丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨湖南裕能（301358.SZ） [Table_Title] 湖南裕能 2025 三季报分析：出货高增，盈利改 善，看好价格修复和一体化布局下的业绩弹性 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2025 年三季报，公司 2025Q3 营业收入 88.68 亿元，同比+73.97%，环比+16.76%； 归母净利润 3.40 亿元，同比+235.31%，环比+61.26%；扣非净利润 3.24 亿元，同比+238.85%， 环比+44.16%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 曹海花 叶之楠 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520090003 SFC：BQK482 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 湖南裕能（301358.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 湖南裕能 2025 2] 三季报分析：出货高增，盈利改 善，看好价格修复 ...

证券日报网讯湖南裕能11月24日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，向上游布局磷矿资源是公司 完善一体化布局的重要环节，公司自取得磷矿采矿许可证以来，有序推进矿山建设，目前整体进展较为 顺利，黄家坡磷矿在四季度陆续出矿。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

南财智讯11月24日电，湖南裕能在投资者关系活动中表示，公司向上游磷矿资源延伸是完善一体化布局 的重要举措，自取得采矿许可证后有序推进矿山建设，黄家坡磷矿已于四季度陆续出矿。此外，公司在 西班牙布局年产5万吨锂电池正极材料生产基地，目前与国内外多家客户保持积极沟通，项目进展顺 利。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company demonstrated strong performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 7.34% to 22.32 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 8.31% to 3.34 billion yuan. The Q3 revenue was 6.99 billion yuan, slightly down by 0.35% year-on-year and 5.53% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose by 24.30% year-on-year and 22.41% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to rising aluminum prices and lower electricity costs [4][5] - The company is expected to perform even better in Q4 2025, with continued high aluminum prices and decreasing bauxite costs. The profit forecasts for 2025 to 2027 have been raised, with expected net profits of 4.845 billion, 5.905 billion, and 6.962 billion yuan respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 8.7%, 21.9%, and 17.9% [4][5] - The company is advancing its 1.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity green low-carbon efficiency improvement project, with the first batch of aluminum ingots expected to be produced by December 2025 [5] - The company has implemented a share buyback plan, repurchasing 23.71 million shares, which is 0.51% of its total share capital. Additionally, it plans to distribute cash dividends of no less than 50% of the annual net profit [6] Financial Summary - For 2025, the company is projected to achieve a revenue of 29.169 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. The net profit is expected to be 4.845 billion yuan, reflecting an 8.7% increase. The EPS for 2025 is estimated at 1.04 yuan per share, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 12.4 times [8][10]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its Q3 2025 financial results, showing stable revenue growth and significant profit increases, primarily driven by rising aluminum prices [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 22.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was 6.99 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year and a 5.5% decline quarter-on-quarter, while net profit rose to 1.26 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.4% [1]. - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 22.4%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a net margin of 15.0%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Production and Pricing - The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons, and is expected to operate at full capacity for alumina in Q3 2025 [2]. - The average aluminum price for Q1-Q3 2025 was 20,447 yuan per ton, up 3.7% year-on-year, with Q3 2025 prices reaching 20,710 yuan per ton, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% [2]. Future Outlook - The company is expanding its electrolytic aluminum capacity by 200,000 tons, with completion expected in 2026, enhancing its integrated layout and raw material security [4]. - The company is investing in a 200,000-ton alumina production line in Indonesia, with a total investment of $1.556 billion, which is expected to further expand its electrolytic aluminum production capabilities [4]. - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with plans for an annual production capacity of 5-6 million tons [4]. Investment Recommendation - The supply-demand dynamics for electrolytic aluminum are favorable, and the company's integrated advantages are expected to continue driving performance growth. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 4.7 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, corresponding to price-earnings ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times, respectively [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [5][7]. Core Views - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 22.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.34 billion yuan, up 8.3% year-on-year [1]. - The increase in aluminum prices has driven profitability, with the average aluminum price for the first three quarters of 2025 at 20,447 yuan per ton, a 3.7% increase year-on-year [2]. - The company is expected to release an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity in 2026, enhancing its integrated layout and resource security [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.99 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.3% year-on-year, but a net profit of 1.26 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 24.3% [1][2]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 27.2%, up 4.7 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising aluminum prices [2][3]. Production Capacity and Cost Advantages - The company currently has an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons [2]. - The company benefits from low energy costs due to its operations in Xinjiang, where coal resources are abundant, contributing to a strong sustainability of high profitability [4]. Future Outlook - The strategic acquisition of three bauxite mines in Indonesia and plans to invest 1.556 billion USD to build a 2 million ton alumina production line are expected to further expand the company's production capabilities [4]. - The company has also secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and plans to produce 5-6 million tons of bauxite annually, enhancing its raw material supply [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 4.70 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [5][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" due to steady performance growth and significant benefits from rising cobalt prices [5][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 58.941 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 29.57%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.216 billion yuan, up 39.59% year-on-year [7]. - Cobalt prices have surged significantly, rising from 170,000 yuan/ton to 410,000 yuan/ton, a 140% increase, driven by supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [7]. - The company is expanding its nickel business, with projects in Indonesia that could lead to substantial profit increases once nickel prices rebound [7]. - A strategic agreement with leading companies in the lithium battery supply chain is expected to enhance the company's long-term profitability [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 70.439 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.58% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 6.038 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 45.33% [6]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 3.18 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.41 [6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China, as the largest titanium dioxide producer globally, is positioned to increase its market share due to the shutdown of several overseas production facilities [2][3] - In 2024, China's titanium dioxide production capacity is expected to account for 56% of the global total, with the CR4 concentration at 44% [2] - The domestic titanium dioxide industry is characterized by a structure of "one strong leader, multiple strong players, and a long tail," with Longbai Group leading in capacity and market share [3] Group 2 - The domestic demand for titanium dioxide is closely related to the real estate sector, with a positive correlation between housing construction and apparent consumption [4] - Despite anti-dumping investigations from several countries, there remain opportunities for China's titanium dioxide exports due to high dependency on imports in some major markets [4] - The average operating rate for domestic titanium dioxide was 70% from January to August 2025, leading to a significant accumulation of inventory and a downward trend in prices [5] Group 3 - The price difference for domestic sulfuric acid titanium dioxide products reached 5,278 yuan/ton as of September 19, marking the lowest level since 2006 [5] - Approximately 19% of the titanium dioxide production capacity in China is over 20 years old, indicating a significant portion of aging capacity in the industry [6] Group 4 - Longbai Group is highlighted as a key player in the industry, with a comprehensive layout across the titanium value chain, including titanium dioxide, sponge titanium, zirconium products, and lithium battery materials [7] - The company has a production capacity of 1.51 million tons per year for titanium dioxide and 80,000 tons per year for sponge titanium, both ranking first globally [7] - Longbai Group possesses multiple mining rights, ensuring a stable supply of titanium concentrate for production [7]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant bottom characteristics, with leading manufacturers considering active acquisitions to reduce the capacity of small and medium enterprises, aiming to end the industry's internal competition [1] Financial Performance - Trina Solar reported a revenue of 31.06 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decline of 27.72%, and a net loss of 2.918 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 654.47% [2] - The company's total assets at the end of the reporting period were approximately 125.69 billion yuan, compared to 123.93 billion yuan at the end of the previous year [2] - The total liabilities reached 965.1 billion yuan, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 76.79%, marking a new high in recent quarters [5][10] Market Position and Stock Performance - Trina Solar's market capitalization was 37.6 billion yuan as of October 13, with a year-to-date decline of over 10%, while competitors like LONGi Green Energy saw a year-to-date increase of over 15% [3] - Compared to its peak, Trina Solar's stock price has decreased by approximately 80%, resulting in a market value loss exceeding 150 billion yuan [3] Expansion Strategy and Challenges - The company's aggressive expansion strategy, initiated in response to supply chain issues, has led to a significant increase in fixed assets, which rose from 100.1 billion yuan in 2020 to 300.7 billion yuan in the first half of this year [10] - Trina Solar's production capacity has expanded significantly, with a total capacity of 55 GW for silicon wafers, 75 GW for batteries, and 95 GW for modules by the end of 2023 [9][10] Industry Trends and Pricing Pressure - The photovoltaic industry is facing downward pressure on component prices, with polysilicon prices dropping from 300 yuan/kg in 2022 to 60 yuan/kg by the end of 2024 [12] - The gross margin for Trina Solar's photovoltaic products turned negative at -2.49% in the first half of the year, compared to 11.13% in the same period last year [13] Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the industry shows signs of recovery, with a significant increase in installed capacity, reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of the year, a year-on-year growth of 149.96% [15] - Trina Solar's component shipment volume exceeded 32 GW in the first half of the year, maintaining its position as the global leader in cumulative shipments [15]

Core Viewpoint - Tongkun Co., Ltd. reported a decrease in revenue for the first half of 2025, with a total revenue of 44.158 billion yuan, down 8.41% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 2.93% to 1.097 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.73%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.38% [1] - The net profit for Q2 2025 was 486 million yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.04% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 20.54% [1] Group 2: Product Performance - The main revenue contributors were polyester filament and purified terephthalic acid (PTA), with revenues of 37.932 billion yuan and 3.521 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 86% and 8% of total revenue [1] - Production and sales volumes for key products were as follows: POY (4.8696 million tons produced, 4.3796 million tons sold), FDY (1.0877 million tons produced, 1.0295 million tons sold), DTY (585.6 thousand tons produced, 543.5 thousand tons sold), and PTA (767.5 thousand tons produced, 825.1 thousand tons sold) [1] - Price changes for key products were: POY at 6,160.30 yuan/ton (-9.99% YoY), FDY at 6,464.69 yuan/ton (-15.90% YoY), DTY at 7,688.11 yuan/ton (-9.07% YoY), and PTA at 4,267.54 yuan/ton (-19.11% YoY) [1] Group 3: Company Background and Industry Position - Tongkun Co., Ltd. is the largest polyester filament producer globally, with a comprehensive product range including various types of polyester filament [2] - The company has a strong market position, ranking 34th among China's top 500 private enterprises and 25th among China's top 500 private manufacturing enterprises in 2025 [2] Group 4: Production Capacity and Supply Chain - As of mid-2025, the company has a total of 13 million tons of polymerization capacity and 13.5 million tons of filament capacity, leading the industry in filament capacity and output [3] - The company has established multiple production bases across China, ensuring a robust supply chain, with PTA production capacity of 10.2 million tons, achieving self-sufficiency in raw materials [3] Group 5: Profitability Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.53% in net profit attributable to shareholders over the next three years, with a target price of 18.00 yuan based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025 [3]