1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economic growth is slowing down, and the Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, which may indirectly affect egg prices through inflation expectations. However, China's egg prices are mainly determined by domestic supply - demand relations [8]. - In 2025, the domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. But the supply pressure is expected to ease in the future, and the egg price is expected to stabilize and rebound next year [15]. - The industrial subsidy policies may reduce the breeding cost in the long - term but may also lead to over - capacity expansion, while the environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by significant supply - demand imbalance. In December, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, and the egg price has fundamental support, but the upside space is restricted [24]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs International Situation - The global economic growth slows down. The IMF predicts that the global GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and may further slow down to 3.1% in 2026 [8]. - The Fed has cut interest rates, which may lead to inflation expectations and increase the cost of egg breeding, but the impact on China's egg prices is indirect [8]. - The global egg market scale in 2025 is $121.42 billion with a growth rate of 8.9%. Due to the impact of avian influenza, the egg prices in different countries have diverged, and China's exports may increase [11]. Domestic Situation - China's economic situation is generally stable, but domestic demand is insufficient. The GDP in the first three quarters of 2025 is 101.5 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, and the annual growth is expected to be about 5.0% [15]. - The continuous low egg price reflects the imbalance between supply and demand of agricultural products in China. Although the impact on CPI is limited, it is regarded as an inflation "wind - vane" [15]. - The domestic egg market has a core contradiction of oversupply and weak demand. The inventory of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is affected by substitutes. The egg price is low, and the breeding profit is at a five - year low. However, the supply pressure is expected to ease [15]. Macro Policy - There are industrial support policies such as subsidies for farmers using self - bred improved varieties, and financial support policies like loan interest subsidies and policy - based insurance [18]. - Overall, industrial subsidy policies may lead to over - capacity, while environmental protection and epidemic prevention policies are beneficial to the long - term development of the industry [18]. Supply - Demand Fundamentals and Annual Viewpoint Strategy - In November 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.307 billion, showing a slight decline. In December, the number of newly - opened laying hens will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level [22][49]. - As of December 12, the average price in the main production areas was 3.09 yuan per catty. In the short term, the egg price is under pressure, while in the medium term, the supply - demand expectation has improved [22][36]. - The egg market in 2025 is characterized by supply - demand imbalance. The supply - demand pattern is changing, and the egg price has support but limited upside. The strategy is that the main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, and long positions in far - month contracts and call options can be considered in the medium term [24]. Technical Analysis - In the short term, the JD2603 contract shows a downward - oscillating trend, with the 5 - day moving average in a short - selling arrangement. The K - line may indicate a short - term rebound, but the 20 - day moving average is a strong resistance [103]. - In the medium - term on the weekly level, there is a "double - top" prototype, and if the neck - line support at about 3012 points is broken, the price may fall further [103]. - The support level is 2937 - 3000, and the resistance level is 3150 - 3195 [104].

近期，国内鸡蛋价格持续走低，部分地区已跌破3元／斤关口。而近日鸡蛋期货价格迎来了反弹，这波 反弹能否持续？对此，记者采访了行业人士。 "短期现货价格止跌企稳、阶段性淘鸡加速预期叠加年底消费旺季备货预期，驱动2601合约、2602合约 大幅走强。"张晓君说。 魏鑫介绍，当前鸡蛋仍然处于供应相对过剩的状态，需求总体平稳，处于两个需求旺季间的相对淡季之 中。在连续9个月存栏上行并持续打破近年来存栏纪录后，10月存栏量出现小幅下降，在持续亏损局面 下，市场预期存栏下滑的趋势至少持续至春节前。同时从周度淘汰情况可以看到，11月淘鸡积极性继续 增强，对存栏下滑的逻辑形成进一步巩固。消费端总体不温不火，在大量供应下，最终会以价格偏弱的 形式达成最终的供需平衡。 卓创资讯数据显示，9月全国在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.68亿只，10月在产蛋鸡存栏量为13.59亿只，环比降幅 0.66%，同比增幅5.59%。根据影响在产蛋鸡存栏量的重要指标如补栏量、出栏量、上月存栏基数等， 可推断11月在产蛋鸡存栏量理论预估值为13.6亿只，环比增加0.07%，将处于2015年以来同期最高水 平。 "市场重点关注淘鸡对应的去产能节奏。虽然今年以来淘鸡 ...