【豆一】 国产大豆盘面震荡偏强。今日竞价采购专场全部流拍。本周黑龙江储备大豆举行竞价销售，关注实际成交情 况。国内短期东北产区天气总体对作物有利。美国EPA生物柴油政策利多，容易使得美国大豆原料更多用于国内 压榨,部分对冲出口减量的风险,也容易给CBOT大豆托底,价格坑跌。中期海外大豆方面会受天气驱动,天气 会成为影响价格的主要因素。国产大豆中期也逐步进入生长期，预计天气是驱动价格波动的主要因素。 【大豆&豆粕】 伊以战争继续，受原油以及美国生物柴油政策影响,美豆持续上涨。受此影响,大连豆粕延续强势。截至6月15 日当周,美国大豆优良率为66%,低于市场预期的68%,前一周为68%,大豆种植率为93%,大豆出苗率为84%，优 良率咯低。未来两周的美国天气,大部分美大豆产区降雨高于同期平均值,温度也高于同期平均值,持续有利 于大豆的种植生长。国内现货价格普涨，预计本周压榨开工率继续提升,豆粕库存继续增加。后续中美贸易上 的不确定性因素依旧较多,关注油脂端异动,6-8月关注未来天气变化所带来的上涨驱动。 【豆油&棕榈油】 国内油粕比冲高回落,油脂快速冲高之后接近阶段性高点,盘面在进行调整。美国EPA生物柴油政策利 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the importance of sorghum and barley as energy grain feed components, highlighting their protein content comparable to corn and their role as substitutes due to lower prices and significant import volumes [1][3]. - Global sorghum production is approximately 60 million tons, with the United States being the largest producer at 8.73 million tons, followed by Nigeria and Brazil [3][4]. - Global barley production is around 142.5 million tons, with the European Union as the leading producer, contributing 50.4 million tons [4]. Group 2 - China has a high demand for feed, leading to significant imports of sorghum and barley, with projected imports of 7 million tons of sorghum and 9 million tons of barley for the 2024/25 period [5]. - The main sources of sorghum imports for China include the United States (66%), Australia (22%), and Argentina (12%) [5]. - For barley, the primary import sources are Australia (37%), France (15%), and Canada (13%) [5]. Group 3 - The pricing of international sorghum and barley is closely aligned with corn prices, with imports remaining profitable due to lower international corn prices compared to domestic prices [6][7]. - The import volumes of sorghum and barley are influenced by domestic policies, with 2024 expected to see record high imports since 2020 [7]. - The uncertainty in China-US relations may impact sorghum imports, particularly if tariffs are imposed on US goods, while tensions with Australia could lead to anti-dumping investigations on Australian barley [7].