食品饮料行业 2026 年度投资策略 20251230 摘要 食品饮料行业预计在 2026 年迎来筑底回升，白酒价格体系重塑，大众 品进入渠道为王时代，餐饮链条有望在低基数下修复，具备产品创新和 供应链优化能力的企业将实现结构性增长。 白酒板块预计 2026 年二季度达新竞争点，目前处于供需深刻变化期， 价格体系重塑，建议重视底部配置价值。2025 年或进入报表下滑阶段， 加速去库过程。 大众品板块进入渠道为王时代，效率革命明显，商超调改加速，新兴渠 道崛起，成本红利延续，提升盈利能力。传统行业逐步筑底回暖，新兴 行业引领成长。 调味品行业 2026 年寻找阿尔法拐点，部分公司已进入库存去化尾声， 成本继续回落，盈利能力提升。建议关注天禾味业、海天味业及日辰股 份等公司。 乳制品行业预计 2026 年迎来供需拐点，奶价筑底周期延续，深加工打 开。奶价持平或上涨缓解竞争，原奶重回紧平衡，下游价格竞争减弱， 盈利持续改善。关注伊利、蒙牛、新乳业及妙可蓝多等投资机会。 Q&A 2025 年食品饮料行业的整体表现如何？ 2025 年，食品饮料行业整体处于调整筑底阶段。需求端维持相对疲软，供给 端出清仍在进行中，导致整 ...

Group 1: Core Insights - The food and beverage sector, particularly the liquor segment, has been undergoing adjustments since 2021, with the white liquor sector experiencing significant changes since May 2025, leading to a market sentiment shift [5][7][40] - The white liquor industry is expected to continue its adjustment phase into 2026, with a focus on left-side allocation opportunities as the sector's average dividend yield is around 3.5% and the price-to-earnings ratio is below 20 times [5][40] - The beer industry is shifting towards scenario-based expansion, with a focus on non-consumption channels and cross-category growth as the market matures [5][56][74] Group 2: White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector has faced a negative revenue growth rate of 4.9% in Q2 2025, with a further decline of 18.4% in Q3 2025, indicating a significant pressure release in the industry [13][19] - Major brands like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye have reported declining revenues, with Moutai's TTM revenue at 178.6 billion and a growth rate of 8.1%, while Wuliangye's revenue has decreased by 10% from its peak [20][23] - The next high-end liquor brands are also experiencing substantial revenue drops, with brands like Jiu Gui Jiu and She De Jiu Ye seeing declines of 77% and 36% respectively from their peak revenues [27][32] Group 3: Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector, particularly in beer, is witnessing a slowdown in the high-end market, with companies focusing on expanding their distribution channels and product categories to seek growth [5][56] - The condiment market is facing weak demand in the B-end restaurant sector, while the C-end is showing a clear trend towards health and convenience, with companies like Yihai International focusing on high dividend yields and overseas market expansion [5][80][90] - The dairy sector is seeing a gradual improvement in sales, particularly in low-temperature products, with companies like Yili and New Dairy focusing on enhancing their operational performance [92][94]