文 | 刘世锦国家"十五五"规划专家委员会委员、国务院发展研究中心原副主任 宽松的货币政策、扩张的政府投资——这两大工具长期以来被视为应对经济下行的"标准答案"。但回顾过去十几 年的数据，我们却发现一个令人困惑的现象：M2持续走高，政府投资持续加码，而居民消费却始终低迷，经济增 速也一路放缓。钱去了哪里？刺激为什么失效？这不仅是宏观政策制定者需要面对的问题，也与每一个普通人的 生活息息相关——关乎就业、收入，也关乎未来的保障。 越刺激，需求越不足？ 流行观点普遍认为，如果总需求不足，就需要以宽松的货币政策和扩大政府投资的财政政策来刺激经济。但从数 据上看，持续扩张的货币政策和财政政策似乎并未改变我国需求不足、经济下行的趋势。 数据显示，在过去十几年间，货币刺激的力度一直没有减弱。从2008年开始，我们的广义货币M2增长，就长期跑 赢了名义GDP。国际金融危机结束后，宽松的货币政策也并未退出。到2024年，M2已经超过了313万亿元，是当 年名义GDP的2.3倍。 这就形成了一个恶性循环：面对经济下行问题，我们不断刺激投资，投资最终带来新产能，但本就低迷的最终需 求难以消化新的产能，就会面临严重的产能过剩问题， ...

Group 1: Oil Price Dynamics - The article discusses the historical context of low oil prices before the 1970s, highlighting that the average retail price of gasoline in the US was about 36 cents per gallon in 1970, which is equivalent to approximately $2.5 today when adjusted for inflation [2] - The low oil prices prior to the 1970s were attributed to the initial use of oil primarily for lighting and the discovery of easily extractable oil reserves in the Middle East, which contributed to a significant expansion of the petrochemical industry [3][5] - The article argues against the notion that capitalist countries intentionally suppressed oil prices to exploit oil-producing nations, suggesting instead that low prices were a strategy to expand market size and create consumer habits [6][8] Group 2: Price Competition in Japan - The article highlights the phenomenon of price competition in Japan from 2000 to 2020, where a discount store maintained prices at 100 yen for most products, reflecting a long-term deflationary environment [11][12] - It discusses the pricing strategy of bottled water in Japan, where a 2L bottle is often cheaper than a 550ml bottle due to competitive pricing tactics employed by convenience stores to attract customers [14][15] - The pricing dynamics illustrate how retailers use loss leaders and competitive pricing strategies to maintain customer traffic and increase overall sales, despite the apparent price distortion [17][18] Group 3: Historical Context of Milk Disposal - The article recounts the "milk dumping" events during the Great Depression in the US, where farmers disposed of milk due to plummeting demand and prices, leading to a complex interplay of market forces and protests [19][21] - It explains that the milk dumping was not solely due to market conditions but also involved organized actions by farmers and industry associations to raise prices through reduced supply [22][23] - The US government intervened during this period by implementing policies to stabilize milk prices, including the Agricultural Adjustment Act, which aimed to reduce production and increase prices [24][25][26]

Core Insights - The article discusses the evolution of the United States from a secondary power to a global superpower, emphasizing the lessons learned from historical events such as the World Wars and the Cold War [1] - It highlights the significance of the Second Reform in preparing the U.S. for the challenges posed by World War II and the Cold War [1] Group 1: Historical Context - The U.S. faced severe financial crises between 1930 and 1933, with multiple bank failures leading to economic instability [1] - The competition between the U.S. dollar and the British pound saw the dollar initially rise but ultimately falter due to the Federal Reserve's inexperience [3] - The Great Depression was exacerbated by the collapse of the banking sector, leading to a global economic downturn and a significant drop in import demand [3] Group 2: Current Implications - The U.S. is currently undergoing a Fourth Reform aimed at dismantling the existing global trade system, which could have catastrophic consequences for industrial nations reliant on exports [5] - Lessons from the 1930s indicate that raising tariffs can worsen economic crises, suggesting that lowering tariffs and maintaining market openness is crucial for international competitiveness [6] Group 3: Roosevelt's New Deal - Roosevelt's initial measures included stabilizing agricultural prices and rescuing failing banks, which provided temporary economic stability but did not eliminate the crisis [6][7] - The New Deal introduced comprehensive reforms, including fiscal policies and infrastructure investments, which played a vital role in economic recovery and job creation [7] - Despite initial successes, resistance from vested interests hindered the sustainability of many reforms, leading to renewed economic challenges [7] Group 4: World War II Preparation - The economic situation in the U.S. was dire as World War II loomed, with inadequate military spending and poor preparedness [8] - The outbreak of World War II shifted U.S. fiscal policy towards military expenditure, which not only alleviated the economic crisis but also positioned the U.S. as a key player in the war [10] - The rise of labor unions during this period facilitated increased production for the war effort, showcasing the importance of worker engagement in national initiatives [10]