智通财经APP获悉，戴德梁行今日(1月12日)最新发表的《香港房地产市场2025年回顾及2026年展望》指 出，香港住宅楼价截至去年10月，累计上升约1.8%，预计2025年全年住宅成交量有望达约62,000宗。该 公司执行董事及香港研究部主管邓淑贤预期，2026年香港住宅楼价升幅将在5%以内。 她指出，去年香港住宅市场受惠于持续的低息环境，加上股市做好带来的财富效应，整体楼市气氛持续 向好，带动年内楼价止跌回升。而2026年成交量料与今年相若，将为楼价提供支持。 戴德梁行香港董事总经理萧亮辉表示，写字楼市场在去年底明显回暖。第四季净吸纳量录得约98.4万方 呎，带动2025年全年吸纳量升至约160万方呎，创下7年新高。 银行及金融业持续成为新租赁需求的主要动力。其中，中区租金按季上升约1.9%，整体写字楼租金亦 录得约0.4%的按季升幅。展望2026年，整体写字楼租金预计将下跌约1%至上升约1%之间窄幅波动。 零售市场方面，随着访港旅客人数回升，去年第四季零售销售气氛有所改善。中环录得多宗新租赁成 交，主要来自银行、金融及高档护肤品牌。期内整体零售物业空置率下降至约5.9%。预期2026年上半 年，整体零售 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投证券发布研报称，香港住宅成交自2025年3月起开始放量，2025年全年一二手私宅成交有望超过6万宗，达到近13年以来仅次 于2021年的第二高水平；3-5月香港房价完成筑底，2025年全年二手住宅价格有望增长4.5%。 中信建投证券认为，美联储降息背景下资产配置需求的提升，是本轮住宅量价止跌回升的主因，中信建投预计2026年香港私宅成交量将增长7.9%至6.5万 套、二手住宅价格增长4.0%，利好香港土储丰厚的开发商。香港商办市场则呈现整体承压、结构性改善的局面，内资企业加强在港业务布局推升了写字 楼交易热度，写字楼改造为学生公寓也成为应对写字楼空置的新思路；核心区域的零售物业出租情况出现改善。 中信建投主要观点如下： 香港住宅成交量价持续回升，近期成交结构中投资性需求提升。2025年前11个月香港一二手私宅成交总量54669宗，同比增长17.0%，2025年全年有望超 过6万宗，达到近13年以来仅次于2021年的第二高水平。2025年3-5月香港二手住宅价格完成底部确认，5月底的低点至今房价已回升6.2%，12月中旬房价 较2024年年底增长4.3%，2025年全年有望增长4.5 ...

随着市场成交的回暖，部分机构对香港房价走势也有了积极期盼。12月9日，中原地产预计2026年香港楼市将处于反弹初期，全年房价涨幅或达15%；仲 量联行香港主席曾焕平也在12月10日指出，香港楼价今年已见底，对2026年前景持审慎乐观态度，预期中小型住宅价格将上升约5%。 12月15日下午，中原地产香港西半山首席营业董事李巍在接受《每日经济新闻》记者（以下简称每经记者）微信采访时表示，"减息周期和租购倒挂"是推 动今年香港楼市成交大幅反弹的重要原因。 香港楼市在2025年第四季度迎来了重要转折。 短短两个月内，阿里巴巴、京东两大内地互联网巨头斥资超百亿港元，密集购入香港核心区写字楼。与此同时，地产界名人率先行动，内地高净值人群与 本地刚需客亦同步入场，带动整体成交回暖。 中原地产数据显示，2025年1—11月，香港一手住宅成交1.88万宗，二手住宅成交3.58万宗，均创近年峰值。 "2025年香港放宽印花税门槛，进入减息周期，置业门槛下降，而且港股走好，财富效应刺激买家入市意欲。租金已连续上升3年，首11个月累升4.84%， 进一步吸引投资客入市收租。与此同时，减息后'供平过租'（注：指购买房产后每月的按揭供楼 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong commercial real estate market is experiencing a dramatic shift, with tech giants like Alibaba and Ant Group investing heavily, while traditional real estate players like Dahonghui are opting to sell their properties [1][11]. Market Performance - The third quarter of 2025 saw the highest net absorption of Grade A office space in Hong Kong since 2018, reaching 691,800 square feet, with all major commercial districts reporting positive net absorption for the first time since Q2 2015 [3]. - The overall vacancy rate for Grade A offices improved for two consecutive quarters, dropping to 17.1% by the end of September, marking the largest quarterly decline since Q3 2018 [3]. Rental Trends - New leasing activity from January to Q3 2025 reached 3.3 million square feet, aligning with 2019 levels, as companies take advantage of a 43% drop in rental prices compared to early 2019 [5]. - The demand for premium office spaces in core areas remains resilient, with Central reporting a net absorption of 138,000 square feet, the highest in a decade, and only a slight rental decline of 0.3% [8][9]. Emerging Demand - The resurgence in the office market is driven by the booming IPO market and the rise of the wealth management sector, with banks and multinational companies accelerating their office space negotiations [5]. - Over 70 companies have successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this year, raising over HKD 189.3 billion, indicating a robust capital market that boosts confidence in the real estate sector [6]. New Players and Market Dynamics - Mainland companies are becoming a significant force in the Hong Kong office market, with Alibaba and Ant Group's acquisition of a prime property in Causeway Bay exemplifying this trend [11]. - Despite new entrants, the overall market recovery is expected to take time, with a projected increase in office rental rates anticipated between 2027 and 2028 due to a significant reduction in new supply [11][12]. Investment Sentiment - Currently, investors account for only 20% of office buyers, a significant drop from the historical average of 50%, primarily due to cautious bank lending and unattractive rental yields compared to other investment options [12][13]. - The overall office market faces challenges from oversupply, with a current vacancy rate of approximately 19% and a substantial new supply of 3.3 million square feet expected to take two to three years to absorb [13].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) has maintained its annual earnings per share, with dividends meeting expectations and a dividend payout ratio of 50%, resulting in a yield of 4.1% [1] Financial Performance - The company's local property development contract sales reached HKD 42.3 billion for the year, compared to HKD 25.6 billion in the same period last year [1] - The group aims for a target of HKD 30 billion in contract sales for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Sun Hung Kai Properties will record over HKD 30 billion in unrecognized sales for the fiscal year 2026, with profit margins remaining similar [1] Market Outlook - Despite negative growth in renewal rents, the company maintains a constructive outlook on the Hong Kong office and retail market [1] - For the fiscal years 2026 to 2027, significant revenue increases are expected from investment properties at the Kowloon High-Speed Rail Station IGC and Shanghai Xujiahui Center ITC [1] Financial Health - The net debt ratio of Sun Hung Kai Properties decreased from 17.8% in the first half of fiscal 2025 to 15.1% for the full year [1] - Financing costs improved from 4.4% in the same period last year to 3.7%, benefiting from an increased allocation to floating-rate debt in RMB and HKD [1] Valuation - Morgan Stanley sets a target price of HKD 102.3 for Sun Hung Kai Properties, which reflects a 50% discount to the net asset value per share [1] - The rating for the stock is "Overweight" [1]

Group 1: Residential Market Insights - The Hong Kong residential market saw a 17% month-on-month increase in total transaction volume in June, driven by a 28% surge in primary residential sales [1] - Despite the increase in transaction volume, residential prices are under pressure, with a 0.9% decline year-to-date and a 6.2% year-on-year decrease as of May [1] - The most sought-after residential properties are priced between 12 to 15 million HKD, with the most active areas being Wong Chuk Hang and Ma On Shan [1] - The luxury residential market recorded 54 transactions exceeding 78 million HKD in the second quarter, a 29% increase from the previous quarter [1] - The rental market for luxury properties is performing well, with a 0.7% month-on-month increase in May and a 1.4% increase year-to-date, driven by demand from non-local professionals and students [1] - The forecast for general residential prices is a potential decline of up to 3% this year, while luxury and general residential rents are expected to rise by 3% to 5% [1] Group 2: Office Market Dynamics - The Grade A office market is showing signs of recovery, with hedge funds being the primary tenants and significant leasing activity, such as Jane Street leasing 223,000 square feet in Central [2] - The demand for well-located, high-quality office spaces in Central remains strong, particularly for units sized between 3,000 to 5,000 square feet [2] - The IPO market in Hong Kong is performing well, attracting mainland enterprises, which is expected to boost office leasing demand in the second half of the year [2] - The Kowloon office market faces challenges due to global trade uncertainties, with subdued leasing activity noted in Kowloon East [2] - Rental prices in Tsim Sha Tsui have seen a slight increase of 0.7%, with demand primarily from the insurance, finance, and professional services sectors [2] Group 3: Retail Market Trends - The retail sector is experiencing a slowdown in expansion plans as local consumer spending decreases despite rising incomes [3] - The interest of mainland tourists in luxury goods has diminished, impacting retail strategies [3] - The consumption patterns of local citizens are evolving, with Generation Z becoming a key driver in luxury spending, emphasizing brand value, sustainability, and pricing transparency [3] - Although the tourism industry in Hong Kong is recovering, retail consumption across various sectors has not fully rebounded [3]

Group 1: Residential Market Outlook - The chairman of JLL Hong Kong, Zeng Huanping, predicts a 5% decline in small to medium-sized residential prices this year, driven by an increase in non-local professionals and students [1] - Residential rents are expected to reach historical highs due to the influx of non-local talent and students [1] - The forecast for luxury property prices has been adjusted from a 5% decline to a range of 5% to 10% due to an increase in distressed sales of commercial properties affecting luxury homeowners [1] Group 2: Commercial Property Market Outlook - The office market is showing signs of improvement, with increased leasing activity in prime locations, particularly in Central, despite an overall vacancy rate rising to 13.6% [1] - The net absorption recorded in the first half of the year was 130,700 square feet, driven by transactions in key areas like Central, Wan Chai/Causeway Bay, and Tsim Sha Tsui [1] - JLL anticipates that rental rates for prime office buildings in Central will stabilize by the end of the year, although overall office rents are expected to decline by about 5% for the year [2] Group 3: Retail Market Outlook - The vacancy rate for core area street shops remains at 10.5%, while the vacancy rate for premium shopping malls has reached a new high of 10.5% due to increased new supply and additional vacant space in existing malls [2] - The upcoming completion of approximately 600,000 square feet of new retail space is expected to exert upward pressure on vacancy rates for premium shopping malls [2] - Rental rates for core area street shops and premium malls are projected to decline by 5% to 10% this year [2]

Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The Hong Kong property market remains cautious in the first half of 2025, with no significant measures introduced in the latest government budget [1] - Recent reductions in actual mortgage interest rates and increased cash rebates from banks have slightly improved the residential market sentiment, although the non-residential property market continues to be affected by investor sell-offs [1][2] Group 2: New Property Sales and Inventory - The high inventory issue of new properties persists, with expected lower transaction volumes in 2025 compared to 2024 due to the high base effect from government measures [2] - Approximately 20,900 and 20,100 residential units are projected to be completed in 2025 and 2026, respectively, while the total first-hand transaction volume for 2024 is estimated at around 16,900 units [2] Group 3: Secondary Market Dynamics - The secondary market is stabilizing as some buyers enter due to a 30% drop in prices from previous peaks, lower interest rates, and government stamp duty relaxations, but prices remain influenced by the primary market [2] - The residential rental market is benefiting from increased demand from international students and skilled professionals, leading to a positive trend in overall rental prices [2] Group 4: Luxury and Commercial Property Market - The luxury market shows signs of demand absorption with nearly 1,000 transactions for large units in the first five months of 2025, supported by mainland buyers due to the government's investment immigration policy [3] - The overall commercial property market remains weak, with low-priced transactions and rising yields affecting property appreciation potential, although a slight improvement in the office market is expected in the second half of 2025 [4] Group 5: Student Accommodation Opportunities - The severe supply-demand imbalance in student accommodation presents an opportunity to convert underutilized commercial properties into student housing, supported by a pilot program from the Hong Kong Development Bureau and Education Bureau [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported Q1 retail sales growth in its mainland shopping centers, with Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui, Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li showing increases of 10.1%, 6%, and 1.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - Retail sales in Chengdu Taikoo Li, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui, and Beijing Yintai Center declined by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to 2024 [1] - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the introduction of more luxury brands following renovations completed at the beginning of 2025, particularly benefiting Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, with Taikoo City Centre, Taikoo Place, and Citygate Outlets showing year-on-year growth rates of +2.9%, -5%, and -5.8% respectively [2] - The overall rental rate for Hong Kong office buildings remained under pressure due to market oversupply, with a Q1 occupancy rate of 89%, consistent with the end of 2024 [2] - In mainland office projects, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui and Beijing Yintai Center saw occupancy rates increase by 1 percentage point to 91% and 84% respectively, while Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui's rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 94% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is characterized as a commercial real estate firm that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive edge [3] - Q1 performance in mainland shopping centers aligns with expectations, driven by the company's strong leasing and renovation capabilities [3] - Projected net profit growth for the company is 449%, 54%, and 37% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a consistent annual dividend growth of 5% [3]