研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 03 月 02 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3618 | 3645 | -27 | 01-05 | 212 | 216 | -4 | | JD05 | 3406 | 3429 | -23 | 05-09 | -402 | -388 | -14 | | JD09 | 3808 | 3817 | -9 | 09-01 | 190 | 172 | 18 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.54 | 1.57 | -0.03 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.21 | -0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.43 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2026 年 02 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 Z0014425 联系方式： :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3615 | 3702 | -87 | 01-05 | 202 | 259 | -57 | | JD05 | 3413 | 3443 | -30 | 05-09 | -387 | -378 | -9 | | JD09 | 3800 | 3821 | -21 | 09-01 | 185 | 119 | 66 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.60 | -0.04 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.20 | 1.24 | -0.04 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.46 | 1.47 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the good profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3778, down 12 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3429, down 41; JD09 closed at 3819, down 40 [2]. - **Cross - Month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread closed at 349, up 29; the 05 - 09 spread closed at - 390, down 1; the 09 - 01 spread closed at 41, down 28 [2]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.64, down 0.01; the 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.28, unchanged; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.47, down 0.03; the 05 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.23, down 0.01; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.62, down 0.03; the 09 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.32, down 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price remained stable, with prices in most regions showing little change [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day. Most regional prices were stable, with only a few areas showing price changes [2][4][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost and Price Changes**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.43 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan/feather, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines remained stable at 3 yuan. The average price of corn was 2375 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3164 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan/jin, unchanged [2]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit per feather was - 4.51 yuan, down 16.73 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, down 0.42 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, down 0.52 yuan/jin. The national mainstream price was stable, and the egg price continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than expected [4]. - **Chick Hatch Volume**: In January, the monthly hatch volume of chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuo Chuang Information (accounting for about 50% of the country) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Culled Chicken Data**: In the week of February 12, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was 13.17 million, a decrease of 20% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6 was 497 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of February 12, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 6390 tons, a decrease of 12% from the previous week, at a low level in the same period over the years [5]. - **Profit and Inventory**: As of February 12, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was 0.12 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.4 yuan/jin from the previous week; on February 12, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 13.12 yuan/feather, the same as the previous week. The weekly average inventory in the production link was 1.24 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.26 days, the same as the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - Due to good previous profit performance, the market enthusiasm for culling has decreased, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering the post - Spring Festival egg consumption off - season and the recent good egg prices weakening the overall capacity reduction, it is advisable to short the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3790, up 20 from the previous close; JD05 closed at 3392, down 32; JD09 closed at 3875, down 4 [2]. - **JD Cross - month Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread was 398, up 52; the 05 - 09 spread was - 483, down 28; the 09 - 01 spread was 85, down 24 [2]. - **Egg/Corn and Egg/Soybean Meal Ratios**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, up 0.01; the 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.30, up 0.01. The 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.49, down 0.01; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.24, down 0.01. The 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.68, unchanged; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.36, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.30 yuan/jin, up 0.01 from the previous day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4]. - **Eliminated Chicken Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Profit per Chicken**: The profit per chicken was 12.72 yuan, up 0.34 from the previous day [2]. - **Feed Prices**: The average price of corn was 2369 yuan, up 1; the average price of soybean meal was 3174 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Egg Production and Sales**: The national mainstream egg price remained stable. The egg prices in most regions were stable, with only local fluctuations. The egg sales in the representative sales areas as of February 5th were 7210 tons, down 2.3% from the previous week, but still at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [4][5]. - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In January, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, but an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected [4]. - **Chicken Chick Output**: The monthly output of chicken chicks in January (about 50% of the national total) was 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change [4]. - **Egg - laying Hen Culling**: From February 6th, the weekly culling volume of egg - laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [5]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week [5]. - **Profit Situation**: As of February 5th, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan/jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. So, it is recommended to consider shorting the June contract on rallies [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Consider shorting the June contract on rallies [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg market is currently in a state of "strong supply and weak demand" as the Spring Festival stocking nears its end. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [5][16][17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.45 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.53 yuan per catty from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.62 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.72 yuan per catty from last Friday. Egg prices are expected to continue falling before the Spring Festival [5] - The price of old hens has been weakly adjusted after falling from a high. The market demand support is average, and the supply - demand of the old hen market is relatively stable [5] 3.1.2 Supply Analysis - According to Zhuochuang data, the weekly egg - chicken culling volume in the main producing areas of the country from February 6th was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in the week of February 6th was 495 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous week [10] - In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly output of egg - chicken chicks from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in January was 43.22 million, a 9% month - on - month increase and little change year - on - year [10] 3.1.3 Cost Analysis - As of February 5th, the corn price was around 2,368 yuan per ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3,176 yuan per ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2,610 yuan per ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan per catty of eggs [13] - The feed price fluctuated little this week, and the cost per catty of eggs was flat month - on - month. The average weekly profit per catty of eggs decreased. As of January 15th, the average weekly profit per catty of eggs was 0.52 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan per catty from the previous week. On February 6th, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per bird, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per catty from the previous week [13] 3.1.4 Demand Analysis - As the festival stocking nears the end, the market starts risk control in advance. The sales in markets such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Dongguan have slowed down significantly, and the price is under pressure. The sales in the selling areas have decreased month - on - month. As of February 6th, the weekly egg sales in the national representative selling areas were 7,304 tons, a 1.5% increase from the previous week, at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [16] - After the festival stocking ended, egg prices entered a rapid decline cycle, and egg inventories showed a "rapid inventory accumulation" trend. The inventory days in the production and circulation links increased month - on - month for many consecutive days. As of the week of January 23rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.26 days, with little change from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.45 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week [16] - This week, the vegetable price index rebounded slightly. On February 4th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 132. The pork price also rebounded slightly. As of January 31st, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 14.67 yuan per kilogram, with little change from the previous week [16] 3.1.5 Trading Strategies - Trading logic: As the Spring Festival approaches, the Spring Festival stocking is basically coming to an end. The market's enthusiasm for culling has decreased, and the overall capacity reduction has slowed down. Considering that the egg consumption will enter the off - season after the Spring Festival, it is advisable to consider shorting the June contract [17] - Single - side: Consider shorting the June contract [17] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [17] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [17] 3.2 Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 3.2.1 Egg - Chicken Farming Situation - No specific data or analysis content provided in the text 3.2.2 Spread and Basis - The text provides the basis and spread data from 2018 - 2025 for different contract months (January, May, September), including 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, 9 - 1 spread, etc., but no specific analysis is made [24][25]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Good Demand Performance, Egg Prices Stable with a Slight Increase [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided text Core Viewpoints - The egg market is influenced by multiple factors including supply, demand, cost, and price trends. The current price increase is mainly due to pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, but the price increase of the 03 futures contract is expected to be limited. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the far - month 5 - contract on dips, and to remain on the sidelines for arbitrage and options trading [17] Summary by Directory Part 1: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 3.7 yuan/jin, up 0.5 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 3.95 yuan/jin, up 0.55 yuan/jin from last Friday. The national egg market continued to rise driven by Spring Festival stocking. The price increase strengthened farmers' reluctance to sell and pressure on inventory, but weak downstream demand limited the price increase space. After reaching a high, the price in the producing areas stabilized with narrow - range adjustments [5] 2. Supply Analysis - Affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking demand, the egg price rose rapidly, and the market's bullish expectation increased. The shipment volume in the producing areas increased significantly. According to Zhuochuang data, the slaughter volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of January 23 was 16.27 million, a 5% decrease from the previous week, and the average slaughter age was 490 days, 5 days more than the previous week. In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly hatching volume of laying hen chicks in the sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - The feed cost changed little during the week. As of January 22, the corn price was around 2370 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 3180 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2613 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.87 yuan/jin for eggs. The futures price increase at the beginning of the week drove up the corn price in the northern port and Northeast producing areas. The corn price in North China continued to fluctuate, and the price in the selling areas rose slightly. As of January 15, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.44 yuan/jin, up 0.31 yuan/jin from the previous week. On January 16, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 13.63 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.51 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - At the beginning of the week, the Spring Festival stocking led to a concentrated release of demand, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased steadily. In the middle and late weeks, the sales growth slowed down. The overall demand was good during the week, and the sales volume in the selling areas increased month - on - month. As of the week of January 23, the sales volume of eggs in the national representative selling areas was 7210 tons, a 2.3% decrease from the previous week, and it was at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. Due to the continuous increase in egg prices, farmers' losses decreased, and they mostly sold their goods to lock in profits. With the approach of the Spring Festival, the demand from multiple channels increased, and the inventory in the production and circulation links decreased significantly and was currently at a low level. As of the week of January 23, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The vegetable price index and pork price rebounded slightly [16] 5. Trading Strategies - Trading logic: Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the overall sales are fast, and the spot price has risen significantly. The current egg production is starting to reduce capacity, and it is expected that the capacity will continue to decline in the next few months. However, the 03 contract is a post - Spring Festival contract, and the upward space is expected to be limited. - Unilateral trading: Consider building long positions in the far - month 5 - contract on dips. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to remain on the sidelines [17] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Laying Hen Farming Situation - Not elaborated in detail in the provided text, only mentions the slaughter age of laying hens and the average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas [21] 2. Spread and Basis - The text provides data on the basis and spreads of different contracts such as the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts in different years, but no specific analysis is given [24][25][28]

Report Title - Egg Weekly Report: Demand Improves Slightly, Egg Prices Edge Up [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The egg market is driven by sentiment, with prices rising due to pre - Spring Festival stocking, but there is pressure to digest the rapid short - term increase. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the price trend in 2026 will be affected by factors such as supply adjustment and seasonal demand [5][17] Summary by Section First Part: Logic Analysis and Trading Strategies 1. Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main production areas was 3.2 yuan/jin, up 0.3 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.4 yuan/jin, also up 0.3 yuan/jin. The market was boosted by sentiment, but there was pressure to digest the rapid price increase. The price of old hens in the production areas remained stable, with a weekly average of around 4.10 yuan/jin [5] 2. Supply Analysis - From January 8th, the weekly egg chicken culling volume in the main production areas was 18.96 million, a 4.3% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 484 days, the same as the previous week. In December, the national laying hen inventory was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a 5% year - on - year increase, and lower than expected. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [10] 3. Cost Analysis - As of January 9th, the corn price was around 2351 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price was 3190 yuan/ton. The comprehensive feed cost was about 2603 yuan/ton, and the cost per jin of eggs remained stable. As of January 8th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.13 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On January 18th, the expected profit of egg chicken farming was - 14.14 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.41 yuan/jin from the previous week [13] 4. Demand Analysis - As of January 8th, the weekly egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7377 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years. As of December 18th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly decreasing from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly increasing from the previous week. On December 17th, the vegetable price index and pork price both showed a slight recovery [16] 5. Trading Strategies - In the cash market, it is expected that the supply pressure will be greatly relieved in the first half of 2026, and the egg price will gradually strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase will be limited. In the second half of the year, the supply is uncertain, and the price is likely to rise during the peak consumption season. In the futures market, it is recommended to consider building long positions at low prices for the May contract in the first - half peak season and short - term long positions with high - level closing for the August and September contracts. For the short - term February contract, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and long positions can be considered for the distant - month contracts. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [17] Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking 1. Egg Chicken Farming Situation - Not provided with specific summarized data 2. Spread and Basis - The document shows the basis and spread data of different contract months (January, May, September) from 2018 - 2025, but no specific summarized data is provided [24][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction in the short - term will be relatively gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3077, JD05 at 3496, and JD09 at 3974, all unchanged from the previous day. The spreads between different months (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) also remained unchanged [2]. - Price ratios: Ratios of egg to corn and egg to soybean meal for different contracts (01, 05, 09) remained unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas was 2.99 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, while the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. Egg prices in most regions were stable, with some local fluctuations [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 3.84 yuan/jin, down 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of corn was 2348 yuan, down 1 yuan from the previous day; the average price of soybean meal was 3118 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - laying chicken compound feed was 2.58 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was - 0.37 yuan/feather, down 2.87 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg production and sales: In November, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The sales volume of eggs in representative sales areas as of December 18 was 7023 tons, remaining at a low level over the years [5]. - Chicken inventory and production: The number of culled chickens in the main production areas as of December 18 was 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 486 days, remaining unchanged [5]. - Profit situation: As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, showing a slight recovery; on December 12, the expected profit of egg - laying chicken farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, down 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory situation: As of December 18, the weekly average inventory in the production link was 1 day, showing a slight decrease, while the weekly average inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, showing a slight increase [6]. 3.5 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. It is expected that near - month contracts will fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month May contract, considering the alleviation of supply pressure, one can consider building long positions at low prices [8]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term. One can consider building long positions in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be relatively gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Information - **Price and Market Conditions**: The average price in the main producing areas today is 3 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.22 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged. The national mainstream prices are mostly stable, with egg prices in major Beijing markets remaining stable. Egg prices in Northeast China, Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are generally stable, with local price fluctuations. Egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate, and the sales are normal [4]. - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory**: In November, the national in - production laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises in November was about 39.55 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated in - production laying hen inventories in December 2025, January, February, and March 2026 are approximately 1.348 billion, 1.338 billion, 1.325 billion, and 1.315 billion respectively [5]. - **Laying Hen Culling**: In the week of November 27th, the number of culled laying hens in the main producing areas was 21.97 million, an increase of 8.7% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens in that week was 489 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [5]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of November 21st, the egg sales volume in representative selling areas was 7472 tons, an increase of 1.2% compared to the previous week [6]. - **Profit Situation**: As of November 13th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.15 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On November 6th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 6.1 yuan/feather, a decrease of 1.19 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of the week of November 21st, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.2 days, an increase of 0.15 days from the previous week [6]. - **Culled Chicken Price**: Today, the national culled chicken price has decreased, with the average price in the main producing areas at 3.8 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. 3.2 Trading Logic The recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be established at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: It is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions can be considered to be established in far - month contracts at low prices [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Although the recent increase in the number of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure, the number of laying hens in production remains at a high level. It is expected that the pace of capacity reduction will be relatively gradual in the short term. Considering that the current spot average price is still around 2.8 - 2.9 yuan per catty, while the December main contract has given a certain premium, the upside potential is expected to be relatively limited [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: JD01 closed at 3373, down 10 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3577, up 72; JD09 closed at 3881, up 25 [2]. - **Spread**: The 01 - 05 spread was -204, down 82; the 05 - 09 spread was -304, up 47; the 09 - 01 spread was 508, up 35 [2]. - **Ratio**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.55, down 0.01; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, up 0.03; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.70, up 0.01. The 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.10, unchanged; the 05 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.26, up 0.02; the 09 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.31, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.99 yuan per catty, down 0.01 yuan from the previous day; the average price in the main selling areas was 3.21 yuan per catty, down 0.02 yuan from the previous day. The national mainstream prices showed a mix of increases and stability [2][4]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 4 yuan per catty, up 0.01 yuan from the previous day [2][7]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - **Cost**: The average cost of corn was 2252 yuan, up 8 yuan; the average cost of soybean meal was 3080 yuan, unchanged; the average cost of laying - hen compound feed was 2.50 yuan, up 0.01 yuan [2]. - **Income**: The average price of culled chickens was 4.02 yuan, up 0.02 yuan; the average price of chicks was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of laying - hen vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged [2]. - **Profit**: The profit per laying hen was 4.34 yuan, down 0.60 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - **Supply**: In October, the number of laying hens in production nationwide was 1.359 billion, a decrease of 0.01 billion from the previous month, and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The monthly output of chicks in October was 39.2 million, with little change month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The number of culled chickens in the week of November 6 was 19.81 million, a decrease of 3% from the previous week. The average age of culled chickens was 493 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5]. - **Demand**: As of November 6, the weekly sales volume of eggs in representative selling areas nationwide was 7300 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week [6]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.06 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week [6]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10].