1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the warm sentiment in the commodity market, steel prices once fluctuated higher. However, industrial contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, limiting the upward driving force. In January, steel prices continued to fluctuate at a low level under the game between expectations and reality [4][11][13]. - Steel inventories have started to accumulate, with differences among varieties. Construction steel inventories have increased significantly, mainly due to the increase in supply and the seasonal decline in demand, and the expectation of inventory increase during the holiday is strong. Plate inventories have slightly decreased but are still at the highest level in the same lunar period in recent years, and the de - stocking pressure remains [4][26][27]. - In the off - season, steel mill production has weakened, and steel supply has continued to shrink, with differences among varieties. At the beginning of the new year, the factors suppressing production have subsided, and steel mills have continued the resumption of production. However, due to the limited improvement in profitability, the motivation for a significant increase in production is not strong, and production is expected to stabilize, with steel supply remaining stable [4][47][54]. - Steel demand has weakened, with obvious differences among varieties. Construction steel shows obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remains stable at a high level and shows good resilience. Looking forward, the downstream industries of building materials have not improved, the real - estate fundamentals continue to be sluggish, and infrastructure investment is difficult to increase in the short term due to holiday factors. The relative positive factor is the expectation of policy benefits. At the same time, the manufacturing industry's prosperity has weakened, and external demand is average under the new export policy, so there are concerns about plate demand [4][68][69]. - In conclusion, the contradictions in the off - season steel market are accumulating, which may suppress steel price trends. However, as important meetings approach, domestic policy expectations are increasing, and combined with the upward logic of resource products, the macro - positive expectations support steel prices. The operating logic of the steel market will switch between weak reality and strong expectations, and steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the increase in off - season inventories and changes in the macro - narrative logic [5][13][119]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - January Steel Prices Fluctuated at a Low Level - In January, the steel market entered the traditional off - season. Steel demand weakened seasonally, while supply remained stable. Industrial contradictions accumulated, and steel prices were under pressure. However, since October last year, the prices of related resource products have continued to rise strongly, boosting the sentiment in the commodity market and driving up the low - valued black varieties. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel futures and spot prices continued to fluctuate at a low level, with a relatively small overall fluctuation range [11]. - As of January 30, the futures prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil closed at 3128 yuan/ton and 3288 yuan/ton respectively, up 6 yuan and 18 yuan from the end - of - last - month values. The spot prices of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) and hot - rolled coil (4.75mm) in Shanghai were 3250 yuan/ton and 3270 yuan/ton respectively, down 50 yuan and 0 yuan from the end - of - last - month values [11]. - In January, the relevant price differences in the steel market operation were different from previous years. The basis weakened, the futures price curves of rebar and hot - rolled coil still showed a contango pattern but with a lower premium than in previous years. The strength of varieties changed, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was weak and stable, the difference between hot - rolled and cold - rolled plates continued to shrink, and the north - south spread of building materials showed a downward trend [12]. 3.2 Off - Season Steel Inventories Accumulated as Expected - As of the week of January 30, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 12.7851 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 463,600 tons and an increase of 3.76%. The inventory level was slightly higher than that of the same lunar period last year, with a year - on - year increase of 1.4616 million tons and an increase of 12.91% [20]. - Construction steel inventories continued to accumulate, while plate inventories slightly decreased, but both were higher than those of the same lunar period last year. As of the week of January 30, the inventory of construction steel was 5.6995 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 647,600 tons and an increase of 12.82%. The total plate inventory was 7.0856 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 184,000 tons and a decrease of 2.53% [26]. - In terms of inventory links, both steel social inventory and factory inventory increased. As of the week of January 30, the steel social inventory was 8.9073 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 399,500 tons and an increase of 4.70%. The factory inventory was 3.8778 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 64,100 tons and an increase of 1.68% [27]. - The rebar inventory inflection point has appeared, and the increase is relatively large. As of the week of January 30, the total rebar inventory was 4.7553 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 535,000 tons and an increase of 12.68%. The hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly but was still at a high level in the same period, and the pressure relief was limited [33][40]. 3.3 Steel Supply Remained Stable - The steel supply continued to shrink at the end of the year due to poor profitability of steel mills. In December, the national crude steel output was 68.1774 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.298 million tons and a decrease of 5.57%. At the beginning of the new year, steel mills began to resume production, and the output data of the China Iron and Steel Association rebounded in mid - January [47]. - High - frequency data also showed that steel mills began to resume production, but the overall increase was not large, and the steel supply remained stable, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills were 79.00% and 85.47% respectively, slightly higher than the same period last year [53]. - The profitability of steel mills changed little in the off - season. As of the week of January 30, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 sample steel mills was 39.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% but still at a relatively low level [54]. - In terms of varieties, the production of construction steel mills was active, and the rebar output continued to rise, increasing supply pressure. The production of plate steel mills was stable, and the hot - rolled coil output remained at a high level, with high inventory and large supply pressure [60][63]. 3.4 Steel Demand Showed Seasonal Weakness 3.4.1 High - Frequency Indicators Declined Seasonally - In the off - season, steel demand weakened, and high - frequency indicators declined seasonally, with differences among varieties. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand of the five major steel products was 8.0174 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 392,800 tons. In January, the total steel demand was 34.7449 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3197 million tons and a decrease of 3.66% [68]. - Construction steel demand showed obvious seasonal weakness, while plate demand remained stable at a high level. In January, the cumulative demand for construction steel was 10.9401 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3262 million tons and a decrease of 10.81%. The plate demand was 23.8048 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons [68]. - The rebar demand declined seasonally, and the downstream industries did not improve, so the weak demand pattern would continue. As of the week of January 30, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 176,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 240,400 tons. The hot - rolled coil demand remained stable, but there were concerns about the future due to unresolved downstream contradictions [73][80]. 3.4.2 Steel Exports Changed - In December 2025, China's steel exports reached a new monthly high, with an export volume of 11.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.2% and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. The annual cumulative export volume was 119.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The increase in December was partly due to the "rush - to - export" effect caused by the uncertainty of the new steel export license policy in 2026 [89]. - The performance of major steel export varieties was further differentiated. Plate exports were generally strong, and long - products became the core driving force for export growth in December. The export destinations were also adjusted, with some markets showing growth and some showing decline [90][91]. - With the gradual disappearance of the "rush - to - export" effect at the end of the year, combined with weak external demand and the policy adaptation period of enterprises, it is expected that China's steel exports will face downward pressure in the first two months of 2026 [93]. 3.4.3 The Domestic Economic Growth Target was Achieved - In December, the economic data declined, but the annual economic growth target was achieved as scheduled. The annual GDP growth rate was 5%. In December, industrial performance slightly exceeded expectations, social retail sales remained weak, and fixed - asset investment continued to be weak [100]. - The real - estate market was sluggish. In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area decreased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the real - estate development investment decreased by 17.20% year - on - year. The funds available to real - estate enterprises did not improve, and the decline in funds in place continued to widen [102][104][105]. - Infrastructure investment continued to decline. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of narrow - sense infrastructure (excluding electricity) and broad - sense infrastructure turned negative for the first time. In the future, infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize and recover at a low level [110].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday tendency of slightly weak oscillation, mainly due to the game between expectations and reality [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillatory, with the intraday being slightly weak, presenting a low - level oscillation state. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to continue oscillating [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have stabilized. Rebar production has slightly increased but remains at an annual low, providing support for steel prices, though the sustainability needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is running steadily, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing but still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. Demand will continue to decline seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Currently, the supply and demand of rebar are running steadily, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. Under the game between expectations and reality, rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday tendency of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The rebar market shows low supply, which supports the steel price, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. With relatively favorable factors such as low valuation and policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are "fluctuation", "fluctuation", and "weak fluctuation" respectively, with an overall view of "low - level fluctuation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of anti - involution has fermented, the market sentiment has warmed up, driving the night - session steel futures price to stabilize. The spot price remained stable over the weekend. The supply of rebar has continued to shrink to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. The demand for rebar is weak, high - frequency indicators continue to run at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue the seasonal weakening trend and drag down the steel price. The low - supply pattern supports the steel price, but the demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. The relatively favorable factors are low valuation and policy expectations. The steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the steel price of rebar 2605 will show a weak and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, and the overall view is weak and fluctuating due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. - The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, so the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand is weakly stable and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the demand performance should be focused on [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating, with an overall view of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to fluctuate [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production reduction is uncertain. The demand is weakly stable and at a low level in the same period in recent years, and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. With an upcoming major meeting, market sentiment improved, supporting steel prices. However, the rebar fundamentals were weakly stable under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize under the influence of optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the hot - rolled coil futures price rose, but the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][40]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was in progress. The market sentiment was positive, and previous positive factors remained, supporting the ore price. However, iron ore demand was weakening while supply remained high, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel performance [5][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Heavy - truck market**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6%. From April to November, it achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. The cumulative sales from January to November exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [7]. - **Housing prices**: In November 2025, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand homes was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [8]. - **Anti - dumping**: In November 2025, there were 8 cases of foreign anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products, involving cold - rolled stainless steel, hot - rolled steel plates, stainless - steel welded pipes, H - beams, wire rods, etc. [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,331 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310 yuan, 3,240 yuan, and 3,335 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,990 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,190 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB fines at Shandong ports was 800 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 11.94 yuan, and from Brazil was 25.19 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.91 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,133 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume was 504,172 lots, a decrease of 298,245 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 780,154 lots, a decrease of 102,422 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,325 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 249,589 lots, a decrease of 147,549 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 630,397 lots, a decrease of 74,189 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 800.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume was 143,855 lots, a decrease of 95,376 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 358,611 lots, a decrease of 18,063 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts showed the weekly changes and total inventory (mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [16][17][19] - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts presented the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal changes and inventory changes from 2021 - 2025 [21][22][28] - **Steel mill production**: Charts displayed the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric - furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand weakened. Rebar weekly output decreased by 1.88 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needed to be monitored. Demand also weakened, and it was expected to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 3.00 tons, and the inventory pressure was high. Demand weakened, and the demand resilience was likely to decline. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue fluctuating [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern remained weak. Ore demand continued to decline, while supply remained high. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is dominated by expectations, and steel prices have stabilized during the off - season. For the rebar 2510, in the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it will be oscillating with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although production has declined and demand is weak, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions, the strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and the implementation of policies should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight downward trend. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices stabilize during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and rebar production has declined again, but the decline is limited and the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply pressure relief is limited. The rebar demand is seasonally weakening, with weekly performance decreasing month - on - month and high - frequency transactions also shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still putting pressure on steel prices [3]. - Currently, although the rebar fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2510 is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom due to the game between expectations and reality. In the short - term (within one week), it is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is expected to decline; and on the day, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is decline, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of the game between expectations and reality and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are stable. The weekly output has decreased but remains at a relatively high level this year, with little change on the supply side. The weekly apparent demand has slightly rebounded, while high - frequency transactions remain at a low level. The demand side continues to operate stably but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the expectation of seasonal weakening is likely to ferment, continuing to drag down the rebar fundamentals. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world situation is acceptable. Under the game between expectations and reality, the steel price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].