2025 年 12 月 29 日 白糖：市场氛围偏强 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 白糖基本面数据 | | 价格 | 同比 | | 价差 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原糖价格（美分/磅） | 15.17 | -0.13 | 15 价差（元/吨） | 9 | -86 | | 主流现货价格（元/吨） | 5360 | 10 | 59 价差（元/吨） | -6 | 2 | | 期货主力价格（元/吨） | 5285 | 16 | 主流现货基差（元/吨） | 75 | -6 | 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 高频信息：贵金属等大幅上涨，商品氛围偏强。截至 12 月 15 日，25 /26 榨季印度食糖产量同比增加 28.3%。巴西 11 月出口 330 万吨，同比减少 9 万吨。中国 11 月进口食糖 44 万吨（-9 万吨）。关注中国糖浆 和预拌粉进口政策变化。 期 货 研 究 期货研究 国内市场：CAOC 预计 25/26 榨季国内食糖产量为 1170 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经郑州12月25日电（记者 李文哲）2025年白糖价格整体呈下行趋势，郑糖主连合约更是在12月加速下行，连创年内新低，主要产区现货价格跌幅也 持续扩大。2026年糖价还会继续"降温"吗？ 业内普遍认为，增产利空之下，消费方面缺乏亮点，国内糖市或延续"震荡偏弱、估值下移"的格局，考验成本支撑线。期间气候变化、进口政策等因素也有 可能带来转机。但2026年四季度随着期末结转库存偏紧，糖市有望迎来阶段性反弹。 步入增产周期 糖价持续"降温" 在产量方面，中国糖业协会数据显示，2024/25制糖期，全国共生产食糖1116.2万吨，同比增加12.03%，实现连续3个制糖期恢复性增长，产量创十年新高。 预计2025/26制糖期，全国食糖产量将继续上升至1170万吨左右。 中粮期货研究院分析师周航表示，虽然今年上半年我国南方主产区面临一定的干旱情况，但后期充沛降水使植株高度追平去年，新榨季甘蔗入榨量增加是大 概率事件，供应压力将在开榨后逐步体现。 食糖供应充足，而市场需求却未能跟上节奏。据农业农村部预测，2025/26年度我国食糖消费量能够达到1570万吨，较上一年度仅增加4万吨。叠加进口量增 长，食 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The global sugar market is under pressure due to increased supply and demand concerns, with ICE raw sugar futures hitting a near - five - year low. In the domestic market, the supply of northern beet sugar will gradually increase in the short term, and the import volume of sugar is expected to exceed 500 tons this year, with significant pressure from later imports. Downstream demand is seasonally declining. However, the futures price is supported by cost, and the price is expected to be mainly in a weak oscillation [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the sugar futures main contract is 5483 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan; the main contract position is 400,036 lots, down 1562 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 7695, down 100; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 74,205 lots, up 4811 lots [2]. - The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 586, unchanged; the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4135 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4194 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [2]. - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5241 yuan/ton, down 92 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5319 yuan/ton, down 91 yuan [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5720 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons [2]. - The cumulative national sugar sales volume is 999.98 million tons, up 44.98 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 89.99%, up 1% [2]. - The monthly import volume of sugar is 550,000 tons, down 280,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil is 324.58 million tons, down 49.82 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (within quota) is 1410 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1351 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan [2]. - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current Liuzhou sugar price (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 304 yuan/ton, up 88 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 226 yuan/ton, up 87 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 53.91 million tons, up 8.5 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1591.7 million tons, down 184.1 million tons [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 7.85%, down 1.32%; that of put options is 7.85%, down 1.37% [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.68%, down 0.04%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.1%, down 0.16% [2]. Industry News - China has suspended the import of all syrups and premixes from October 27 due to syrup quality issues announced by the Thai Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives [2]. - ICE raw sugar futures hit a near - five - year low on Monday, with the most actively traded March contract down 0.51 cents or 3.40% to 14.46 cents per pound [2]. Other Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 26 sugar mills in Mongolia and Xinjiang have all started production, with an expected total output of about 1.4 million tons [2]. - In September 2025, China's sugar import volume was 550,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 280,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%; from January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 3.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 270,000 tons or 9.4% [2]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that China's total sugar import volume this year will exceed 5 million tons, and the pressure of later import volume is still significant [2].