Company Overview - Ying Tong Holdings is a leading high-end perfume brand management company in China, providing distribution and market deployment services for 73 external brands as of FY25 [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of high-end consumption and the increasing penetration rate of perfumes and fragrances [1][2] - Ying Tong's brand matrix is continuously expanding, with plans to enhance self-operated retail stores and proprietary brands, which are anticipated to create new revenue and profit growth points [1][3] Industry Insights - The Chinese perfume market is projected to reach 26.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 15.1% from 2019 to 2024, significantly higher than the global expected growth rate of 3.5% during the same period [2] - Currently, over 50% of the domestic perfume market is dominated by overseas luxury brands, indicating a substantial opportunity for domestic brands to increase their market share [2] - The demand for perfumes in China has considerable room for growth compared to Europe and the United States, particularly in the extension from perfumes to fragrances, which could enhance market education and expand the "olfactory economy" [2] Competitive Advantages - Ying Tong has established a rich brand matrix ranging from affordable to luxury, covering various categories including skincare, home fragrances, and personal care [2] - The company maintains stable long-term relationships with its top two suppliers, EuroItalia and Yite, which accounted for 59.4% of total procurement in FY25 [2] - Ying Tong has a comprehensive channel layout with 8,302 offline sales points in China as of FY25, alongside steady growth in online channels [2] Growth Opportunities - The company is launching self-operated retail stores, such as the multi-brand perfume and fragrance collection store "Shi Fen Qi He," to enhance customer experience and increase sales [3] - Ying Tong is actively developing its proprietary brand, Santa Monica, which is expanding into eyewear, perfumes, and fragrances, with a projected CAGR of 41% for brand revenue from FY24 to FY25 [3] - The company is also exploring external acquisitions to diversify its brand matrix and deepen its channel layout [3] Market Positioning - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of the brand management model; however, historical analysis of leading overseas perfume management companies suggests that local distributors are essential for rapid market coverage and scale operations [3] - Ying Tong's operational experience and channel resources provide a unique advantage for sustainable development in the domestic market [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 261 million yuan, 327 million yuan, and 412 million yuan for FY26E, FY27E, and FY28E, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.19 yuan, 0.24 yuan, and 0.30 yuan [4] - A target price of 2.86 HKD is set, corresponding to a 14X FY26E PE, reflecting the company's growth potential and market positioning [4]