Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices experienced a narrow fluctuation, trading around $4,619 per ounce, after reaching a historical high of $4,634.33 per ounce before a quick pullback to close at approximately $4,586 [1] - The U.S. inflation data for December came in lower than expected, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's potential path for interest rate cuts, while the dollar index rebounded by 0.28% to 99.15, exerting pressure on gold prices [1][3] Market Sentiment - The market's interpretation of the inflation data was mixed, with experts suggesting that while lower inflation supports rate cuts, it also indicates signs of economic cooling, leading investors to reconsider the Fed's cautious approach [3] - The St. Louis Fed President emphasized that with inflation still above the 2% target, there is no justification for further rate cuts in the near term, cooling short-term rate cut expectations [3] Dollar Index Impact - The rebound of the dollar index was a key factor in gold's pullback, with the index rising 0.3% to 99.18, supported by strong employment data from the previous week [4] - A strong dollar increases the holding cost of gold priced in dollars, leading to a decline in gold prices from record highs, raising concerns about a potential peak in gold prices [4] Geopolitical Factors - Despite short-term signs of a peak in gold prices, ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to provide underlying support for gold, with concerns over U.S. investigations into the Fed's independence and trade tensions with Iran affecting global supply chains [5] - The geopolitical climate and uncertainty regarding the Fed's independence are seen as fundamental supports for gold, with some institutions raising their long-term price forecasts for gold [5] Technical Analysis - Current technical indicators suggest an upward price trend for gold, with support levels around $4,565 and a cautious trading approach recommended due to reduced market activity [8] - The MACD indicators show a bullish trend, but the market's energy is weakening, suggesting a need for careful trading strategies [8]

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on Thursday, with an opening price of $3,387.94 per ounce, a high of $3,413.50, a low of $3,384.54, and a closing price of $3,410.90 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. second-quarter real GDP annualized growth rate was revised to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.0% [2] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, but weak employment growth may push the August unemployment rate up to 4.3% [2] - Average import tariffs in the U.S. have reached the highest level in a century due to President Trump's protectionist trade policies, leading to a labor market situation characterized by "no hiring and no layoffs" [2] - The average monthly employment growth over the past three months was 35,000, significantly lower than the 123,000 in the same period of 2024 [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a possible interest rate cut in September to address rising labor market risks, while also emphasizing ongoing inflation threats [2] Real Estate Market - U.S. existing home sales contracts fell for the second consecutive month in July, with the pending home sales index declining by 0.4% to 71.7, close to the levels seen for most of the year [4] - Despite mortgage rates dropping to a four-month low of 6.67%, financing costs remain double what they were at the end of 2021 [4] - The National Association of Realtors' chief economist stated that unless mortgage rates continue to decline and prices adjust favorably, existing home sales are unlikely to exceed 4 million units this year [4] Geopolitical Situation - German Chancellor Merz stated that a meeting between Zelensky and Putin will not take place [5] - European leaders are considering establishing a 40-kilometer buffer zone between the Russia-Ukraine front lines as part of a peace agreement, although this may put pressure on limited peacekeeping forces [6] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 5.44 tons, bringing the total to 967.94 tons [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - According to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 13.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 86.2% [6]