Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite entering the traditional demand peak season for eggs, egg prices are declining due to high supply pressure, with the main futures contract hitting a new low of 3478 yuan per 500 kg [1][3] - As of July 31, the number of laying hens in China reached 135.6 million, continuing to increase, which contributes to the bearish market sentiment [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the current low prices are driven by basis adjustment, with the near-month contract basis previously at a historical low of nearly -1000 yuan per 500 kg, leading to increased selling pressure in the futures market [3][4] Group 2 - The price ratio between culling chickens and egg prices has been rising since February, indicating insufficient culling efforts, with the number of old chickens culled reaching a historical low for the same period since 2020 [4][5] - The current structure of laying hens shows a low proportion of old chickens waiting to be culled, and the recovery of breeding profitability has reduced the willingness to cull, which may suppress egg prices [4][6] - The seasonal demand for eggs is expected to lead to a limited rebound in prices, with market expectations for peak prices around 3.8 yuan per jin, influenced by the overlapping Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [6]