文 | 刘世锦国家"十五五"规划专家委员会委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任 宽松的货币政策、扩张的政府投资——这两大工具长期以来被视为应对经济下行的"标准答案"。但回顾过去十几 年的数据，我们却发现一个令人困惑的现象：M2持续走高，政府投资持续加码，而居民消费却始终低迷，经济增 速也一路放缓。钱去了哪里？刺激为什么失效？这不仅是宏观政策制定者需要面对的问题，也与每一个普通人的 生活息息相关——关乎就业、收入，也关乎未来的保障。 越刺激，需求越不足？ 流行观点普遍认为，如果总需求不足，就需要以宽松的货币政策和扩大政府投资的财政政策来刺激经济。但从数 据上看，持续扩张的货币政策和财政政策似乎并未改变我国需求不足、经济下行的趋势。 数据显示，在过去十几年间，货币刺激的力度一直没有减弱。从2008年开始，我们的广义货币M2增长，就长期跑 赢了名义GDP。国际金融危机结束后，宽松的货币政策也并未退出。到2024年，M2已经超过了313万亿元，是当 年名义GDP的2.3倍。 这就形成了一个恶性循环：面对经济下行问题，我们不断刺激投资，投资最终带来新产能，但本就低迷的最终需 求难以消化新的产能，就会面临严重的产能过剩问题， ...

Group 1 - The continuous effectiveness of macro policies and financial support for the real economy has led to increased business activity and positive price changes in some industries, indicating a recovery in personal consumption and investment demand [2][7] - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) both showed a narrowing decline year-on-year, with the core CPI rising by 1% for the first time in 19 months [3][4] - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year in September, but the decline was 0.6 percentage points less than the previous month, indicating a stabilization in some industry prices due to improved supply-demand structures [5][6] Group 2 - The broad money supply (M2) and social financing scale maintained high growth rates in September, supporting a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [2][7] - The M2 balance reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with an 8.4% year-on-year increase, reflecting the effectiveness of proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [7][8] - Experts suggest that the current economic challenge is not merely a lack of total demand but a structural imbalance, emphasizing the need for a shift in fiscal spending towards improving livelihoods and consumption [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the positive changes in China's macroeconomic environment, driven by effective policies and financial support for the real economy, leading to increased business activity and a recovery in consumer demand [3][6]. Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, but the decline was less than the previous month, with a core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.0%, marking the first return to a 1% increase in nearly 19 months [5][6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stabilization in some industry prices [8][9]. Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The People's Bank of China reported that the growth rates of M2 and social financing remained high, supporting the economic recovery. As of September, M2 reached 335.38 trillion yuan, with an annual growth rate of 8.4% [10][11]. - The M1 balance was 113.15 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating increased business activity and consumer demand [10]. Industry Analysis - Certain industries, such as coal processing and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, saw a reduction in price declines, suggesting improved market conditions and effective capacity management [9]. - The article notes that the structural upgrade of industries and the release of consumer potential are contributing to price increases in specific sectors, such as a 14.7% rise in the price of arts and crafts products [9]. Policy Implications - The government is focusing on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the quality of supply, with an emphasis on consumer spending and effective investment [6][12]. - Experts suggest that future fiscal policies should prioritize improving living standards and social security, shifting from investment-driven growth to consumer-oriented strategies [12].