证券研究报告 港股通 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 资本开支和分红均加码 资料来源：公司公告、华泰研究预测 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 20 日│中国香港 | 租赁 | 目标价(港币): | 91.00 | | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 陈宇轩* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570524070010 chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com | | 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 3 月 19 日) | 76.70 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 53,231 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 58.42 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 53.20-91.95 | 股价走势图 ( ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中银航空租赁 (2588 HK) 资本开支和分红均加码 | 华泰研究 | | | 年报点评 | 投资评级(维持): | 买入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026 年 | 3 月 | 20 日│中国香港 | 租赁 | 目标价(港币): | 91.00 | | 李健，PhD | 研究员 | | --- | --- | | SAC No. S0570521010001 | lijian@htsc.com | | SFC No. AWF297 | +(852) 3658 6112 | | 陈宇轩* | 研究员 | | SAC No. S0570524070010 chenyuxuan020827@htsc.com | | 基本数据 | 收盘价 (港币 截至 3 月 19 日) | 76.70 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (港币百万) | 53,231 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (港币百万) | 58.42 | | 52 周价格范围 (港币) | 53.20-91.95 | 股价走势图 (20) (2) 17 35 53 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" [1][51] Core Insights - Aircraft manufacturers are slowly recovering their production capacity, but delivery delays persist due to supply chain and labor shortages. Boeing is expected to deliver 600 aircraft in 2025, averaging about 50 per month, while Airbus is projected to deliver 793 aircraft, averaging about 66 per month. The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historically high levels [2][5][7]. - Global civil aviation passenger traffic growth has slowed down, with all regions except Africa experiencing a decrease in year-on-year growth rates compared to October. Africa's airlines saw an increase of 12.6%. Europe accounted for the largest share of international passenger traffic, with a year-on-year growth of 6.8% in November, while Asia's international passenger traffic grew by 9.3% [2][11][15][18]. - Overall, while aircraft manufacturers' production capacity is recovering, it still cannot meet the continuously expanding demand for aircraft. The aircraft leasing market remains strong, benefiting from the tight supply-demand situation. The Asia-Pacific aviation market has significant growth potential, providing broader development space for Chinese aircraft leasing companies, which are currently undervalued compared to global leader AerCap [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Aircraft Supply Continues to be Tight - Boeing's monthly delivery volume has significantly improved compared to last year, while Airbus's delivery volume is slightly better than the same period last year. However, both manufacturers' delivery levels are still far from previous highs [5]. - The backlog of aircraft orders remains at historical highs, with Boeing and Airbus accumulating new orders of 1,175 and 1,000 aircraft respectively in 2025 [7]. 2. Update on Civil Aviation Passenger Demand - In November 2025, global aviation revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.6% in October. The global passenger load factor (PLF) reached 83.7%, the highest for November on record [11][15]. - The international passenger traffic in November showed robust growth, with Asia-Pacific and Europe regions maintaining strong performance, while North America saw a growth of 4.0% [18]. 3. Tracking Aircraft Leasing Companies - As of June 30, 2025, Bohai Leasing has the largest number of owned aircraft (628), while China Aircraft Leasing has the least (151). In terms of aircraft orders, Bohai Leasing also leads with 442 orders [39][44]. - The average remaining lease term for China Aircraft Leasing is relatively long at 7.9 years, ensuring long-term stability for the company's leases [47].