open interest was 2520 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 600.6, with a daily increase of 10.7 and a weekly increase of 42.3; the EC2512 - 2602 spread was 123.2, with a daily increase of 31.8 and a weekly increase of 67.6; the EC2502 - 2604 spread was 477.4, with a daily decrease of 21.1 and a weekly decrease of 25.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Indices and Changes**: The SCHIS index (updated every Monday) was 1357.67 on November 17, 2025, down 9.78% from the previous period; the SCFI (European line, updated weekly) was 1417 dollars/TEU on November 14, 2025, up 7.11% from the previous period; the CCFI was 1403.64 points on November 14, 2025, up 2.69% from the previous period; the NCFI was 979.34 on November 14, 2025, up 7.42% from the previous period [2]. Recent European Line Quotations - **Week 48**: Currently, MSK's opening price is 2000 dollars, PA mainly follows the previous price, and OA has not adjusted the price. The average price is 2230 dollars (equivalent to about 1560 points on the futures market). MSK and MSC have issued price - increase letters for December, and other shipping companies may follow this week [4]. - **Week 49**: On Tuesday, MSK opened at 2500 dollars for the first week of December, in line with expectations. On Wednesday, MSC reduced the price to 2465 dollars, and HMM reduced the price to 2506 dollars [5]. Related News - The White House is about to announce a major new peace agreement with Russia, which is expected to end the three - and - a - half - year Russia - Ukraine conflict. An agreement framework is expected to be reached by the end of this month, or even "as soon as this week" [6].