丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 滔搏发布 FY2026Q3（2025 年 9 月-2025 年 11 月）零售数据，零售流水同比高单下滑，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，直营门店毛销售面积较上一季末减少 1.3%，较去年同期减少 13.4%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490524110001 SFC：BUU942 于旭辉 柯睿 陈信志 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨滔搏（06110.HK） [Table_Title] 经营短期承压，修复仍需时间 报告要点 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 滔搏（06110.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 经营短期承压，修复仍需时间 事件评论 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-12-25 港股研究丨公司点评 [Table_Rank] 投资评级 买入丨维持 公司基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 当前股价（HKD） 2.98 注： ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][2]. Core Views - The company's profit adjustments due to negative factors such as retail pressure, rising expense ratios, and unclear subsidy expectations are gradually being digested, indicating potential defensive value at the current position. Anticipation exists for profit elasticity driven by future retail improvements. The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 360 million, 430 million, and 480 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 16, 13, and 12 times [2][5]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 2.39 billion, 197 million, and 162 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -3.6%, -42.7%, and -46.6%. In Q2 alone, revenues, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items were 1.09 billion, 27 million, and -1 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -3.5%, -71.4%, and -102.0% [5][2]. Revenue and Profitability Analysis - The company's revenue in H1 was pressured primarily by the main brand and group purchases, with a year-on-year decline of 9.6%. The H1 performance of the main brand was negatively impacted by a decrease in same-store traffic, leading to a year-on-year decline in single-store annual efficiency of 11%. The company also experienced a net closure of 4 stores compared to the end of 2024 [11][5]. - In terms of profitability, Q2 maintained a gross margin of 66.0% year-on-year, attributed to effective discount control across channels. However, the net profit margin was pressured by high operating expenses, resulting in a year-on-year decline of 5.9 percentage points to 2.5% [11][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][2]. Core Views - The company's profits are under short-term pressure due to negative factors such as retail challenges, rising expense ratios, and unclear subsidy expectations. However, the current position shows defensive value, with expectations for profit elasticity as retail improves in the future. The projected net profit for the company from 2025 to 2027 is estimated at 530 million, 610 million, and 690 million yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 9, and 8 times [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenues, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 5.15 billion, 490 million, and 440 million yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -2%, -29%, and -28%. In Q4, the company achieved revenues, net profit attributable to the parent company, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 1.62 billion, 80 million, and 80 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of +2%, -44%, and -37% [4][2]. Profitability Analysis - The Q4 gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 63.4%, while the annual gross margin slightly increased by 0.3 percentage points to 65%. The Q4 net profit margin decreased by 4.1 percentage points year-on-year to 4.9%, and the annual net profit margin decreased by 3.7 percentage points to 9.6% [4][2].