野村表示，如果市场"老实"地对"鹰派降息"做出反应，这就是一场流动性的逆转：债券和股票将因获利 回吐而走弱，美元则会走强，美股科技股和成长股面临估值压力。如果市场表现基于"哈塞特交易"，美 债收益率曲线将陡峭化，全球经济复苏预期升温，周期性股票将表现出色，而美元将再度承压。 值得关注的是，市场可能低估了未来财政部、美联储与白宫之间的鸽派协调程度，以及为实现"3-3-3目 标"（3%经济增长、3%短端收益率、10年期国债收益率保持在3%区间）而采取的"跳出常规"的政策工 具。 随着特朗普即将宣布新任美联储主席人选，国家经济委员会主任哈塞特Kevin Hassett成为最有力的候选 人。财政部长贝森特不仅要为特朗普物色合适的美联储掌门人，还需确保新主席能够迅速推动降息，否 则他自己的职位也可能不保。特朗普已明确表示，贝森特的命运与美联储的政策走向紧密相连。 这一人事变动及其背后的政策协调预期，正在重塑市场对2025年货币政策路径的判断。投资者需要重新 评估传统的美联储独立性框架，以及财政与货币政策前所未有的配合可能带来的市场影响。 本周美联储议息会议的市场预期正在形成一套清晰的"剧本"。 周一，根据Academy ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is pricing in a 95% probability of a rate cut in December, diminishing the significance of Fed Chair Powell's hawkish statements as he approaches a "lame duck" status [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Reactions and Predictions - If the market reacts "honestly" to a hawkish rate cut, it could lead to a liquidity reversal, weakening bonds and stocks while strengthening the dollar, putting pressure on tech and growth stocks [2][8] - Conversely, if the market ignores the Fed's hawkish signals, it may be driven by the "Hassett trade," leading to a steepening yield curve and a positive outlook for cyclical stocks, while the dollar may weaken [2][8] Group 2: Policy Coordination and Implications - The market may underestimate the degree of dovish coordination among the Treasury, the Fed, and the White House to achieve the "3-3-3 goal" (3% economic growth, 3% short-term yields, and 10-year Treasury yields in the 3% range) [2][3] - The upcoming appointment of a new Fed Chair, likely Kevin Hassett, is expected to reshape market expectations regarding monetary policy paths through unprecedented coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [3][10] Group 3: Key Figures and Their Roles - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin faces pressure as his fate is closely tied to the Fed's policy direction, with President Trump emphasizing the need for quick action on rate cuts [9][10] - Hassett is seen as a strong candidate for the Fed Chair position, with a commitment to lower rates and a unique ability to translate Trump's economic rhetoric into coherent policy [10][11] Group 4: Potential Risks and Reforms - There are concerns that aggressive rate cuts could lead to a loss of confidence in the Fed's commitment to controlling inflation, potentially resulting in a bond market sell-off [10] - Secretary Mnuchin has called for comprehensive reforms within the Fed, suggesting that future regional Fed presidents should have residency requirements to ensure better representation [11]