1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For sugar, the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar continued to weaken overnight. The increasing seasonal supply pressure led to a pessimistic market sentiment and a decline in the market. With the southern sugar mills in the peak crushing period, the seasonal supply of sugar increased, and the supply pressure gradually emerged. In December, sugar imports exceeded market expectations, suppressing the market. On the spot side, prices were weak, and pre - holiday consumption did not improve. It is expected to remain at a low level in the short term [3]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton maintained a weak oscillation within the range overnight. The immediate profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the immediate cash - flow of inland textile enterprises in the downstream industry have been compressed to a relatively low level. However, the inventory pressure of textile enterprises' finished products is relatively limited. The operation rate of inland textile enterprises has decreased steadily, while that of Xinjiang textile enterprises remains strong. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, many textile enterprises locked in the basis and priced. The rigid demand for cotton raw materials from textile enterprises still exists. In the short term, the expectation of production reduction regulation has been reflected in the market. It is expected that after continuous reduction in positions and decline in the market, it will maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term, and opportunities to go long on dips can be considered [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Sugar Futures**: For domestic sugar futures contracts (SR2609, SR2605, SR2603), the previous day's closing prices were 5161, 5144, and 5143 respectively, down 39 from the day before yesterday, with a decline rate of 0.75%. The trading volumes were 25565, 223350, and 37264 respectively, and the open interests were 96753, 461359, and 103143 respectively, with increases of 4559, 22526, and 1653 respectively [1]. - **11 - No. Sugar Futures**: For 11 - no. sugar futures contracts (2603, 2607, 2605), the previous day's closing prices were 14.77, 14.35, and 14.67 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the price of 2603 increased by 0.04 (0.27%), 2607 remained unchanged, and 2605 decreased by 0.01 (- 0.07%). The trading volumes were 46550, 19076, and 8358 respectively, and the open interests were 405922, 153199, and 86790 respectively. The open interests of 2603 decreased by 7982, while those of 2607 and 2605 increased by 1743 and 394 respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Sugar Spot**: The current spot prices of white sugar in Liuzhou and Kunming are 5350 and 5195 respectively. The previous day's prices were 5370 and 5195 respectively. The current basis of Liuzhou and Kunming relative to SR2603 is 207 and 52 respectively, compared with 188 and 13 the day before yesterday [1]. - **Sugar Import Price**: The current quota - within and quota - outside import prices of Brazilian sugar are 3331 and 4239 respectively, and those of Thai sugar are 3847 and 4912 respectively. Compared with the day before yesterday, the prices have decreased. The differences between the futures price and Thai sugar are 1297 (quota - within) and 232 (quota - outside) [1]. Inventory and Position - **Sugar Inventory**: The current number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14421, the effective forecast is 50, and the total of warehouse receipts and forecasts is 14471, slightly lower than the previous day [1]. - **ICE11 - No. Sugar Position**: The current non - commercial long and short positions of ICE11 - no. sugar are 143494 and 309205 respectively, and the long - to - short ratio is 0.46, which is lower than the previous day [1]. Industry Information - **Port Cargo Throughput**: In 2025, the Santos Port in São Paulo state set a record high in cargo throughput at 186.4 million tons, a 3.6% increase from the previous record in 2024. China was the most frequent trading partner, accounting for 29.6% of the total trade flow. The main export products were soybeans (44.9 million tons), sugar (24.1 million tons), corn (15.2 million tons), and pulp (9.8 million tons), and the main import products were fertilizers (8.3 million tons), diesel (2.4 million tons), sulfur (2.04 million tons), and wheat (1.3 million tons) [2]. - **Brazilian Sugarcane Yield**: In December 2025, the average yield per hectare of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 73.4 tons, a 26.6% increase from the same period in 2024. The cumulative yield per hectare from April to December in the 2025/26 crushing season was 74.7 tons, a 4.6% decrease from the same period in the previous crushing season [2]. - **Indian Sugarcane Subsidy**: The Punjab state cabinet in India approved a direct subsidy of 685 rupees per ton (equivalent to 52.38 yuan per ton) for sugarcane farmers in the 2025/26 crushing season this Tuesday. This subsidy will be paid by private sugar mills and directly distributed to farmers' accounts, which is an additional subsidy and does not affect the current guidance price of 4160 rupees per ton (equivalent to 318.07 yuan per ton) in the state, which is still the highest in the country [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report indicates that the raw sugar price has broken through the support level and declined. The trend strength of sugar is -1, suggesting a bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data**: The raw sugar price is 16.91 cents per pound, down 0.34 cents year - on - year. The mainstream spot price is 6120 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan year - on - year. The futures main contract price is 5795 yuan per ton, down 46 yuan year - on - year [1]. - **Spread Data**: The 91 spread is 121 yuan per ton, down 12 yuan year - on - year. The 15 spread is 36 yuan per ton, down 4 yuan year - on - year. The mainstream spot basis is 325 yuan per ton, up 36 yuan year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **High - frequency Information**: Brazil's sugarcane crushing progress is slower than the same period last year. The USDA expects the global sugar production in the 25/26 season to increase by 4.73%. Brazil exported 1.55 million tons of sugar in April, a year - on - year decrease of 18%. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons. China's imports of regular sugar, syrup, and premixed powder from January to April decreased significantly [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - **Production, Consumption, and Import Forecast**: CAOC predicts that China's sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.15 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [2]. - **Production and Sales Data**: As of the end of April, China's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.11 million tons, an increase of 1.15 million tons. Cumulative sugar sales were 7.24 million tons, an increase of 1.5 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 65.2%. China's sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 1.74 million tons, a decrease of 1.38 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - **Supply and Demand**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 season (previously 4.88 million tons) [3]. - **Production Data**: As of May 1, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season decreased by 33 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.58 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons. As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 25.74 million tons, a decrease of 5.8 million tons. As of April 9, Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.05 million tons, an increase of 1.31 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of sugar is -1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of trend intensity being integers from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4].