Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a rebound, closing at $3347 after reaching an intraday high of $3349 [1] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with participants looking for clearer policy signals [1][2] - The recent FOMC minutes indicate that only two policymakers supported a rate cut in July, raising concerns that Powell may downplay the prospect of further cuts [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is in a high-level consolidation pattern, with a slight downward bias and key resistance at $3350-60 [2] - The market is at a critical turning point, suggesting that traders should remain patient and wait for clear directional signals before making significant moves [2] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $3350-3352 with a stop loss at $3360, targeting $3320-3300 [3] Group 3 - Key economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and various PMI readings scheduled for August 21 [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments, with caution advised ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision [1] - Gold prices fell to a low of $3301 during the trading session, closing at $3314, marking a fourth consecutive day of decline [1] - The decline in gold prices is influenced by a strong rebound in the US dollar index, improved global risk appetite, and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [1][2] Group 2 - Technically, gold showed weak rebounds around $3320 and $3345, indicating a bearish market structure [2] - The market is expected to continue adjusting, with key resistance levels at $3320-22 and $3345-50, while support is noted around $3300 [2] - The focus for the week is on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, suggesting a cautious approach for traders until after the event [2] Group 3 - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $3323-3322 with a stop loss at $3330 and a target of $3300-3280, with a potential reversal to long if $3300 holds [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are primarily driven by global geopolitical uncertainties, with a notable impact from U.S. tariff policies and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine [1][3]. Market Trends - Gold prices have shown a high level of volatility, with a peak of $3427 per ounce on June 5, followed by a decline to $3330.78 per ounce after the release of U.S. non-farm payroll data [1]. - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for May indicated an increase of 139,000 jobs, surpassing market expectations, which has led to a reduction in the anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. Investment Sentiment - Year-to-date, gold has appreciated by 25%, making it a preferred investment choice for many traders [3]. - Despite the positive long-term outlook for gold prices, short-term investment in June may not be advisable due to historically low average returns during this month [3]. Central Bank Activity - Global central banks are expected to continue their gold purchases, with a projected net purchase of 1045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year of purchases exceeding 1000 tons [4]. - Emerging market central banks are anticipated to be the primary drivers of gold demand, with their gold reserves expected to increase from 12% to 18% by 2027, translating to an additional demand of 700 tons per year [4]. Price Dynamics - Historical data indicates that the pace of gold price increases has accelerated, with significant jumps observed in shorter time frames [5].

Market Volatility - The gold market experienced significant fluctuations, with prices reaching a historical high of $3,500 before dropping sharply to $3,260, resulting in a weekly close at $3,316.26 [3] - Market sentiment is divided, with 54% of Wall Street institutions turning bearish and only 46% remaining bullish, while retail investors show 48% bullish and 29% bearish sentiment [3] Key Variables Influencing Market - Upcoming non-farm payroll data is critical; a cooling labor market could strengthen expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, benefiting gold [4] - Progress in trade negotiations may lead to risk assets being buoyed, potentially putting short-term pressure on gold [4] - Ongoing geopolitical risks, including U.S.-Russia-Ukraine talks and U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, continue to provide potential support for gold prices [4] Institutional Divergence - Bearish analysts warn that a drop below $3,300 could trigger a waterfall decline towards below $3,000, indicating a historical standoff between bulls and bears [6] - Bullish perspectives suggest that geopolitical risks could drive gold prices back to $3,500, with some analysts emphasizing the long-term upward trend of gold despite potential short-term corrections [6] Importance of Trading Platforms - The efficiency and risk management capabilities of trading platforms are crucial in volatile market conditions; Jinrong China has been recognized as "Best Asian Trading Platform" and "Best Trading Execution Broker" for its rapid order execution and intelligent risk control systems [7] - Such platforms can help investors respond quickly to extreme market movements, minimizing potential losses during sharp price fluctuations [7] Market Outlook - Short-term gold prices are expected to oscillate between $3,260 and $3,370, with non-farm data and trade agreements being pivotal for market direction [9] - Long-term support for gold remains strong due to central bank purchases, a weakening dollar credit system, and the normalization of geopolitical risks; investors are advised to diversify through low-premium gold bars and gold ETFs [9]