2025年12月31日国际贵金属价格显著下跌 贵金属市场方面，有报道称芝加哥商品交易所集团在美国时间周三收盘后再次提高包括黄金、白银、铂 金、钯金在内的贵金属期货保证金，这也是芝商所一周内第二次上调保证金。大量投机资金赶在新规生 效前平仓，引发更多投资者获利了结，贵金属市场周三再次出现大幅波动，黄金期货主力合约价格下跌 超1%，白银以及铂金期货主力合约价格下跌幅度接近9.4%，钯金期货下跌超4%。 2025年国际贵金属价格强势上涨 2025年以来，以黄金为代表的贵金属受到资本热捧。在美联储降息、央行购金热潮、ETF持仓增加以及 避险情绪升温的共同作用下，纽约黄金期价累计上涨超过64%，这是自1979年以来的最大年度涨幅。 2025年12月31日美国三大股指集体收跌 当地时间周三，也是美国股市2025年的最后一个交易日，市场交投清淡，部分投资者锁定利润、获利回 吐，令美国三大股指承压下跌。截至收盘，道指下跌0.63%，标普500指数下跌0.74%，纳指下跌 0.76%。 科技股波动加剧 美股2025年大幅震荡收涨 回顾2025年，美国股市在关税政策的不确定性、人工智能行业盈利前景的隐忧以及美联储是否重启降息 周 ...

2 6日国际贵金属价格强势上涨 本周金银价格均累计显著上涨。 当地时间周五，是美国传统节假日后的首个交易日，市场正处于年末与新年交汇的低流动 性环境。受非必需消费品板块以及能源板块下跌的拖累，美国三大股指收盘微跌。其中， 道指下跌0 . 0 4%，标普5 0 0指数下跌0.03%，纳指下跌0.09%。公司方面，芯片制造商英 伟达股价周五收涨超1%，此前有消息称，公司同意以2 0 0亿美元收购人工智能芯片公司 Gr oq。同一天，欧洲多国股市因节假日继续休市。 本周美国三大股指累计上涨超1.2% 本周，受传统节假日影响，美国股市仅有三个完整交易日，最新发布的强劲经济数据稳定 了投资者对于企业盈利前景将持续扩张的信心，市场风险偏好得到提振，利好科技股，也 带 动 三 大 指 数 全 部 累 计 上 涨 。 其 中 ， 道 指 累 计 上 涨 1.20% ， 标 普 5 0 0 指 数 累 计 上 涨 1 . 4 0%，纳指累计上涨1.22%。 2 6日国际油价下跌 本周仍累计上涨 2 6日国际贵金属价格强势上涨 本周金银价格均累计显著上涨 贵金属市场上，市场押注美联储明年将继续实施宽松货币政策，美元指数跌至两个多 ...

*美国第三季度GDP环比年率增长4.3% 美国股市周二收高，标普500指数创下收盘新高。此前公布的美国三季度经济增长数据超预期，推动美 债收益率上行，并提振以科技股为代表的成长板块表现。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数上涨79.73点，涨幅0.16%，报48442.41点；标普500指数上涨31.30点，涨幅 0.46%，报6909.79点；纳斯达克指数上涨133.02点，涨幅0.57%，报23561.84点。标普500成长股指数上 涨0.8%，而价值股指数基本持平。 【热门股表现】 美国三季度GDP超预期提振成长股，标普500指数创收盘新高；白银延续强势并再创新高，现货黄金盘 中亦刷新纪录。 *金银价格同步刷新纪录 *标普500成长股指数上涨0.8% 大型科技股整体走强，英伟达上涨3.01%，为标普500指数提供最大支撑；博通上涨2.30%，亚马逊上涨 1.62%，谷歌A股上涨1.48%，谷歌C股上涨1.40%，苹果上涨0.51%，微软上涨0.40%，Meta上涨0.52%。 特斯拉则小幅下跌0.65%，超威半导体基本持平。 人工智能相关股票延续反弹，扭转了上周因估值偏高及资本开支压力引发的回调。市场人士表示，当 ...

Market Performance - The US stock market closed higher, with the S&P 500 index reaching a new high. The Dow Jones increased by 0.16%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.46%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.57% [1] - Major tech stocks performed well, with Nvidia up 3.01%, Broadcom up 2.30%, Amazon up 1.62%, and Google A shares up 1.48% [1] Commodity Prices - Spot silver continued its strong performance, reaching a new historical high, increasing by 3% to $71.06 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 145% [2] - Spot gold rose by 0.8%, reaching $4478.52 per ounce, hitting a record high during the trading session [3] - International oil prices slightly increased, with New York crude oil futures closing at $58.38 per barrel [4] Regulatory Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Education, and Ministry of Finance in China issued a notice to improve kindergarten fee policies, emphasizing the need for financial transparency and regulation of fees [4] - A new regulation on food safety in live-streaming e-commerce is set to be published, outlining responsibilities for platform operators and marketing personnel [5][6] Corporate News - Sunac China announced that approximately $9.6 billion of its existing offshore debt has been fully released and exempted [6] - Haibo Technology plans to invest 2 billion yuan to build a smart green energy storage factory [6] - Bethel plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [6] - Ningbo Port intends to acquire 100% equity of Zhoushan Port Comprehensive Bonded Zone for 706 million yuan [6]

（来源：中国宁波网） 纽约原油期货走势 布伦特原油期货走势 今年以来到目前为止，国内汽柴油共经历了"七涨十跌六搁浅"，涨跌相抵，以浙江省92号汽油为例，每 升下调了0.55元。算上今晚的下调，今年以来油价调整将变为"七涨十一跌六搁浅"的格局，涨跌相抵， 92号汽油每升下调幅度为六毛钱左右。 龚良奇 摄 上次也就是11月24日24时油价调整，浙江省92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油的下调幅度均为6分钱一升。 而11月10日24时的油价调整，当时浙江省92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油的上调幅度分别为0.1元/升、 0.11元/升和0.11元/升。这意味着，算上今晚的下调，"两连降"期间油价下调的幅度与11月10日一次上调 的幅度相当。 美国推动的俄乌和平谈判一度让市场产生乐观预期，但随着美俄谈判宣告破裂，结果似乎并不令人乐 观。金联创分析认为，乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯能源基础设施，投资者担忧俄能源供应因不可抗力减少； 另外，美国以打击委内瑞拉的毒品走私为名，对委内瑞拉的军事施压和外交施压持续升级，市场担忧可 能会危及委内瑞拉110万桶/日的原油产量。到上周五收盘，国际油价连续三个交易日上涨，使得原先预 期的国内油价下调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil prices are set to decrease in October following a significant drop in international oil prices, marking a shift from previous stability in September [1][4]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - On October 10, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with New York crude futures falling by 5.32% to $58.24 per barrel, the lowest in five months, and Brent crude futures dropping by 4.8% to $62.09 per barrel [1][4]. - Year-to-date, New York crude futures have decreased by 18.8%, while Brent crude futures have fallen by 16.81% [1][4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Oil Prices - The decline in oil prices is attributed to several factors, including threats from the U.S. President to significantly increase tariffs, raising concerns about worsening international trade tensions [4]. - Additionally, OPEC has been increasing supply to the market, altering the supply-demand dynamics [4]. - A significant geopolitical shift in the Middle East, particularly the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas, is expected to reduce geopolitical risk premiums and improve oil supply expectations [4]. Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - Since the last domestic oil price adjustment on August 26, there have been no changes for over a month, with two adjustments being shelved during this period [4]. - Domestic oil prices have experienced "six increases, seven decreases, and six suspensions" this year, resulting in a net effect where the price of 92-octane gasoline in Zhejiang Province has decreased by 0.32 yuan per liter [4].

Core Viewpoint - The international oil prices have significantly decreased, leading to an expected reduction in domestic fuel prices in China, with a notable drop in retail prices anticipated on October 13 [1][3]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - As of October 10, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with New York crude oil futures falling below $60 per barrel, marking a five-month low [3]. - On October 10, New York crude oil futures dropped by 5.32% to close at $58.24 per barrel, while Brent crude futures fell by 4.8% to $62.09 per barrel [3]. - Year-to-date, New York crude oil futures have decreased by 18.8%, and Brent crude futures have fallen by 16.81% [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - According to Zhaochuang Information, as of October 11, the reference crude oil change rate was -1.87%, indicating an expected reduction of 80 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel [3]. - This upcoming price adjustment on October 13 will mark the eighth reduction in domestic fuel retail prices this year, potentially lowering consumer fuel costs further [3]. - The current pricing cycle has seen international crude oil prices primarily trending downward, influencing domestic reference crude oil rates [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the price adjustment for gasoline and diesel is expected to increase by 70 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of 0.06-0.07 yuan per liter [1] - The price adjustment window is set for September 9 at 24:00 [1] - The international oil prices have seen a decline for three consecutive days, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $61.87 per barrel and Brent crude oil at $65.50 per barrel, marking a cumulative drop of 5.67% and 5.26% respectively [3] Group 2 - The average price of WTI crude oil for the current period is projected to be $63.88 per barrel, while Brent crude oil is expected to average $67.71 per barrel [3] - A detailed oil price adjustment calendar for 2025 has been provided, outlining specific dates for price changes throughout the year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - US stocks - Overweight [34] - European stocks - Overweight [35] - Chinese A - shares - Equal - weight [36] - Hong Kong stocks - Underweight [37] - Japanese stocks - Equal - weight [38] - Indian market - Overweight [39] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, different financial markets showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as economic data, central bank policies, and trade relations. Stock markets had varying performances, with some reaching new highs. Bond markets were affected by economic and geopolitical events. The foreign exchange market was driven by interest rate expectations and trade policies. Commodity prices fluctuated due to supply - demand dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The report also provided investment ratings and reasons for different markets and selected funds based on specific criteria [34][56][64] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance Data - **Stock Markets**: In June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index had a monthly increase of 6.27% and a YTD increase of 7.93%, while the European Stoxx 50 index decreased by 1.18% monthly but had an 8.32% YTD increase. The Hang Seng Index rose 3.36% in June and 20.00% YTD [1] - **Bond Markets**: The Bloomberg US Corporate High - Yield Bond Index increased 1.84% monthly and 4.57% YTD, while the Bloomberg European Aggregate Total Return Index decreased 0.09% monthly and had a 0.84% YTD increase [2] - **Commodity Markets**: Gold prices (in dollars per ounce) increased 0.42% monthly and 25.86% YTD, and New York crude oil futures (in dollars per barrel) increased 7.11% monthly but decreased 9.22% YTD [4] - **Foreign Exchange Markets**: The US dollar index decreased 2.47% monthly and 10.70% YTD, while the euro/dollar increased 3.88% monthly and 13.84% YTD [5] 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - **Employment**: In June, the US added 147,000 non - farm jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. However, the growth mainly came from the government sector, and the actual employment pressure remained [9] - **Inflation**: In May, the US CPI increased 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased 2.8% year - on - year. Some categories affected by import tariffs had significant price increases [11] - **Retail Sales**: In May, US retail sales decreased 0.9% month - on - month, mainly due to the decline in automobile and gasoline sales [16] - **Services PMI**: In June, the US ISM Services PMI was 50.8, back in the expansion zone, while the S&P Global Services PMI was 52.9, showing differences between SMEs and large enterprises [18] Chinese Macroeconomy - **Consumption**: In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased 6.4% year - on - year, with significant growth in some categories due to promotional activities and policies [21] - **Real Estate**: In May, housing prices in Chinese cities showed a pattern of month - on - month decline and year - on - year narrowing of the decline [21] - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI decreased 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased 3.3% year - on - year, with different trends in different industries [21][23] - **Imports and Exports**: In May, China's exports increased 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports decreased 3.4% year - on - year, with different performances in trade with different regions [23] - **PMI**: In June, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.7%, indicating continued improvement in the economic climate [23] Central Bank Policies - **Canada**: On June 4, the Bank of Canada kept the key interest rate at 2.75%, waiting for clearer signals on trade conflicts [25] - **Europe**: On June 5, the European Central Bank cut the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, further releasing a loose monetary policy signal [25] - **Japan**: On June 17, the Bank of Japan kept the target interest rate at 0.5% and planned to reduce the scale of Japanese government bond purchases [25] - **US**: On June 18, the Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5%, with more officials cautious about interest rate cuts [27] - **UK**: On June 19, the Bank of England kept the policy rate at 4.25%, with more members worried about economic weakness [27] - **Switzerland**: On June 19, the Swiss National Bank cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0%, dealing with low inflation pressure [27] 3. Market Review and Outlook Stock Markets - **US Stocks**: In June, US stocks generally rose, with the S&P 500 hitting a new high. The reasons for the upgrade to overweight include trade friction mitigation, positive economic data, low inflation, and the irreplaceability of US stocks [34] - **European Stocks**: In June, European stocks were sluggish, but the market expected a trade agreement between the US and Europe. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include government fiscal spending, central bank interest rate cuts, and the attractiveness of European stocks as a diversification alternative [35] - **Chinese A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high in June. The reasons for the upgrade to equal - weight include progress in Sino - US trade negotiations, signs of economic bottoming, low capital costs, and expectations for the Politburo meeting [36] - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index exceeded 24,000 in June, but the Hang Seng Tech Index underperformed. The reasons for the downgrade to underweight include intensified competition in the Internet industry, a slowdown in new consumption, and a shortage of high - quality assets [37] - **Japanese Stocks**: The Nikkei 225 index exceeded 40,000 in June. The reasons for maintaining the equal - weight rating include the stalemate in US - Japan trade negotiations, corporate governance optimization, and Japan's exit from deflation [38] - **Indian Market**: The Indian stock market hit a new high in June. The reasons for maintaining the overweight rating include high - speed economic growth, the potential to benefit from manufacturing transfer, and a reasonable valuation considering growth [39] Bond Markets - **Primary Market**: In June 2025, 89 bonds were issued in the primary market of Chinese overseas bonds, including 46 US dollar bonds and 26 offshore RMB bonds. The issuance scale of US dollar bonds recovered, and the issuance of dim - sum bonds increased [44] - **Secondary Market**: As of June 30, 2025, the Markit iBoxx Chinese US dollar investment - grade bond index rose 0.89%, and the high - yield bond index rose 1.11% [47] Foreign Exchange Market - In June, the US dollar index declined for the sixth consecutive month, and the euro was strong. The RMB rose against the US dollar but had a lower increase compared to other major currencies [61] Commodity Market - Gold prices fluctuated at a high level, with short - term adjustment needs but long - term support. Crude oil prices rose first and then fell, with a significant discount indicating concerns about supply surplus. Iron ore prices dropped due to the weak real estate market and supply - side reform expectations [64] 4. Selected Funds - The report selected funds based on different criteria for different types of funds, including historical performance, expense ratio, and risk. For example, the Taikang Kaitai Hong Kong Dollar Money Fund was selected as a money - market fund, and the Invesco Global High - Grade Corporate Bond Fund USD Acc was selected as an investment - grade bond fund [66]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel is maintaining geopolitical soft power, while traders are refocusing on market fundamentals, which suggest ample supply in the second half of the year [1] - OPEC's eight member countries are increasing production, intensifying a bearish sentiment in the oil market, and putting pressure on oil's soft power [1][2] - The geopolitical soft power's weakening is leading to a significant reduction in the risk premium associated with oil, dropping from $15 per barrel during peak conflict to less than $1 [1] Group 2 - The supply side is implementing a threefold supply strategy, with OPEC's eight core members planning to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, and Saudi Arabia leading the push for a fourth consecutive increase to regain market share [2] - Kazakhstan's production reached 1.86 million barrels per day in June, exceeding its quota by 2%, while Russia is preparing to release 1.5 million barrels per day of previously restricted capacity [2] - OPEC's production increase has raised its global market share from 37% in 2023 to 39%, but the U.S. production remains high at 13.42 million barrels per day, indicating ongoing competition [2] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a divergence between soft and hard power values, with New York crude futures dropping by 11.27% last week, reflecting the dissolution of geopolitical premiums and expectations of oversupply [3] - Investors are shifting their focus from conflict-driven risk-averse trading to fundamental signals such as declining U.S. inventories and seasonal demand recovery [3] - The focus of the market has shifted to OPEC's July 6 production policy meeting and the progress of U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, replacing Middle Eastern tensions as the new triggers for price volatility [3]