昨日1月5日（星期一），黄金早盘高开延续上涨，到欧盘上涨至4440附近承压回落，美盘初下跌至4396企稳继续上涨，最高上涨4456附近，尾盘维持在高位 横盘震荡，日线收出一根阳线。 一、基本面 1、核心事件：美国突袭委内瑞拉引发地缘政治风暴 2026年1月3日，美国特种部队突袭委内瑞拉，逮捕总统马杜罗及其妻子，随后于1月5日将其押解至纽约联邦法院，面临毒品恐怖主义、可卡因进口共谋等重 罪指控；特朗普称行动旨在打击贩毒网络、开放委国石油资源，还警告不配合将扩大打击范围。 2025年黄金已因地缘热点与美联储宽松周期上涨64%；2026年市场普遍预计美联储至少降息两次，降低黄金持有机会成本，叠加美元指数回落、美国制造业 数据低迷强化宽松逻辑，且央行持续购金、ETF资金流入构筑长期支撑。 3、今日关注 21:00，2027年FOMC票委、里奇蒙联储主席巴尔金发表讲话；22:45，美国12月标普全球服务业PMI终值；待定，"科技春晚"2026年消费电子展（CES）将于 1月6-9日在拉斯维加斯举行。 二、技术面 1、日线级别：黄金上周一大幅下挫收阴后，后半周维持在4400下方震荡。受周末地缘政治因素提振，金价于周一强势 ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump expresses extreme dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, urging for interest rate cuts similar to the European Central Bank's approach, citing declining prices in the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: U.S. Economic Context - Trump's criticism of Fed Chair Powell, referring to him as "Mr. Too Late," suggests that the current stance on interest rates is detrimental to the U.S. economy [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is primarily influenced by economic data, including CPI, PCE, and unemployment rates, with rate cuts contingent on negative economic indicators [1] - Despite Trump's public discontent, Powell maintains that the Fed operates independently and is not swayed by political pressure [1] Group 2: Currency Market Dynamics - The dollar's fluctuations are significantly impacted by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, with short-term factors driving a rebound in the dollar index, which fell to a low of 100.88 [1] - Non-U.S. currencies, particularly the British pound, have rebounded in response to the dollar's weakness, with the pound reaching a high of 1.3314 [1][3] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The UK 3-month bond yield is at 4.32%, higher than the 6-month yield of 4.24%, indicating a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England in the next 3-6 months [5] - The U.S. 3-month bond yield stands at 4.39%, also suggesting a likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts within a similar timeframe [6] - The bond market's yield trends are viewed as more reliable indicators compared to the Fed's current stance, implying a sustained bearish outlook for the dollar and continued benefits for the pound [6]