Quantitative Models and Construction Quantitative Model Framework: Asset Style Rotation - **Model Name**: Asset Style Rotation Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The model identifies asset styles based on intrinsic attributes tied to industry lifecycle changes, categorizing assets into five style stages: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and bankruptcy value. It aims to determine the dominant market style by comparing asset advantages using a priority sequence of g > ROE > D[5][6][9] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Define five asset style stages based on industry lifecycle changes - **Step 2**: Compare asset advantages using the sequence g > ROE > D, where: - g represents growth rate - ROE represents return on equity - D represents dividend yield - **Step 3**: Evaluate whether assets are "good" and whether they are "expensive" to identify advantageous assets - **Step 4**: Focus on the most advantageous sectors based on the current market environment[5][6][9] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share style rotation since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 27.35%[16] - **Model Testing Results**: - Annualized return since 2009: 27.35% - Historical excess returns in specific years (e.g., 2017: 27%, 2020: 44%, 2024: 52%)[16][19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Factor: Pre-Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Name**: Pre-Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on analyst expectations for high growth sectors, regardless of lifecycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Use analyst forecasts to identify sectors with high expected growth - **Step 2**: Calculate the spread (Δgf) between top-performing and bottom-performing groups to measure growth advantage[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: Δgf continues to expand, indicating strong analyst optimism for high-growth sectors[21][31] - **Factor Testing Results**: Δgf expansion observed, with top-performing sectors showing significant upward adjustments[21][31] Factor: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Name**: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures performance momentum during transition and growth stages[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Calculate the spread (Δg) between top-performing and bottom-performing groups based on actual growth rates - **Step 2**: Evaluate industry momentum and growth differentiation[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: Δg continues to contract, suggesting reduced differentiation in growth performance across sectors[25] - **Factor Testing Results**: Δg contraction observed, with top-performing groups declining and bottom-performing groups improving[25] Factor: ROE (Return on Equity) - **Factor Name**: ROE (Return on Equity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on valuation levels under the PB-ROE framework during mature stages[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Identify high ROE sectors - **Step 2**: Evaluate valuation levels using PB-ROE residuals - **Step 3**: Measure asset advantage differences using ROE spread[27] - **Factor Evaluation**: ROE advantage has bottomed out and started to recover, indicating potential fundamental improvement[27][31] - **Factor Testing Results**: ROE spread shows recovery, with low beta exposure and reduced crowding in top-performing groups[27][30] Factor: Dividend Yield (D) - **Factor Name**: Dividend Yield (D) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on dividend yield and additional characteristics during mature stages[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Identify high dividend yield sectors - **Step 2**: Measure crowding levels and evaluate attractiveness based on yield spreads[31] - **Factor Evaluation**: High dividend yield assets remain crowded, and further overweighting is not recommended[31] - **Factor Testing Results**: Elevated crowding levels observed since mid-2024, with limited attractiveness under current market conditions[31][33] Factor: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Name**: Bankruptcy Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on valuation and restructuring expectations during stagnation and recession stages[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Step 1**: Identify sectors with low PB and small market capitalization - **Step 2**: Evaluate attractiveness based on PB+SIZE scores[49] - **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrated significant excess returns during specific periods (e.g., 2015-2016, 2021-2023)[49] - **Factor Testing Results**: Recent recommendations include sectors such as animal vaccines, fuel gas, and textile products, with positive performance over the past three months[49] --- Backtesting Results for Strategies Pre-Expected Growth Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Culture and entertainment, lithium batteries, PCB, shipbuilding, tungsten[35] - **Performance Metrics**: - Culture and entertainment: +12.80% - Lithium batteries: +49.71% - PCB: +37.74% - Shipbuilding: +7.21% - Tungsten: +52.27%[35] Actual Growth Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Coal chemical, battery services, lithium chemical products, rare earth and magnetic materials, other home appliances[38] - **Performance Metrics**: - Coal chemical: +13.04% - Battery services: +28.25% - Lithium chemical products: +62.42% - Rare earth and magnetic materials: +26.15% - Other home appliances: +53.68%[38] ROE Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Agriculture, liquor, power distribution equipment, non-dairy beverages, network connection and tower setup[40] - **Performance Metrics**: - Agriculture: +4.31% - Liquor: +2.35% - Power distribution equipment: +13.72% - Non-dairy beverages: +4.82% - Network connection and tower setup: +80.30%[40] Quality Dividend Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Glass fiber, boiler equipment, automotive motors and controls, lithium battery equipment, network connection and tower setup[43] - **Performance Metrics**: - Glass fiber: +28.94% - Boiler equipment: +28.42% - Automotive motors and controls: +59.57% - Lithium battery equipment: +68.04% - Network connection and tower setup: +80.30%[43] Value Dividend Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Security, daily chemicals, pet food, service robots, network connection and tower setup[46] - **Performance Metrics**: - Security: +16.06% - Daily chemicals: -0.98% - Pet food: -5.82% - Service robots: +0.01% - Network connection and tower setup: +80.30%[46] Bankruptcy Value Strategy - **Recommended Sectors**: Animal vaccines, fuel gas, textile products, dyeing, building decoration[49] - **Performance Metrics**: - Animal vaccines: +8.59% - Fuel gas: +15.29% - Textile products: +10.19% - Dyeing: +9.37% - Building decoration: +11.57%[49]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - **Model Construction Idea**: The framework identifies the dominant market style by comparing the intrinsic attributes of assets, which are tied to their industry lifecycle stages. It prioritizes assets based on the sequence of growth rate (g) > return on equity (ROE) > dividend yield (D) to determine the most advantageous assets and focuses on the most promising sectors[5][6][9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define five style stages for equity assets: external growth, quality growth, quality dividend, value dividend, and distressed value[5] 2. Compare assets globally to identify advantageous ones based on their intrinsic characteristics[5] 3. Use the priority sequence g > ROE > D to evaluate whether good assets exist and whether they are overvalued[5][6] 4. Focus on sectors with the most advantageous characteristics in the current market[5][6] - **Model Evaluation**: The framework has demonstrated strong explanatory power for A-share market style rotations since 2009, achieving an annualized return of 26.70%[16] 2. Model Name: Asset Comparison Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model categorizes assets into primary and secondary groups. Primary assets include actual growth, expected growth, and profitability assets. Secondary assets are prioritized based on crowding levels and fundamental factors[9] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Classify assets into primary (expected growth, actual growth, profitability) and secondary (quality dividend, value dividend, distressed value) categories[9] 2. Allocate market funds to primary assets when any of them show an advantage; otherwise, shift to secondary assets[9] 3. Rank secondary assets by crowding levels and fundamental factors, with the order: quality dividend > value dividend > distressed value[9] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Quantitative Market Trend Judgment Framework - Annualized return: 26.70% since 2009[16] - Historical performance: Positive excess returns in most years, with limited effectiveness in 2011, 2012, 2014, and 2016[16][19] - Excess returns by year: - 2009: 51% - 2010: 14% - 2013: 36% - 2017: 27% - 2020: 44% - 2022: 62%[19] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Expected Growth (gf) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the expected growth rate based on analysts' forecasts, regardless of the industry lifecycle stage[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Use analysts' forecasted growth rates as the primary input[6] 2. Calculate the spread (Δgf) between top and bottom groups to assess the trend of expected growth[21] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown consistent expansion, with top groups driving the increase, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Factor Name: Actual Growth (g) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focuses on performance momentum (Δg) during transition and growth phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the spread (Δg) between top and bottom groups based on actual growth rates[25] 2. Monitor the trend of Δg to identify growth opportunities in the market[25] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Factor Name: Profitability (ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluates valuation levels using the PB-ROE framework, focusing on mature industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the PB-ROE residuals for each industry[40] 2. Rank industries based on residuals to identify undervalued high-ROE sectors[40] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor's advantage has declined, and its crowding level remains low, suggesting limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Factor Name: Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and ROE to identify high-quality dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and ROE scores for each industry[43] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[43] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns in specific years, such as 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Factor Name: Value Dividend (DP+BP) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines dividend yield (DP) and book-to-price ratio (BP) to identify undervalued dividend-paying industries[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate DP and BP scores for each industry[47] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the top-performing ones[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has demonstrated strong excess returns in years like 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Factor Name: Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identifies industries with low price-to-book ratios (PB) and small market capitalization (SIZE), focusing on stagnation and recession phases[6] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate PB and SIZE scores for each industry[51] 2. Combine the scores to rank industries and select the lowest-scoring ones[51] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor has shown significant excess returns during periods like 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Expected Growth (gf) - Δgf continues to expand, driven by top-tier groups, indicating analysts' optimism about high-growth sectors[21] 2. Actual Growth (g) - Δg shows gradual expansion, with opportunities in sectors maintaining strong momentum despite a slowdown in top-tier growth[25] 3. Profitability (ROE) - ROE advantage continues to decline, with low crowding levels and limited opportunities in the current market[28] 4. Quality Dividend (DP+ROE) - Significant excess returns in 2016, 2017, and 2023[43] 5. Value Dividend (DP+BP) - Strong excess returns in 2009, 2017, and 2021-2023[47] 6. Distressed Value (PB+SIZE) - Significant excess returns during 2015-2016 and 2021-2023[51]