联系方式： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2025 年 08 月 26 日 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号： Z0014425 :liuqiannan_qh@chinastock. com.cn 鸡蛋日报 第一部分鸡蛋日报 | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | JD跨月价差 | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | JD01 | 3376 | 3383 | -7 | 01-05 | -99 | -99 | 0 | | JD05 | 3475 | 3482 | -7 | 05-09 | 559 | 531 | 28 | | JD09 | 2916 | 2951 | -35 | 09-01 | -460 | -432 | -28 | | 今收 | | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 今收 | 昨收 | 涨跌 | | 01鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.56 | 1.57 | -0.01 | 01鸡蛋/豆粕 | 1.10 | 1.09 | 0.01 | | 05鸡蛋/玉米 | 1.5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the spot price of eggs dropped significantly, with a still high supply level. Under hot and humid weather, all sectors actively sold their goods, but market demand was average, and downstream procurement was cautious. After continuous price drops, the industry's willingness to purchase increased over the weekend, and the spot price stopped falling, showing a slow upward trend in the short term. As of August 9, the average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin. Egg prices were close to the feed cost line, and the industry was in deep losses [2][4]. - In August, the egg supply level remained high, and high egg prices would prompt cold - storage eggs to enter the market. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so there were no bright spots in consumption in the first and middle of August, and there was no strong driving factor for egg prices. However, egg consumption might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [4]. - The egg - laying hen production capacity was still large. Recently, the number of old hen culls did not increase significantly, and the new hen laying level was high. The in - production inventory of laying hens might continue to increase month - on - month. Also, there were many cold - storage eggs and old hen molting this year, shifting some supply pressure to the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. Therefore, the supply pressure during this year's Mid - Autumn Festival was expected to be large, and the increase in egg prices before the festival was limited [4]. - Last week, futures contracts continued to fall, and the main 09 contract hit a record low. However, the fundamental situation of loose egg supply and demand did not change significantly. As the industry entered the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, the market was divided on the height of egg price increases. Due to the large supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival this year, the expected increase was limited. The 09 contract had some post - festival attributes, and its valuation was low, so the value of bottom - fishing was not high. In terms of operation, it was recommended to maintain the idea of shorting on rebounds, pay attention to light - position operation and timely profit - taking, and be cautious about bottom - fishing [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Egg Spot and Futures Price Data - **Price**: The average price of powder eggs was 2.71 yuan per jin, and that of red eggs was 2.86 yuan per jin this week, down 0.27 yuan (-9.0%) and 0.21 yuan (-6.7%) respectively from last week. The red - egg to powder - egg price difference was 0.15 yuan per jin, up 0.06 yuan (64.8%) from last week [2][4]. - **Basis**: The 10 - contract basis was - 482 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 238 yuan (-97.5%) from last week, and the 09 - contract basis was - 583 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 132 yuan (-29.3%) from last week [4]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread was - 175 yuan per 500 kilograms, up 60 yuan (52.2%) from last week, and the 9 - 10 spread was 101 yuan per 500 kilograms, down 106 yuan (-51.2%) from last week. It was recommended to gradually take profits on the previous reverse - spread combination [4]. 2. Egg Supply - Side Data - **Laying Situation**: In August, the laying level was expected to continue to increase as the chicks hatched in March (corresponding to laying in August) had both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the number of chicks replenished. The market remained in a situation where large - sized eggs were in short supply while small - sized eggs were in surplus [2]. - **Culling Situation**: The culling price of old hens was 5.60 yuan per jin, down 0.25 yuan (-4.27%) from last week. The culling volume was 13.71 million feathers, up 700,000 feathers (5.4%) from last week. The culling age was 506 days, down 1 day (-0.2%) from last week [2]. - **Inventory**: The in - production inventory was 1.356 billion feathers, up 0.016 billion feathers (1.2%) from last month, and the egg - laying rate was 90.15%, down 0.83 percentage points (-0.91%) from the previous half - month. The production inventory was 1.03 days, up 0.11 days (12.0%) from last week, and the circulation inventory was 1.19 days, up 0.15 days (14.4%) from last week [2]. - **Replenishment**: The price of laying - hen chicks was 3.29 yuan per chick, down 0.05 yuan (-1.5%) from last week. The utilization rate of hatching eggs was 68%, unchanged from last week. The monthly hatching volume of sample enterprises was 39.98 million feathers, down 770,000 feathers (-1.9%) from last month [2]. 3. Laying - Hen Breeding Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The feed cost of eggs was 2.74 yuan per jin, up 0.01 yuan (0.4%) from last week. The comprehensive cost of eggs was 3.20 yuan per jin, up 0.05 yuan (1.5%) from last week. The cost of raising a hen was 33.42 yuan per hen, up 0.09 yuan (0.3%) from last week [2]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive breeding profit was - 0.51 yuan per jin, down 0.36 yuan (-241.1%) from last week [2]. 4. Consumption - Side Data - **Sales Volume**: The sales volume of representative cities nationwide was 7,528.5 tons, down 368.6 tons (-4.7%) from last week. The shipment volume of sample production areas was 581.2 tons, down 14.76 tons (-2.5%) from last week [2]. - **Consumption Outlook**: High - temperature and high - humidity weather was unfavorable for consumption, and terminal market demand was average. Dealers and food processing enterprises were cautious about purchasing eggs. This year's Mid - Autumn Festival was late, so egg consumption was expected to be hard to improve effectively in the first and middle of August. However, it might gradually increase in late August as schools reopened and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking began [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - The average price in the main producing areas today is 3.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main selling areas is 3.43 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day. The national mainstream price is generally stable today [6] - In June, the national laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The monthly hatchling volume of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in June was 40.75 million, a month - on - month decrease of 9% and a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the estimated laying hen inventories from July to October 2025 are 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [7] - From July 25th, the national main producing area laying hen culling volume was 13.38 million, a decrease of 11% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in the week of July 24th was 506 days, an increase of 1 day from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the egg sales volume in national representative selling areas was 8032 tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.91 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.04 days, remaining unchanged from the previous week [7] - As of July 24th, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.03 yuan/jin, a recovery of 0.45 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 25th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 13.97 yuan/feather, an increase of 2.06 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - Today, the national culled hen price is stable, and the average price in the main producing areas is 5.77 yuan/jin, remaining unchanged from the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Trading Logic - The recent egg price has stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. After the plum - rain season, the price is expected to bottom out and gradually rise during the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival food factory stocking period. However, considering the current relatively loose production capacity, the increase may be limited [9] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the safety margin is high [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [10]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Egg Weekly Report: Inventory Declines, Egg Prices Stabilize [1] - Industry: Egg Industry - Researcher: Liu Qiannan - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F3013727 - Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0014425 Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Egg prices have stabilized after a decline, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom as the rainy season ends and food factories stock up before the Mid-Autumn Festival [16] Group 4: Content Summary by Section 4.1 Spot Analysis - This week, the average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.58 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from last Friday, and the average price in the main selling areas was 2.79 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from last Friday. Egg prices were under pressure due to high temperature, high humidity, school holidays, and an increase in newly laid eggs. However, after hitting a new low for the year, the decline may be limited, and some low-price areas saw a rebound at the end of the week. The price of old hens fluctuated strongly [5] 4.2 Supply Analysis - This week, the shipping volume in the producing areas decreased slightly month-on-month. From July 4 - 11, the national main producing areas' egg chicken culling volume was 16270000, a decrease of 5% from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 504 days, a decrease of 2 days from the previous week. In June, the national in-laying hen inventory was 1.34 billion, an increase of 60 million from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. The monthly egg chicken chick output of sample enterprises was 40.75 million, a month-on-month decrease of 9% and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the in-laying hen inventory from July to October 2025 is estimated to be 1.349 billion, 1.353 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.343 billion respectively [9] 4.3 Cost Analysis - As of July 11, the corn price was around 2421 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price was 2924 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2572 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.82 yuan/jin of egg feed cost. Corn and soybean meal prices decreased slightly this week, leading to a slight decrease in egg chicken breeding costs. Egg prices stabilized after a decline, but the average weekly egg price decreased month-on-month, so the loss of egg chicken breeding continued to expand. As of July 10, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was -0.68 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.1 yuan/jin from the previous week. On July 4, the expected profit of egg chicken breeding was 13.38 yuan/bird, a decrease of 0.46 yuan/jin from the previous week [12] 4.4 Demand Analysis - The sales volume in the selling areas increased first and then decreased this week, with a month-on-month decrease in the total sales volume. As of July 4, the sales volume of representative selling areas was 7606 tons, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The national egg market inventory decreased slightly month-on-month. As of July 4, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.05 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.17 days, a decrease of 0.1 days from the previous week. This week, the vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index changed little [15] 4.5 Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Recent egg prices have stabilized at the current level, and the spot price is expected to strengthen seasonally. The September contract is a peak-season contract, and prices are expected to rise after hitting bottom. - Unilateral: Consider building long positions in the September contract when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see. [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - month 07 contract of eggs is expected to maintain a weak performance due to the arrival of the off - season of egg consumption after May, but the downward space is limited. The far - month contracts may rise if the future chicken culling volume increases and improves the egg supply, especially the 8 and 9 - month contracts which are peak - season contracts. However, if the supply side is not significantly improved, the upward space is relatively limited [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: JD01 closed at 3628, up 19 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3398, up 1; JD09 closed at 3658, up 16. The 01 - 05 spread was 230, up 18; the 05 - 09 spread was - 260, down 15; the 09 - 01 spread was 30, down 3 [3]. - **Ratio of Egg to Feed**: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, up 0.01; the 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.20, up 0.02. Similar upward trends were seen in other contracts [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Egg Prices**: The average price in the main production areas was 2.81 yuan/jin, down 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 2.97 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. Most mainstream prices across the country declined [3][6]. - **Culled Chicken Prices**: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.6 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day [3][9]. 3.3 Fundamental Information - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In May, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - **Chick Hatchlings**: In May, the monthly hatchling volume of sample enterprises was 46.985 million, a 4% decrease from the previous month and a 1% increase year - on - year [7]. - **Culled Chicken Volume and Age**: From June 19 - 20, the national culled chicken volume was 19.68 million, a 4% decrease from the previous week, and the average culling age was 509 days, a 3 - day decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas was 7527 tons, an 8% decrease from the previous week [8]. - **Inventory Days**: As of the week of June 19, the average inventory days in the production and circulation links were 0.92 days and 1.04 days respectively, with decreases of 0.11 days and 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - **Profit**: As of June 19, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week, and on June 20, the expected profit of laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.4 Trading Logic - Near - month contracts are expected to be weak, and far - month contracts may rise if the supply side improves, but the upward space is limited if the supply is not significantly improved [9]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side**: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [10]. - **Options**: Wait and see [10].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Research Report - Egg Daily Report [2] - Date: June 23, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the futures market, the near - month 07 contract may maintain a weak performance due to the egg consumption entering the off - season after the rainy season in May, but the downward space is limited. For the far - month contracts, if the chicken culling volume increases in the future, the 8 and 9 - month contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not significantly improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Information - Egg prices: The average price in the main production areas is 2.87 yuan/jin, and in the main sales areas is 3 yuan/jin, both remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The national mainstream egg prices are mostly stable, and the egg prices continue to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [6]. - In - production laying hens: In May, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and 7.2% year - on - year. The estimated inventory from June to September 2025 is 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [7]. - Chicken culling: The egg - laying hen culling volume in the main production areas in the week of June 20 was 19.68 million, a decrease of 4% from the previous week. The average culling age on June 19 was 509 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week. The national culling chicken price rose, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.54 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.1 yuan from the previous trading day [7][9]. - Egg sales: As of the week of June 19, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7,527 tons, a decrease of 8% from the previous week [8]. - Inventory: As of the week of June 19, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.11 days from the previous week, and in the circulation link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week [8]. - Profit: As of June 19, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.55 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.08 yuan/jin from the previous week. On June 20, the expected profit of egg - laying hen farming was 14.6 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 2. Trading Logic - Near - month 07 contract: Due to the off - season demand after the rainy season, the price may be weak, but the downward space is limited. - Far - month contracts: If the chicken culling volume increases, the 8 and 9 - month contracts may rise, but the increase may be limited if the supply is not improved. One can consider building long positions in the 8 and 9 - month contracts when the safety margin is high [10]. 3. Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider building long positions in the far - month 8 and 9 - month contracts when the rainy season is about to end in mid - to - late June and the safety margin is high. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including egg spot prices in the main production and sales areas, egg - laying hen chick prices, culling chicken prices, egg feed costs, in - production laying hen inventory, futures spreads, and profit trends [13][16][17] etc.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg price showed a weak performance this week, with the average price in the main producing areas at 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas at 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The decline in egg prices has stimulated an increase in the willingness of some farmers to cull chickens, and the phenomenon of eggs entering cold storage has increased, slowing down the decline in egg prices [4]. - The supply of eggs is expected to remain high. In May, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. Without considering delayed culling and concentrated culling, the laying - hen inventory from June to September 2025 is expected to be around 1.339 billion, 1.347 billion, 1.351 billion, and 1.350 billion respectively [8]. - The cost of egg production decreased slightly this week. Although the feed cost increased slightly, the decline in soybean meal prices led to a decrease in the overall cost of egg production. However, due to the decline in egg prices, the egg - farming profit continued to be in the red [11]. - The demand for eggs weakened. After the "6.18" promotion ended, the sales volume in the selling areas decreased, and the market inventory increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory will continue to increase seasonally next week [14]. - In terms of trading strategies, the near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts (peak - season contracts) may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts [15]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Logical Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Spot Analysis** - The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.61 yuan/jin, down 0.22 yuan/jin from last Friday, and in the main selling areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. The low egg prices led to increased losses for farmers, accelerating the culling of old hens. The chicken -苗 market was in a mess, with the utilization rate of hatching eggs at about 70% - 80%, and the average price of young chickens was 16.89 yuan/head, remaining stable [4]. - **Supply Analysis** - The national laying - hen inventory in May was 1.334 billion, an increase of 0.11 billion from the previous month and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. The monthly output of chicken -苗 in sample enterprises in May was 46.985 million, a month - on - month decrease of 4% and a year - on - year increase of 1%. The culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas in the week of June 13 was 20.52 million, an increase of 2.8% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 512 days, a decrease of 3 days from the previous week [8]. - **Cost Analysis** - As of June 13, the corn price was around 2405 yuan/ton, the soybean meal price dropped to 2994 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive feed cost was about 2582 yuan/ton, equivalent to about 2.84 yuan/jin for eggs. The egg - farming profit continued to be in the red, with the average weekly profit per jin of fresh eggs at - 0.47 yuan/jin as of June 12, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous week, and the expected egg - farming profit on June 13 at 15.5 yuan/head, a decrease of 1.09 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - **Demand Analysis** - Affected by the "6.18" promotion, the market sales volume was okay at first, but then the sales volume in the selling areas decreased by 7.4% week - on - week. The national egg market inventory increased slightly, and it is expected to continue to increase seasonally next week. The vegetable price index rebounded, and the pork price index declined slightly [14]. - **Trading Strategy** - The near - month 07 futures contract is expected to remain weak, but the downward space is limited. If the culling volume of chickens continues to increase in the future, the 8 - and 9 - month futures contracts may rise. It is recommended to consider building long positions in the 8 - and 9 - month contracts in the second half of June when the rainy season is about to end and the safety margin is high, and adopt a strategy of shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - **Inventory (Zhuochuang)** - The data shows the historical and predicted data of the laying - hen inventory and chicken -苗 replenishment volume [8]. - **Culling Situation** - The data shows the historical data of the weekly culling volume of laying hens [8]. - **Egg - Farming Situation** - It includes the culling age of laying hens and the average price of chicken -苗 in the main producing areas [22]. - **Spread and Basis** - The data shows the historical data of the basis and spreads of different contracts, such as the 1 - month basis, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, etc. [24][25]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current egg in - production inventory has increased significantly year - on - year, with the supply side being relatively loose. The demand side is in the off - season, with general overall demand and a dominant market wait - and - see sentiment. However, recent macro risks have increased, and there is an expected rise in soybean meal prices. It is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: JD01 closed at 3747, up 2 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3117, down 13; JD09 closed at 3878, down 18. For spreads, 01 - 05 was 630, up 15; 05 - 09 was - 761, up 5; 09 - 01 was 131, down 20. Ratios like 01 egg/corn and 05 egg/bean粕 changed slightly [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price in the main production areas was 3.20 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas was 3.38 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin. The average price of culled chickens was 4.92 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [3][6]. 3.2 Fundamental Information - **Egg Price Trends**: The national mainstream egg prices continued to show a mixed trend of rises and stability. Prices in Beijing, Northeast China, Shanxi, and Hebei increased, while those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Anhui were stable [6]. - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: In March, the national in - production laying hens inventory was 1.318 billion, an increase of 0.012 billion from the previous month and a 6.8% year - on - year increase. It is estimated that the inventory from March to June 2025 will be approximately 1.321 billion, 1.324 billion, 1.329 billion, and 1.337 billion respectively [7]. - **Chicken Culling**: From April 4th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main production areas was 1889, a 5.4% increase from the previous week. The average culling age on April 3rd was 537 days, 1 day less than the previous week [7]. - **Egg Sales Volume**: As of April 3rd, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 9117 tons, a 5.9% decrease from the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: As of April 3rd, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.27 days, an increase of 0.01 days, and in the circulation link was 1.28 days, a decrease of 0.06 days [7]. - **Profit**: As of April 3rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.05 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.04 yuan/jin from the previous week. On April 4th, the expected profit per laying hen was 14.67 yuan/feather, a decrease of 4.56 yuan/jin from the previous week [8]. 3.3 Trading Logic The egg market has a relatively loose supply due to a large year - on - year increase in in - production inventory. The demand is in the off - season and general. With increasing macro risks and expected rising soybean meal prices, it is recommended to close out short positions in the 05 contract and wait and see [10]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see. - **Arbitrage**: Consider going long on the August contract and short on the September contract. - **Options Trading**: Wait and see [11].