Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar 2605 will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short, medium, and intraday periods, with an intraday tendency of slightly weak oscillation, mainly due to the game between expectations and reality [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all oscillatory, with the intraday being slightly weak, presenting a low - level oscillation state. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to continue oscillating [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have stabilized. Rebar production has slightly increased but remains at an annual low, providing support for steel prices, though the sustainability needs to be monitored. Meanwhile, rebar demand is running steadily, with high - frequency demand indicators increasing but still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream industries have not improved. Demand will continue to decline seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Currently, the supply and demand of rebar are running steadily, the off - season fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. Under the game between expectations and reality, rebar will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, with an intraday tendency of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. - The rebar market shows low supply, which supports the steel price, but demand is weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. With relatively favorable factors such as low valuation and policy expectations, the steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety Viewpoint Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are "fluctuation", "fluctuation", and "weak fluctuation" respectively, with an overall view of "low - level fluctuation". The core logic is the game between expectations and reality [1]. Market Driving Logic - The expectation of anti - involution has fermented, the market sentiment has warmed up, driving the night - session steel futures price to stabilize. The spot price remained stable over the weekend. The supply of rebar has continued to shrink to a low level, supporting the steel price, but the sustainability of production cuts is questionable. The demand for rebar is weak, high - frequency indicators continue to run at a low level, and the downstream industries have not improved, which is expected to continue the seasonal weakening trend and drag down the steel price. The low - supply pattern supports the steel price, but the demand is also weak, and the fundamentals have no substantial improvement. In the off - season, the steel price is still prone to pressure. The relatively favorable factors are low valuation and policy expectations. The steel price will continue to fluctuate and seek the bottom under the game between expectations and reality, and attention should be paid to the changes in steel mill production [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report believes that the steel price of rebar 2605 will show a weak and fluctuating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, and the overall view is weak and fluctuating due to the game between expectations and reality [2]. - The rebar market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, so the sustainability of production reduction is questionable. The demand is weakly stable and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the demand performance should be focused on [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively fluctuating, fluctuating, and weakly fluctuating, with an overall view of weak fluctuation. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing the steel price to fluctuate [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, but the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production reduction is uncertain. The demand is weakly stable and at a low level in the same period in recent years, and will seasonally decline. The approaching major meeting brings optimistic expectations, but the fundamentals have not improved, so the steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. With an upcoming major meeting, market sentiment improved, supporting steel prices. However, the rebar fundamentals were weakly stable under the situation of weak supply and demand. Steel prices were prone to pressure in the off - season. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize under the influence of optimistic sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5][40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was almost completed. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the hot - rolled coil futures price rose, but the supply pressure remained, demand weakened, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue the fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5][40]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume and open interest contracted, and the roll - over was in progress. The market sentiment was positive, and previous positive factors remained, supporting the ore price. However, iron ore demand was weakening while supply remained high, and the fundamentals did not improve. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend. Attention should be paid to steel performance [5][41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Heavy - truck market**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a year - on - year increase of about 46% and a month - on - month decrease of about 6%. From April to November, it achieved eight consecutive months of growth, with an average growth rate of 42%. The cumulative sales from January to November exceeded 1 million, reaching 1.03 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [7]. - **Housing prices**: In November 2025, the average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities was 17,036 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.37% and a year - on - year increase of 2.68%. The average price of second - hand homes was 13,143 yuan per square meter, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.95% [8]. - **Anti - dumping**: In November 2025, there were 8 cases of foreign anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products, involving cold - rolled stainless steel, hot - rolled steel plates, stainless - steel welded pipes, H - beams, wire rods, etc. [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270 yuan, 3,220 yuan, and 3,331 yuan respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,310 yuan, 3,240 yuan, and 3,335 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,990 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,080 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 40 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,190 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of 61.5% PB fines at Shandong ports was 800 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 807 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 11.94 yuan, and from Brazil was 25.19 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 106.91 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 107.35 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - **Rebar**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,133 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.35%. The trading volume was 504,172 lots, a decrease of 298,245 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 780,154 lots, a decrease of 102,422 lots [14]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,325 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.30%. The trading volume was 249,589 lots, a decrease of 147,549 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 630,397 lots, a decrease of 74,189 lots [14]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the active contract was 800.5 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.50%. The trading volume was 143,855 lots, a decrease of 95,376 lots compared with the previous day. The open interest was 358,611 lots, a decrease of 18,063 lots [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: Charts showed the weekly changes and total inventory (mill + social inventory) of rebar and hot - rolled coils from 2021 - 2025 [16][17][19] - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts presented the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including seasonal changes and inventory changes from 2021 - 2025 [21][22][28] - **Steel mill production**: Charts displayed the blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, and electric - furnace operating rate of steel mills from 2021 - 2025 [31][33][34] 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: Supply and demand weakened. Rebar weekly output decreased by 1.88 tons, but the profit of short - process steel mills improved, and the sustainability of production cuts needed to be monitored. Demand also weakened, and it was expected to decline seasonally, dragging down steel prices. In the short term, steel prices would fluctuate and stabilize [40]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The supply - demand pattern was weak, and inventory reduction was limited. The weekly output increased by 3.00 tons, and the inventory pressure was high. Demand weakened, and the demand resilience was likely to decline. The upward driving force was not strong, and it was expected to continue fluctuating [40]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern remained weak. Ore demand continued to decline, while supply remained high. The upward driving force was questionable, and it was expected to maintain a high - level fluctuating trend [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is dominated by expectations, and steel prices have stabilized during the off - season. For the rebar 2510, in the short - term, it is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend; in the medium - term, it will oscillate; and intraday, it will be oscillating with a slight downward trend. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [2]. - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. Although production has declined and demand is weak, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions, the strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and the implementation of policies should be closely monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2510, the short - term trend is oscillating with a slight upward trend, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday trend is oscillating with a slight downward trend. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that expectations dominate the steel market and steel prices stabilize during the off - season [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, and rebar production has declined again, but the decline is limited and the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply pressure relief is limited. The rebar demand is seasonally weakening, with weekly performance decreasing month - on - month and high - frequency transactions also shrinking, remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the weak demand pattern remains unchanged, still putting pressure on steel prices [3]. - Currently, although the rebar fundamentals are seasonally weak and steel prices are still prone to pressure during the off - season, the low inventory situation limits industrial contradictions. The strong raw materials provide cost support, and the policy利好 expectations are fermenting. Under the game between expectations and reality, steel prices will continue the oscillating and stabilizing trend, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2510 is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom due to the game between expectations and reality. In the short - term (within one week), it is expected to oscillate; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it is expected to decline; and on the day, it is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is decline, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of the game between expectations and reality and the steel price oscillating to find the bottom [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are stable. The weekly output has decreased but remains at a relatively high level this year, with little change on the supply side. The weekly apparent demand has slightly rebounded, while high - frequency transactions remain at a low level. The demand side continues to operate stably but is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the expectation of seasonal weakening is likely to ferment, continuing to drag down the rebar fundamentals. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, and the real - world situation is acceptable. Under the game between expectations and reality, the steel price is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].