黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 8 月 27 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面震荡下跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3113 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 25 元/吨，跌幅为 0.8%，持仓减少 3.96 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯 | 震荡偏弱 | | | 价格下跌 10 元/吨至 3040 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 30 元/吨至 3230 元/吨，全国建材成交量 | | | | 8.31 万吨。8 月以来螺纹现货市场供需持续弱化，供应增加需求低迷，库存持续逆季节性累积，上周螺纹 | | | | 库存增加 19.85 万吨，为连续第四周累积，目前螺纹库存总量为 607 万吨，同比下降 6.9%，而在 7 月中 | | | | 旬，螺纹库存同比大幅下降 31%。另外，目前螺纹交割库仓单已有 16.13 万吨，仓单量较大对盘面走势也 | | | | 有一定压制。预计短期螺纹盘面或震荡偏弱运行。 | | | 铁矿石 | | 震荡 | | | 昨日铁矿石期货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market rose slightly. The May steel market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose. With supply decreasing and demand and inventory showing mixed trends, it is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. Affected by supply, demand, and policy expectations, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. Due to environmental protection and demand factors, it is expected that the short - term coke futures will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price center may move up, but it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. With limited fundamental improvement, the short - term price increase is driven by market sentiment and should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.71%. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with real estate investment down 10.7%, infrastructure investment up 5.6%, and manufacturing investment up 8.5%. In May, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased or increased year - on - year, and the daily average production decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore i2509 contract was 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%. Port spot prices rose. In May, pig iron production decreased year - on - year. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 2.71%. Some coal mines stopped production, and the market procurement sentiment was weak. It is in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton or 1.59%. Environmental protection inspections were tightened, and coke enterprises' production enthusiasm declined. The blast furnace operating rate was stable, and the market had a downward expectation for future demand [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price rose by 2.35%. The real estate market had positive signals, but the fundamental support was weak, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price rose by 2.04%. The market sentiment improved, but the fundamental drive was limited, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: Data on the contract spreads of steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their month - on - month changes are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on the profits and spreads of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [27][29][31][34][36][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the main contract's coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread, rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].