黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 10 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨天螺纹盘面小幅回落，截止日盘螺纹 2601 合约收盘价格为 3106 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 27 元/吨，跌幅为 0.86%，持仓增加 0.09 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 窄幅整理 | | | 价格持平于 3000 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3180 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.02 万吨。 | | | | 据我的钢铁数据，本周全国螺纹产量环比回升 5.52 万吨至 212.59 万吨，同比减少 30.63 万吨；社库环比 | | | | 回落 6.68 万吨至 430.81 万吨，同比增加 148.24 万吨；厂库环比回落 12.92 万吨至 171.71 万吨，同比增加 | | | | 17.01 万吨；螺纹表需环比回升 6.19 万吨至 232.19 万吨，同比减少 8.49 万吨。螺纹产量继续回升，库存维 | | | | 持较大幅度降幅，表需回升，螺纹供需数据有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase. The production of building materials has slightly declined, inventory has continued to accumulate, and demand has been sluggish, putting pressure on prices. The high level of warehouse receipts also affects the futures market [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. Although the global iron ore shipment volume has increased, the iron - water production has decreased, and the inventory of ports and steel mills has also decreased, resulting in a situation of mixed long and short factors [1]. - The coking coal and coke markets are expected to be weak and volatile. For coking coal, domestic mines are affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand is cautious. For coke, although the profit of coking enterprises is acceptable and the subsequent start - up will increase, the steel mill's procurement rhythm has slowed down [1]. - The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets are expected to be volatile. For manganese - silicon, the supply is increasing, the steel - procurement price is decreasing, and the cost is stable. For silicon - iron, production is in a loss state, the steel - procurement price has decreased, and the cost is stable [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.32%. The spot price was stable or decreased, and the trading volume declined. The production of building materials decreased by 3.29 tons, the social inventory increased by 15.15 tons, the factory inventory increased by 4.5 tons, and the apparent demand increased by 1.4 tons. It is expected to be in a weak consolidation phase [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 777 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.7%. The port spot price was strong. The global shipment volume increased, the iron - water production decreased by 0.62 tons, and the inventory of ports and steel mills decreased. It is expected to be volatile [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1106 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.58%. The spot price decreased. Domestic mines were affected by production inspections and accidents, and downstream demand was cautious. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1594 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The spot price was stable. The coking coal price decreased, the profit of coking enterprises was acceptable, and the subsequent start - up will increase, but the steel mill's procurement rhythm slowed down. It is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Manganese - Silicon**: The manganese - silicon futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5732 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.28%. The market price was 5500 - 5800 yuan/ton. The supply was increasing, the steel - procurement price was decreasing, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [1][3]. - **Silicon - Iron**: The silicon - iron futures price was volatile and weak, with the main contract at 5520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43%. The market price was 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton. Production was in a loss state, the steel - procurement price decreased, and the cost was stable. It is expected to be volatile [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The spread data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month spreads, etc., and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Basis**: The basis data of various varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided, including the basis of different contracts and their changes compared with the previous period [4]. - **Spot**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profit data of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and the spread data of various varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) and their changes compared with the previous period are provided [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 are provided [6][7][10][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts of the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - period contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. are provided [26][31][32][33][36][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts of the spreads of inter - variety contracts such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc. are provided [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts of the profit of rebar (including disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) are provided [47][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current position is the assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [53]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current position is the director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute. He has rich honors in the field of coal futures [53]. - **Liu Xi**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [53]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current position is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [54].