南华期货鸡蛋产业周报 ——期现分歧加大 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月02日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前鸡蛋市场的矛盾体现为由春节备货驱动的"强现实"与市场对节后产能及需求的"弱预期"之间的激烈博弈。 现货市场呈现典型的"强现实"特征。受终端春节前集中备货的强劲需求拉动，市场走货速度明显加快，生产与 流通环节库存均维持在低位。在低库存与高需求的共同支撑下，产地鸡蛋价格持续走强，养殖环节盈利情况 得到显著改善。但是，当下的强现实造成的是市场对鸡蛋未来预期的担忧。产能去化进度虽在前期有所进 展，但随着盈利情况的改善，强烈刺激了养殖户的惜淘情绪 ，去化意愿逐步减弱甚至部分养殖户鸡苗补栏意 愿加强。总结来说就是短期不可持续的备货影响了长期供需平衡的修复。 中国鸡蛋主销区周度销量季节性 source： 南华研究 吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 05/01 09/01 2500 5000 7500 10,000 淘汰鸡出栏季节性 source： 南华研究 万只 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite entering the traditional demand peak season for eggs, egg prices are declining due to high supply pressure, with the main futures contract hitting a new low of 3478 yuan per 500 kg [1][3] - As of July 31, the number of laying hens in China reached 135.6 million, continuing to increase, which contributes to the bearish market sentiment [3][4] - Analysts indicate that the current low prices are driven by basis adjustment, with the near-month contract basis previously at a historical low of nearly -1000 yuan per 500 kg, leading to increased selling pressure in the futures market [3][4] Group 2 - The price ratio between culling chickens and egg prices has been rising since February, indicating insufficient culling efforts, with the number of old chickens culled reaching a historical low for the same period since 2020 [4][5] - The current structure of laying hens shows a low proportion of old chickens waiting to be culled, and the recovery of breeding profitability has reduced the willingness to cull, which may suppress egg prices [4][6] - The seasonal demand for eggs is expected to lead to a limited rebound in prices, with market expectations for peak prices around 3.8 yuan per jin, influenced by the overlapping Mid-Autumn and National Day holidays [6]