高盛发布研报称，将今年楼价升幅预测由5%提高至12%，料政府推出的签证及移民政策将带动需求。 另外，租金强劲增长（2023至25年间累升约两成），加上按揭利率下降，或令更多人"转租为买"。自 2024财年初撤辣后，交易成本大为降低，亦可能刺激投资需求。该行料未来政府政策将继续支持人口、 收入增长及住屋可负担能力。 股份方面，该行将恒基地产（00012）及信和置业（00083）评级由"沽售"一举升至"买入"，认为两者更 能受惠于香港住宅市场的上升周期，目标价分别大升至39港元及14.6港元，同时重申对新鸿基地产 （00016）的"买入"评级，目标价大升至159港元；3间公司的单位库存占市场整体约36%，并有不同新 项目正在推进。另外，该行将长实集团（01113）评级由"买入"降至"中性"，因其对香港物业市场的敞 口较小，目标价升至53港元。 受惠于资本市场活跃，该行预期今年核心中环区写字楼租金将同比升3%，其他地区则大致持平。不 过，该行对零售市场前景较为审慎，料租金仅温和增长2%，因来自港人外游及网购的竞争持续。 股份方面，该行将恒基地产（00012）及信和置业（00083）评级由"沽售"一举升至"买入"，认 ...

高盛调高恒基地产(00012)及信和置业(00083)评级至"买入"，该行认为两公司更能受惠香港住宅市场的 上升周期，目标价分别调高至39港元及14.6港元。该行维持新鸿基地产(00016)"买入"评级，目标价升至 159港元。高盛指，3间公司的单位库存占市场整体约36%，并有新项目推进，最能受惠于香港楼价复 苏。 高盛表示，长实集团(01113)本地物业项目有限，英国酒吧业务面对成本压力及消费者习惯转变，将长 实评级由"买入"降至"中性"，但上调目标价至53港元。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研究报告称，港府推出的签证及移民政策将带动楼市需求，同时受到租金 强劲增长，以及按揭利率下降，或令更多人"转租为买"，将今年香港楼价升幅预测由5%调高至12%。 受惠资本市场活跃，高盛预期今年核心中环区写字楼租金升3%，其他地区则大致持平。该行对零售市 场前景较审慎，预计租金温和增长2%，因来自港人外游及网购的竞争持续。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong residential market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with new home sales volume approaching the peak levels of 2019, and second-hand home transactions reaching a new high since 2022. The inventory de-stocking cycle has significantly reduced from 125 months to 61 months [1][8]. - The retail property market is still under pressure, but rental declines are narrowing, and vacancy rates in core areas are decreasing. Office rents and occupancy rates are under pressure, with significant regional market differentiation [1][19][25]. - The residential market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates and an increase in rental yields. Over 80% of residential properties are projected to achieve a balance between supply and rental demand [1][34][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Review - Residential transaction volumes are increasing, with new home sales reaching 21,000 units in 2025, a 99.1% increase from the cycle's bottom [8][12]. - The inventory pressure has eased, with the de-stocking cycle for new homes dropping significantly [16]. - Retail property rents are still adjusting, but the rate of decline is slowing, and some core areas are showing signs of recovery [19][21]. - Office rents have decreased by 21.1% since their peak in June 2019, with rising vacancy rates [25][26]. 2. Outlook for the Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The residential market is expected to continue its recovery, with structural differentiation being a key feature [34]. - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to support the Hong Kong real estate market's recovery [34][37]. - The proportion of properties achieving a balance between supply and rental demand is expected to increase, enhancing home buying demand [39][40]. - Talent attraction policies are anticipated to boost potential home buying demand as more skilled individuals move to Hong Kong [44][50]. 3. Valuation Elasticity of Hong Kong Property Companies - Current valuations of major Hong Kong property companies are at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [1][3]. - Companies with a higher proportion of development business and land reserves are expected to exhibit greater valuation elasticity [1][3]. - The top three property companies in terms of sales in 2025 are Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, with significant year-on-year sales growth for Henderson and Sino [1][3].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong real estate market experienced a significant turnaround in 2025, with a record high of HKD 138 billion in residential purchases by mainland buyers, contributing to a 14.1% year-on-year increase in transaction volume to 13,900 units [1] - Mainland buyers showed a strong preference for new properties, with nearly 60% of their investments directed towards first-hand properties, driven by Hong Kong's status as a hub for asset allocation and educational resources [1] - The demand for high-end properties, particularly those priced above HKD 50 million, is notably high among mainland clients, who accounted for nearly 70% of such purchases, indicating a trend where higher-priced properties attract a larger proportion of mainland buyers [2] Group 2 - The luxury property market in Hong Kong is expected to see a significant increase in transaction volumes, with first-hand luxury sales projected to rise by 50% and second-hand luxury sales by 60% in 2026, supported by factors such as the scarcity and high value retention of luxury properties [2] - The residential price index in Hong Kong has rebounded over 4% since March 2025, with an expected further increase of about 5% by the end of 2026, driven by multiple factors including wealth effects from stock market performance and sustained interest from mainland buyers [3] - The influx of mainland technology companies investing over HKD 10 billion in core office spaces in Hong Kong reflects the growing business opportunities and the impact of favorable talent recruitment policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market experienced a significant turnaround in 2025, with a notable increase in both transaction volume and prices, largely driven by mainland Chinese buyers [1] Group 1: Mainland Buyers' Impact - In 2025, mainland buyers purchased residential properties in Hong Kong totaling HKD 138 billion, setting a new historical record [1] - The easing of property restrictions and talent introduction plans have stimulated demand, leading to a year-on-year increase in transaction volume by 14.1% to 13,900 transactions [1] - Nearly 60% of the funds from mainland buyers are directed towards new properties, indicating a strong preference for first-hand real estate [1] Group 2: Luxury Property Trends - High-value properties, particularly those priced above HKD 50 million, are increasingly favored by mainland clients, who accounted for nearly 70% of such purchases [4] - The luxury market is expected to thrive in 2026, with a projected 50% increase in first-hand luxury property transactions and a 60% rise in second-hand luxury transactions [4] - Factors supporting this demand include the scarcity and high value retention of luxury properties, as well as the influx of skilled professionals and families relocating to Hong Kong [4] Group 3: Broader Market Dynamics - Major mainland tech companies, such as Alibaba and JD.com, have invested over HKD 10 billion in acquiring office spaces in core areas of Hong Kong [5] - A report from Morgan Stanley indicates that since March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded by over 4%, with an expected further increase of about 5% by the end of 2026 [5] - Multiple factors, including a resilient stock market, pent-up demand, anticipated interest rate declines, rising rents, and sustained interest from mainland buyers, are supporting the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong residential market [5]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market experienced a significant turnaround in 2025, with both transaction volume and prices rising, largely driven by mainland Chinese buyers [1] - Mainland buyers purchased residential properties in Hong Kong totaling HKD 138 billion, a record high, with transaction volume increasing by 14.1% year-on-year to 13,900 units [1] - The demand for high-end properties is expected to continue, with predictions of a 50% increase in new luxury property transactions and a 60% increase in second-hand luxury transactions in 2026 [2] Group 1 - The influx of mainland buyers is attributed to Hong Kong's status as a center for asset allocation and educational resources, attracting high-net-worth individuals and professionals [1][3] - Nearly 60% of the funds from mainland buyers are directed towards new properties, indicating a strong preference for first-hand real estate [1] - High-value properties, particularly those priced over HKD 50 million, are increasingly favored by mainland clients, who account for nearly 70% of purchases in this segment [2] Group 2 - The demand for high-end residential properties is further supported by talent attraction programs, which bring skilled professionals and families to Hong Kong, thereby increasing the demand for premium housing [3] - The Hong Kong IPO market remains active, with significant fundraising, making luxury properties attractive as status symbols for newly listed companies and high-net-worth individuals [3] - Multiple factors, including a rebound in residential prices by over 4% since March 2025 and an expected further increase of about 5% by the end of 2026, are supporting the ongoing recovery of the Hong Kong residential market [3]

Group 1: Residential Market - Hong Kong residential property prices increased by approximately 1.8% as of October last year, with an expected transaction volume of around 62,000 units for the entire year of 2025 [1] - The residential price increase for 2026 is anticipated to be within 5% [1] - The positive market sentiment in 2025 was driven by a sustained low-interest environment and a wealth effect from a strong stock market, leading to a recovery in property prices [1] Group 2: Office Market - The office market showed significant recovery by the end of last year, with a net absorption of approximately 984,000 square feet in the fourth quarter, leading to an expected total absorption of about 1.6 million square feet for 2025, the highest in seven years [1] - The banking and financial sectors continued to be the main drivers of new leasing demand, with Central district rents increasing by approximately 1.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Overall office rents are projected to fluctuate between a decrease of about 1% and an increase of about 1% in 2026 [1] Group 3: Retail Market - The retail market improved in the fourth quarter of last year due to a rebound in visitor numbers, with a decrease in overall retail property vacancy rates to approximately 5.9% [2] - New leasing transactions in Central were primarily driven by banks, financial institutions, and high-end skincare brands [2] - Retail rents are expected to rise by about 2% to 3% in the first half of 2026 [2] Group 4: Logistics Market - The logistics property market remains under pressure, with a rise in the vacancy rate of premium warehouses to approximately 11.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, a new high since the pandemic [2] - Despite an overall increase in trade performance, leasing demand in the logistics sector remains weak, with rents declining by approximately 3.4% quarter-on-quarter [2] - Overall logistics property rents are expected to decrease by about 7% in 2026 [2] Group 5: Capital Markets - The investment atmosphere improved significantly in the fourth quarter due to falling interest rates and attractive asset prices, with total transaction value for properties over HKD 100 million rising to approximately HKD 19.1 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of about 115% [2] - Office properties accounted for about 87% of the total transaction volume for the quarter [2] - The total property investment transaction value for 2026 is expected to be around HKD 40 billion [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's residential transaction volume and prices are expected to rebound significantly starting from March 2025, with total transactions projected to exceed 60,000 for the year, marking the second highest level in nearly 13 years, following 2021 [1][2][7] Residential Market - In the first 11 months of 2025, Hong Kong's total transactions for new and second-hand private residential properties reached 54,669, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.0% [2] - The second-hand residential prices confirmed a bottoming out from March to May 2025, with prices rising by 6.2% since the low point in late May, and an expected annual growth of 4.5% for 2025 [2][7] - The share of high-value properties (over 5 million HKD) in transactions has rebounded for the first time since 2022, indicating an increase in investment demand [2][7] Factors Driving Demand - The primary driver for the rebound in residential volume and prices is the increased asset allocation demand in the context of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [7] - Contributing factors include the stabilization of the HKD/USD to RMB exchange rate, capital repatriation amid declining USD credit, and a strong wealth effect from rising Hong Kong stock prices [7] - Additional supportive elements include favorable talent attraction policies, an increase in international students, a rising housing demand, and a controlled supply from the government [7] Commercial and Office Market - The commercial office market in Hong Kong is under overall pressure but shows structural improvements, with increased transaction activity driven by domestic enterprises expanding their operations [14] - The rental rates for office spaces are still declining, with vacancy rates around 17%, but there is a trend of converting office spaces into student accommodations to address high vacancy rates [14] - Retail properties in core areas are experiencing improved rental conditions despite overall pressure, supported by an increase in inbound tourists and retail sales growth [14]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a significant turnaround in Q4 2025, driven by major investments from mainland internet giants and a resurgence in transaction volumes, leading to optimistic price forecasts for 2026 [1][4][11] Group 1: Market Activity - Alibaba and JD.com have invested over HKD 100 billion in core commercial properties in Hong Kong, marking a shift in market dynamics previously dominated by foreign and local family businesses [4] - In the first 11 months of 2025, Hong Kong saw 18,800 new residential transactions and 35,800 second-hand transactions, both reaching recent peaks [1] - The overall transaction volume for properties in Hong Kong is expected to reach 78,000 units for the year, a 15% increase compared to 2024, potentially setting a new high since 2021 [7] Group 2: Price Forecasts - Centaline Property predicts a 15% increase in Hong Kong property prices in 2026, while other institutions like JLL and Citigroup also express cautious optimism regarding price increases for various property segments [11] - The price of small to medium-sized residential properties is expected to rise by approximately 5% according to JLL [11] Group 3: Factors Driving Market Recovery - The reduction in stamp duty and the onset of a rate-cutting cycle have lowered entry barriers for homebuyers, stimulating market activity [2][10] - Rental prices have increased for three consecutive years, with a 4.84% rise in the first 11 months of 2025, further encouraging investment in rental properties [2] - The phenomenon of "supply being cheaper than rent" is attracting tenants to consider purchasing properties instead [2][10] Group 4: Investment Trends - High-net-worth individuals and local investors are actively participating in the market, with notable purchases from prominent real estate figures and families [5] - Mainland Chinese buyers have become a significant force in the market, with a record number of transactions in 2025, surpassing previous years [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are opting to sell their properties [1][11]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 saw the highest net absorption of Grade A office space in Hong Kong since 2018, reaching 691,800 square feet, with all major commercial districts reporting positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015 [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved for two consecutive quarters, dropping to 17.1% by the end of September, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - New leasing activity from January to Q3 2025 reached 3.3 million square feet, aligning with 2019 levels, as companies take advantage of a 43% drop in rental prices compared to early 2019 [5]. - The demand for premium office spaces in core areas remains resilient, with Central reporting a net absorption of 138,000 square feet, the highest in a decade, and only a slight rental decline of 0.3% [8][9]. Emerging Demand - The resurgence in the office market is driven by the booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, indicating a robust capital market that boosts confidence in the real estate sector [6]. New Players and Market Dynamics - Mainland companies are becoming a significant force in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a prime property in Causeway Bay exemplifying this trend [11]. - Despite new entrants, the overall market recovery is expected to take time, with a projected increase in office rental rates anticipated between 2027 and 2028 due to a significant reduction in new supply [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Currently, investors account for only 20% of office buyers, a significant drop from the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank lending and unattractive rental yields compared to other investment options [12][13]. - The overall office market faces challenges from oversupply, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a substantial new supply of 3.3 million square feet expected to take two to three years to absorb [13].