1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term sentiment drives the market higher, but weakening demand limits the upside. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - On July 9, the black - series commodity futures stabilized overall, and coking coal and coke continued to rebound. The closing price of rebar was 3063 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the hot - rolled coil contract closed at 3190 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; iron ore closed at 736.5 yuan/ton; coking coal rose more than 3% [1] Market Analysis - Supply: After the mainstream mines finished their volume - boosting, shipments dropped sharply. From June 30 to July 6, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 362700 tons to 29.949 million tons, a decline of 11.5%. Shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreased, while those from non - mainstream regions increased slightly. Meanwhile, the previous shipments arrived at ports, and the arrival volume at 47 ports in China from June 30 to July 6 was 25.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.22 million tons. The port inventory increased slightly last week and is expected to continue to rise [1] - Demand: Demand slowed down, steel mills faced greater sales pressure, and some blast furnaces were approaching mid - year maintenance. The molten iron output stopped increasing and started to decline. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained stable at 59.31%, but the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 83.46%, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.54% to 90.29%. The daily average molten iron output this week dropped to 2.4085 million tons, the lowest since the end of April. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills increased slightly last week [1] Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory, and avoid chasing high prices [1] - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1] - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the post - decline stabilization and shock market or the strength relationship between the two [1]

-400 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 热卷--基差 -200 0 200 400 600 800 1000 日期 01-13 01-26 02-08 02-21 03-05 03-18 03-31 04-13 04-26 05-09 05-22 06-04 06-17 06-30 07-13 07-26 08-08 08-21 09-03 09-16 09-29 10-12 10-25 11-07 11-20 12-03 12-16 12-29 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 铁矿石--基差 | | 黑色产业数据每日监测（5.22） | | | --- | --- | --- | ...