处暑节气临近，河北承德丰宁满族自治县的燕麦种植基地里，燕麦旺盛生长，倒垂着的燕麦麦穗，在微 风吹拂下发出沙沙声。 距离燕麦收获还有二十多天，中国农业科学院作物科学研究所与丰宁县在当地共同举办"2025年丰宁优 质燕麦产业发展交流会"，与会业内人士共话燕麦产业提质升级之策。 燕麦片、燕麦饼干、燕麦米……与会专家指出，作为全营养谷物，燕麦富含多种人体所必需的养分，对 人体健康有众多益处。目前，国内燕麦市场供不应求，产能缺口大，需要进口填补。 推动燕麦产能升级，需要科技助力。 近年来，中国农科院作科所与丰宁县在燕麦良种鉴定筛选、配套栽培技术集成、产业化开发等方面开展 合作。作科所所长周文彬表示，作科所与丰宁县于2020年开展燕麦产业合作，将丰宁县作为核心品 种"中燕一号"的种植与繁种基地。这一品种是作科所从国家作物种质库的1492份燕麦种质资源中，定向 选育出的突破性燕麦品种，产量高、耐旱，对健康有益的β-葡聚糖含量超过5%。 丰宁县元始种植有限责任公司是一家从事燕麦种植、加工、销售的龙头企业，公司采取"公司+农户"模 式带动农户种植燕麦。 "龙头企业应找到产业链中自身最有优势的环节，做好做强，更好发挥产业带动作用 ...

乌克兰农业部长：乌克兰2025年春季播种的谷物已完成97%，面积达550万公顷。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the overall impact of the end of the Russia-Ukraine war on the global economy is expected to be minimal due to the low GDP and export shares of both countries [2]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that the Russia-Ukraine conflict will likely conclude this year, leading to increased focus on post-war reconstruction and its implications for global commodity and financial markets [1]. - It highlights that Russia's economy has become increasingly reliant on energy exports due to the war, with significant changes in export structures and market dynamics [5][9]. - The report suggests that while short-term energy prices have not yet reflected recent developments, mid-term prices may face downward pressure as Russia resumes pre-conflict export levels [19][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Impact on Global Economy - Russia's GDP in 2023 is projected at $6.45 trillion, accounting for 3.51% of global GDP, while Ukraine's GDP is only $622 million, representing 0.34% [2]. - The export totals for Russia and Ukraine are $424.22 billion (1.78% of global exports) and $36.04 billion (0.15% of global exports) respectively, indicating limited global economic influence [2]. 2. Impact on Global Energy Prices - In 2022, Russia's mineral fuels and oils exports totaled $358.02 billion, making up 61% of its total exports, a significant increase from 2021 [5]. - Russia's share of global oil exports in 2023 is 10.5%, ranking second globally, while its natural gas exports accounted for 2.16% in 2021, ranking tenth [9][13]. - The report notes a substantial decrease in the EU's dependency on Russian oil and gas, with Russian oil imports dropping from 25.7% in 2020 to 3.37% in 2023 [15]. 3. Impact on Global Grain and Oilseed Prices - Ukraine's grain exports in 2023 are estimated at $8.306 billion, down 30% from 2021, while oilseed exports are at $5.648 billion, down 18% [23]. - The report indicates that Ukraine's share of global grain exports was 8.53% before the conflict, ranking second globally, but is expected to face challenges in recovery post-war [24]. - It predicts that as Ukraine gradually restores agricultural production, there will be significant potential for increased exports of grains and oilseeds in the mid-term [25]. 4. Impact on Global Financial Markets - The report notes a strong performance in European and Russian financial markets following the expectation of conflict resolution, with the Russian RTS index rising over 16% [35]. - It anticipates further appreciation of the ruble and euro, while the US dollar index may face downward pressure, potentially dropping to 105 [40].

01 摘要 高粱和大麦作为能量谷物饲料重要组成部分，其蛋白含量与玉米接近，但由于价格低于玉 米，且进口数量较多，在饲料中常作为玉米替代进行掺杂和使用。本文对国际高粱和大麦 产量进行梳理，对高粱和大麦主要进口国政策方面进行分析。 0 2 大麦和高粱产量及进口 一、 全球高粱及大麦产量 高粱蛋白含量在8%-11%左右，普通高粱蛋白含量为8-9%，和玉米蛋白8%接近，主要用 于饲料，部分品种比较高的高粱用于酿酒。 根据USDA最新2月数据显示，全球高粱产量约6000万吨（USDA2月数据为61.06百万 吨）。其中美国为最大高粱主产国，产量为873万吨，其次为尼日利亚的690万吨，巴西产 量500万吨，中国高粱产量约为314万吨，澳大利亚产量210万吨，整个欧洲和俄罗斯产量 100万吨左右（欧洲和俄罗斯产量很低）。 欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 刘大勇 来源 | 银河农产品及衍生品 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 2024年中国大麦进口总量1423万吨，其中进口澳大利亚525万吨（占比37%），进口法国 213万吨（占比15%），进口加拿大191万吨（占比13%），进口阿根廷167万吨（占比 12%） ...