短期矛盾放缓，碳酸锂高位盘整静待契机 一、日度市场总结 碳酸锂期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：2025年12月16日，碳酸锂主力合约价格小幅回落至 100600元/吨，较12月15日下跌0.46%。基差走强，12月16日为-4800元/ 吨，较12月15日收窄1960元。 持仓与成交 ：持仓量继续扩大，12月16日达666027手，较12月15日增加 3842手。成交量收缩，12月16日为597317手，较2025年12月15日减少 102284手。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：锂辉石精矿价格2025年12月16日小幅走高至9665元/吨，较2025 年12月15日上涨97元，而锂云母精矿价格维持稳定在5175元/吨。产能利用 率显著提升，2025年12月12日达83.52%，较2025年12月5日的75.34%上升 8.18个百分点。资讯显示，伴随新产线投产及下游需求拉动，12月国内碳 酸锂产量预计环比增长约3%，供应端整体稳步扩张。 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn 孙 ...

Core Viewpoint - Wanrun New Energy has signed a five-year business cooperation agreement with CATL to supply approximately 1.3231 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products, significantly boosting its revenue potential and market position [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The agreement stipulates an average annual supply of 264,600 tons from May 2025 to 2030, with a total contract value estimated between 42.3 billion to 44.2 billion yuan, translating to an average annual revenue contribution of 8.46 billion to 8.84 billion yuan [1]. - This order represents about 10.6% of CATL's total demand based on the projected domestic lithium iron phosphate production of 2.48 million tons in 2024 [1][2]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Despite the significant revenue increase, Wanrun New Energy's gross margin for lithium iron phosphate in 2024 is projected to be only 0.08%, far below the industry leader Hunan Yueneng's 7.63% [1][2]. - The company reported a year-on-year increase in shipment volume of 138% to 74,000 tons in Q1, but its losses expanded to 156 million yuan, indicating challenges in profitability despite higher sales volume [1]. Group 3: Market Position and Strategy - The agreement allows Wanrun New Energy to potentially move from the third tier of the industry (approximately 10% market share) towards a more prominent position [1][2]. - The company is also exploring high-density lithium iron phosphate products for fast-charging batteries, which could enhance profit margins if technological breakthroughs are achieved [2]. - The trend of order concentration among leading battery manufacturers may further squeeze market share for smaller suppliers, emphasizing the importance of technological advancement [2][3]. Group 4: Industry Outlook - The lithium iron phosphate industry is expected to transition from a "price war" to a "value war" by 2025, with leading firms that can control costs and innovate technologically likely to dominate the market [3]. - Wanrun New Energy's strategy to extend upstream into phosphate and lithium resources aims to reduce costs and improve its competitive edge in a low-margin environment [3].