金十数据6月23日讯，多位知情人士表示，在此次美军针对伊朗核设施的军事行动中，与另外两处核设施不同，伊朗伊 斯法罕核设施并未遭B-2轰炸机投掷大型掩体炸弹。美国米德尔伯里国际研究学院的武器专家兼教授杰弗里·刘易斯仔细 研究了袭击地点的商业卫星图像后表示，该设施的受损似乎仅限于地面建筑。美总统特朗普美东时间21日宣布，美 军"成功打击"伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施。（央视） ·以色列总理称不会陷入消耗战 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/06/23 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - On June 22, the price of NY crude oil futures rose above $78 per barrel, marking an increase of over 6% compared to the closing price on June 20, before retreating to around $75 [1]. - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $80 per barrel, reaching a high of $81.4, with a gain of 5.7%, before dropping below $79 [1]. Strait of Hormuz Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024, accounting for about 20% of global daily oil consumption [1]. - The Iranian parliament has reportedly reached a consensus on the potential closure of the Strait, with the final decision pending from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1]. Impact on Iranian Oil Exports - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran would be unable to export its crude oil, which currently stands at an average production of 3.3 million barrels per day and an export volume of 1.84 million barrels per day as of May [2]. Price Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy Group suggest that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]. Shipping and Military Risks - Although the Strait has not been officially closed, shipping times and costs are expected to rise, prompting close monitoring of Iran's responses [2]. - The U.S. has amassed significant military forces in the Gulf region, and any Iranian actions regarding the Strait could provoke a substantial military response [2].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran poses significant risks to oil supply in the Middle East, with energy infrastructure now clearly becoming a target for attacks [1] Group 1: Conflict Impact on Energy Supply - The report highlights that both Israel and Iran targeted energy infrastructure on the second day of the conflict, raising concerns about the stability of oil supply [1] - Analysts suggest that Israel may consider attacking Iran's Khark Island hub to disrupt crude oil flow, while Iranian proxies might target energy facilities in Iraq [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - The crisis has prompted banks to evaluate various potential outcomes, including the possibility of disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - There is an amplified market concern regarding the risk of the "closure of the Strait of Hormuz," especially if regime change becomes a core objective for Israel [1]