Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]

邓正红软实力表示，伊朗和以色列之间的停火虽然脆弱，但至今仍在维持，地缘性软实力弱化。随着地缘政治担忧的消退，交易员已将注意力重新转向市场 基本面，而基本面继续表明下半年供应充足，供应端硬实力强势。8个欧佩克联盟成员国的增产正在加剧看空基调，石油软实力受压。邓正红理论中"商业模 式三齿轮结构"在此情境下体现为：战略齿轮——欧佩克市场份额争夺；战术齿轮——地缘风险定价模型调整；执行齿轮——实际产量与出口量变化。 【人物简介】邓正红，中国软实力之父，创立邓正红软实力思想和智库，建立软实力理论、软实力宇宙哲学、软实力函数、软实力指数工具、软实力油价分 析模型、商业模式效度齿轮结构和基于价值创新的科学-技术-产业三椎体模型，开创能源软实力、低碳软实力和产业软实力，第一个对软实力系统量化与价 值评价，拥有基于企业、城市、国家之软实力指数与软实力价值评估计算一整套自主知识产权，独家发布企业（世界软实力500强、中国上市公司软实力100 强、央企软实力排名）、城市（中国内地城市和地区软实力排序、中国国家高新区软实力排序）和国家（全球软实力100强）三大软实力排行榜，国家电网 《企业软实力丛书（核心价值、核心模式、核心实力）》 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rapid shift in President Trump's stance from military action against Iran to advocating for a ceasefire is primarily driven by economic factors, particularly the rising energy prices and their impact on inflation and U.S. economic policy [2][4][10]. Energy Prices and Inflation - Following Trump's announcement of military action against Iran, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude reaching over $78 per barrel and Brent crude hitting $81.4 [1]. - The increase in oil prices poses a direct threat to U.S. inflation, as energy expenditures account for approximately 6.2% of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) [5]. - Goldman Sachs estimates that a 10% rise in oil prices could increase the preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, by 0.04 percentage points, while a $10 increase in oil prices could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 0.1 percentage points [5][6]. Political Implications - Rising oil prices could lead to public dissatisfaction with Trump, potentially affecting midterm election outcomes [4][9]. - Trump's call for lower oil prices is seen as an attempt to mitigate inflationary pressures and influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [7][10]. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - Concerns over inflation have prompted Trump to urge the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, as high rates could hinder his economic policies and the proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill" [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve's recent statements indicate that any signs of rising inflation could deter them from lowering rates, complicating Trump's fiscal plans [9][12]. Strategic Economic Planning - Trump's actions to stabilize energy prices and negotiate peace in the Middle East are viewed as necessary steps to create fiscal space for his spending plans, which could add at least $3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade [10][13]. - The anticipated increase in U.S. Treasury supply may lead to rising interest rates, complicating the financing of Trump's proposed fiscal initiatives [12].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. airstrikes on Iran have led to a significant increase in international oil prices, raising concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transport route [1][2]. Oil Price Movement - On June 22, the price of NY crude oil futures rose above $78 per barrel, marking an increase of over 6% compared to the closing price on June 20, before retreating to around $75 [1]. - Brent crude oil futures surpassed $80 per barrel, reaching a high of $81.4, with a gain of 5.7%, before dropping below $79 [1]. Strait of Hormuz Concerns - The Strait of Hormuz is vital for oil transport, with approximately 20 million barrels of oil passing through daily in 2024, accounting for about 20% of global daily oil consumption [1]. - The Iranian parliament has reportedly reached a consensus on the potential closure of the Strait, with the final decision pending from the Supreme National Security Council of Iran [1]. Impact on Iranian Oil Exports - If the Strait of Hormuz is closed, Iran would be unable to export its crude oil, which currently stands at an average production of 3.3 million barrels per day and an export volume of 1.84 million barrels per day as of May [2]. Price Projections - Analysts from Goldman Sachs and Rapidan Energy Group suggest that if the Strait remains closed for an extended period, international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel [2]. Shipping and Military Risks - Although the Strait has not been officially closed, shipping times and costs are expected to rise, prompting close monitoring of Iran's responses [2]. - The U.S. has amassed significant military forces in the Gulf region, and any Iranian actions regarding the Strait could provoke a substantial military response [2].

利空突袭。 今日亚太股市普遍走低。恒生科技指数低开低走，开盘不久后，跌幅扩大至2%，截至发稿跌幅有所收窄。阿里巴巴快速跳水达4.7%。 | 今开 | 5227.54 | | 最高 | 5231.97 | | 成交量 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 5281.34 | | 最低 | 5162.83 | | 成交额 | 290.66亿 | | 振幅 | 1.31% | | 涨跌额 | -54.54 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.03% | | 分时 | 王日 | 日K | 周K | 月K | 薬K | 年K | 更多v | | 5229.87 | | | | | | | -0.97%. | | 5196.85 | | | | | | | -1.60% | | 5163. 09:30 | | | | 12:00/13:00 | | | -2.22% 16:00 | A股指数走弱，创业板指盘中下挫跌逾1.00%，沪指跌0.16%，深成指跌0.48%。机器人、消费电子、医美、白酒等方向跌幅居前，沪深京三市下跌个股近 3600只。 | ...

新永安期货市场快讯 XIN YONGAN Futures Express 2025年5月14日星期三 www.yafco.com.hk 五月假期交易休市时间安排： | 交易所 | 品种 | 5.5 | 5.26 | 交易所 | 品种 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.12 | 5.26 | 5.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 农产品 利率及债券 | 正常 | 休市 | BMD | 所有产品 | 休市 | 正常 | 正常 | 正常 | 休市 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 生猪、活牛 | 正常 | 休市 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 正常 | 于27日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | 指数产品 | 休市 | 正常 | 休市 | 正常 | 正常 | T时段交易 | 正常 | | CME | 外汇 | 正常 | 正常 | HKEX | 金属产品 | 休市 | 正常 | 休市 | 正常 | 正常 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 指数 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent trends in the PTA and short fiber chemical fiber markets, indicating fluctuations in prices and supply dynamics, influenced by crude oil prices and production activities in the industry [1] Group 1: PTA Market Dynamics - On May 12, NY crude oil futures increased by $0.93 to $61.95 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by $1.05 to $64.96 per barrel [1] - PTA futures experienced narrow fluctuations in the morning, with the spot market basis strengthening, leading to some mainstream suppliers making sales [1] - Yisheng Petrochemical raised its PTA price by $28 to $616 per ton [1] Group 2: MEG Market Trends - MEG domestic market showed strong fluctuations, with the external market also trending upwards [1] - A 360,000 tons/year MEG facility in the U.S. has restarted operations after being offline since early March [1] - From May 12 to May 18, the total arrival quantity at Zhangjiagang was approximately 43,000 tons, Taicang 7,000 tons, Ningbo 5,000 tons, and Shanghai 0 tons, with a total planned arrival of about 55,000 tons at major ports [1] Group 3: Short Fiber Market Insights - Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions saw an increase in production and sales, with average sales estimated above 50% [1] - Short fiber futures maintained an upward trend, with factory prices generally increasing by 100 yuan, although downstream transaction volumes decreased compared to the previous day [1] - Mainstream transaction prices for semi-dull 1.4D direct-spun polyester ranged from 6,450 to 6,650 yuan/ton, with variations in different regions [1] Group 4: Polyester Market Activity - The polyester chip market experienced overall weak transaction atmosphere, with mainstream transactions for semi-dull and bright chips around 5,850 to 5,900 yuan [1] - The transaction volume for polyester bottle chips was light, with orders for May to July mostly transacted at 5,900 to 6,100 yuan/ton [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment has been suspended due to a recent decline in international oil prices, providing relief for drivers during the holiday period [1][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced consecutive declines, with New York and Brent crude futures dropping by 1.79% and 1.93% on April 28, and further declines of 3.08% and 2.75% on April 29 [1][3]. - The current average price of crude oil is $64.82 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.65%, not reaching the minimum adjustment threshold [1]. - Factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include the U.S.-initiated tariff war, expectations of reduced oil demand, increasing U.S. oil inventories, and OPEC's proposal to accelerate production increases in June [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have undergone "three increases, four decreases, and one suspension," resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [5]. - On April 17, there was a significant price drop, with 92-octane gasoline decreasing by 0.38 yuan per liter, 95-octane by 0.41 yuan, and 0 diesel by 0.4 yuan [5]. - Current prices in Zhejiang Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.72 yuan for 0 diesel [5].