1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices rose significantly due to geopolitical tensions. After the US announced a successful air - strike on three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday, Iran declared retaliation and the Iranian parliament approved the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The uncertainty of Iran's retaliatory actions, scale, and whether the US will deploy ground troops to destroy nuclear projects has increased geopolitical risks. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, global oil inventories were basically flat, and diesel strengthened significantly due to supply disruptions. The oil futures spread continued to strengthen, approaching the 2022 level. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the absolute price of crude oil may soar to three - digit levels [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Price Data - From June 16 - 20, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated, with a value of 71.77 on June 16 and 73.84 on June 20; BRENT prices also fluctuated, from 73.23 on June 16 to 77.01 on June 20, with a change of - 1.84; DUBAI prices were around 70 - 71 dollars per barrel [3]. - SC prices had a change of - 4.30 from June 16 - 20, 2025; OMAN prices increased by 0.68 during the same period [3]. - Domestic gasoline prices increased by 30 to 8060, and the domestic gasoline - BRT spread increased by 142 to 3461 [3]. b. Daily News - An Iranian parliamentary committee member said the Iranian parliament concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Supreme National Security Council [3]. - Russian President Putin agreed with OPEC's view that oil demand will remain high, and Rosneft's head said OPEC + may advance its original production - increase plan by about a year [4]. - Multiple sources said only the ground part of Iran's Isfahan nuclear facility was damaged in the US military operation [4]. - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu "appreciated" the US air - strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, stating Israel won't be involved in a war of attrition and will neither take unnecessary actions nor stop prematurely [4]. c. Regional Fundamentals - In the week of June 13, US crude exports increased by 107.5 barrels per day to 436.1 barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 0.3 barrels to 1343.1 barrels per day [4]. - US commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 11.473 million barrels to 421 million barrels, a 2.65% decline; strategic oil reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 402.3 million barrels, a 0.06% increase [4][5]. - US crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 67.2 barrels per day to 550.4 barrels per day in the week of June 13 [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate rose, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate declined. Both gasoline and diesel production increased, with inventories piling up. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. d. Weekly View - Geopolitical tensions caused a sharp rise in oil prices this week. With the uncertainty of Iran's retaliation and US actions, geopolitical risks soared. Crude oil may face a sharp increase on Monday. Fundamentally, US commercial inventories decreased by over 10 million barrels, and global oil inventories were basically flat. Diesel strengthened due to supply disruptions, and the oil futures spread continued to strengthen. If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, crude oil prices may soar to three - digit levels [5].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - On June 22, the price of NY crude oil futures rose above $78 per barrel, marking an increase of over 6% compared to the closing price on June 20, before retreating to around $75 [1]. - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $80 per barrel, reaching a high of $81.4, with a gain of 5.7%, before dropping below $79 [1]. Strait of Hormuz Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024, accounting for about 20% of global daily oil consumption [1]. - The Iranian parliament has reportedly reached a consensus on the potential closure of the Strait, with the final decision pending from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1]. Impact on Iranian Oil Exports - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran would be unable to export its crude oil, which currently stands at an average production of 3.3 million barrels per day and an export volume of 1.84 million barrels per day as of May [2]. Price Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy Group suggest that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]. Shipping and Military Risks - Although the Strait has not been officially closed, shipping times and costs are expected to rise, prompting close monitoring of Iran's responses [2]. - The U.S. has amassed significant military forces in the Gulf region, and any Iranian actions regarding the Strait could provoke a substantial military response [2].

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran poses significant risks to oil supply in the Middle East, with energy infrastructure now clearly becoming a target for attacks [1] Group 1: Conflict Impact on Energy Supply - The report highlights that both Israel and Iran targeted energy infrastructure on the second day of the conflict, raising concerns about the stability of oil supply [1] - Analysts suggest that Israel may consider attacking Iran's Khark Island hub to disrupt crude oil flow, while Iranian proxies might target energy facilities in Iraq [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Risks - The crisis has prompted banks to evaluate various potential outcomes, including the possibility of disruptions in oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - There is an amplified market concern regarding the risk of the "closure of the Strait of Hormuz," especially if regime change becomes a core objective for Israel [1]