饲料成本
Search documents
鸡蛋周报:饲料成本增加,蛋价有所上涨-20260323
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:30
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is affected by factors such as feed cost, supply, and demand. Currently, the egg price has increased, but the market lacks continuous upward momentum. The supply is expected to face pressure in the future, and it is recommended to short the June contract [5][13][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.16 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan/jin from last Friday. The egg price rebounded at the beginning of the week but lacked continuous upward momentum, and most producing areas stopped rising and stabilized near the weekend. The price of old hens rose first and then stabilized, and the market supply and demand were in a stalemate [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - The egg shipping volume in the main producing areas showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week. The total volume fluctuated little. From March 13th, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 12.6 million, an increase of 15% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 505 days, an increase of 3 days from the previous week. In February, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.35 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and 3.4% year - on - year. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises in February was 43.3 million, with little change from the previous month and a 5% year - on - year decrease [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - The feed cost increased this week. As of March 20th, the corn price was around 2454 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 3372 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2729 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 3 yuan/jin for single - jin eggs. The single - jin egg cost increased month - on - month. The average egg price increased this week, so the single - jin egg profit increased. As of March 13th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.31 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous week. On March 6th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 11.18 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.67 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - The price in the main selling areas increased synchronously this week. The egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 6864 tons, an increase of 4.3% from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The production - link inventory decreased month - on - month, and the circulation - link inventory increased month - on - month. The vegetable price index and the pork price rebounded slightly [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - The trading logic is that the overall capacity reduction has slowed down, and it is expected that there will still be supply pressure in the future. It is recommended to short the June contract on rallies. For single - side trading, short the June contract on rallies; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific data analysis content in the given text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data of different contract months (such as January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific analysis is given [24][25][28]
鸡蛋期货周报:供应压力稍缓解,但需求一般-20251124
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 08:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The egg market currently has supply pressure slightly alleviated, but demand is average. The egg price is expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term, with a possible slight rebound in the second half of next week [2]. - In the short term, the egg market still has a situation of oversupply, and the price recovery needs time. It is expected that the short - term price may be in a situation of being difficult to rise or fall, but with the slow recovery of demand, the price may transition from the difficult - to - move stage to a slow increase. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 1 - Period and Spot Price Trend Review - The egg futures 2601 contract fell 1.58% this week, with a trading range of 3100 - 3300 yuan/500KG, a maximum of 3248 yuan/500KG, and a minimum of 3154 yuan/500KG [5]. - The average weekly price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.88 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 3.36%; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.34 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [3][5]. 2 - Relationship between Feed Cost and Egg Price - When the feed price shows a downward trend, the egg price also shows an obvious decline. When the cost is relatively stable, the egg price is also relatively stable. The price fluctuation of eggs is more obvious than that of feed. Currently, the prices of corn and soybean meal are in low - level shocks, and the support for egg prices is limited [14]. 3 - Slight Increase in Feed Cost - This week, the average feed cost per jin of eggs was 2.95 yuan, an increase of 0.02 yuan from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. The slight increase in feed cost increased the expenditure of laying - hen farming [3][15]. 4 - Decrease in the Slaughter Volume of Culled Hens (In fact, there is an increase in the text) - This week, the national slaughter volume of culled hens was 20.21 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.80% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.46%. The average weekly price of culled hens in the main producing areas was 3.91 yuan/jin, a month - on - month decrease of 2.49% [22]. 5 - Chicken Chick Price Remains Stable - This week, the price of commercial - generation chicken chicks remained stable, with an average weekly price of 2.73 yuan per chick. The current demand for chicken chicks is average, and the price is weakly stable [23]. 6 - Decrease in the Inventory of Laying Hens - In October, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.359 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.59% [3][26]. 7 - Slight Decrease in the Main Laying - Hen Population - Not elaborated further in the text, only data charts are provided 8 - Strengthening of Vegetable and Pig Prices - On November 21, 2025, the 200 - index of the wholesale price of basket products was 127.46, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.02. The average price of live pigs (variety: foreign ternary) was 11.70 yuan/kg (5.85 yuan/jin), with a price increase of 0.01 yuan/kg (0.005 yuan/jin) compared with yesterday, a month - on - month increase of 3.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.78% [37]. 9 - The Spread between Futures and Spot Prices Keeps a Fluctuating Trend - The egg basis has certain rules. As of November 21, the egg basis was around - 336 yuan/500KG [42].