Core Insights - The Hong Kong office market is showing signs of recovery, with Central Grade A office rents increasing by 0.1% month-on-month in November, marking the first month-on-month growth since May 2022 [1] - UBS reports that the supply of office space in Central is expected to decline between 2026 and 2027, indicating that the Grade A office market in Central is nearing a bottom, which will benefit companies with Grade A office operations in Hong Kong [1] - The recent report from Savills indicates a significant recovery signal in the Hong Kong office market, driven by a booming IPO market and expanding demand from the financial sector, suggesting that rents for quality office spaces in Central may rebound sooner than expected [1] Vacancy Rates and Market Dynamics - As of the end of September, the overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices in Hong Kong was 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, representing the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [2] - The active performance of the Hong Kong stock market has bolstered confidence in its status as an international financial center, prompting financial institutions to accelerate their real estate plans [2] - The office market is expected to exhibit a differentiated pattern, with core areas stabilizing while non-core areas face pressure, indicating that the long-term recovery of the Hong Kong office market relies on improvements in the global economic environment and the pace of new supply absorption [2] Developer Strategies - Local developers have begun to adopt new strategies targeting companies planning to list or expand operations in Hong Kong [2] - Despite the ongoing demand for quality office spaces driven by the finance, wealth management, and professional services sectors, the share of technology companies in the market is significantly increasing [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports indicate that there are more clear signals suggesting a recovery in the Hong Kong office market, particularly in the Central district, with a projected decline in supply from 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - The Grade A office market in Central Hong Kong is nearing a bottom, according to UBS [1] - The recovery in the office market is expected to benefit stocks with Grade A office business in Hong Kong, including Swire Properties, Swire Pacific, Land Lease, Hysan Development, and Henderson Land [1]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are opting to sell their properties [1][11]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 saw the highest net absorption of Grade A office space in Hong Kong since 2018, reaching 691,800 square feet, with all major commercial districts reporting positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015 [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved for two consecutive quarters, dropping to 17.1% by the end of September, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - New leasing activity from January to Q3 2025 reached 3.3 million square feet, aligning with 2019 levels, as companies take advantage of a 43% drop in rental prices compared to early 2019 [5]. - The demand for premium office spaces in core areas remains resilient, with Central reporting a net absorption of 138,000 square feet, the highest in a decade, and only a slight rental decline of 0.3% [8][9]. Emerging Demand - The resurgence in the office market is driven by the booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, indicating a robust capital market that boosts confidence in the real estate sector [6]. New Players and Market Dynamics - Mainland companies are becoming a significant force in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a prime property in Causeway Bay exemplifying this trend [11]. - Despite new entrants, the overall market recovery is expected to take time, with a projected increase in office rental rates anticipated between 2027 and 2028 due to a significant reduction in new supply [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Currently, investors account for only 20% of office buyers, a significant drop from the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank lending and unattractive rental yields compared to other investment options [12][13]. - The overall office market faces challenges from oversupply, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a substantial new supply of 3.3 million square feet expected to take two to three years to absorb [13].

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are selling off assets, reflecting contrasting market sentiments [2][9]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 marked the strongest performance for Hong Kong's office market in seven years, with a net absorption of 691,800 square feet, the highest since Q3 2018 [3]. - All major commercial districts recorded positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015, indicating a robust recovery [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A office spaces improved to 17.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - Despite high vacancy rates, rental prices have dropped significantly, with current office rents down 43% compared to Q1 and Q2 2019, prompting companies to consider expansion or relocation [3]. - In Central, the net absorption reached 138,000 square feet, the highest quarterly figure in a decade, with a slight rental decline of 0.3%, outperforming the overall market [6][7]. Demand Drivers - The resurgence in the office market is driven by a booming IPO market and the growth of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies leading the demand for office space [4][5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, which has bolstered confidence in the market [5]. Emerging Trends - New players, particularly mainland Chinese companies, are becoming significant contributors to the Hong Kong office market, as evidenced by Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a major property for HKD 7.2 billion [9][10]. - The demand for Grade A office spaces from mainland enterprises is notably strong, especially in core areas like Central [10]. Market Challenges - Despite the positive trends, the overall market recovery is still uncertain, with a projected decrease in new office supply in 2026, which may lead to a gradual increase in occupancy rates by 2027-2028 [10][11]. - The current rental yield for Hong Kong offices is around 4%, which is less attractive compared to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield of approximately 4.08%, making it less appealing for risk-averse investors [11]. Conclusion - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is navigating a complex landscape of recovery, characterized by a dichotomy between new economic players and traditional investors, each making strategic decisions based on their unique perspectives [12].