Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past week, the trading volume of commodity options increased slightly, with only the trading volume of the precious metals sector decreasing. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle, and it is advisable to move short - option positions to far - month contracts in advance to avoid end - of - contract risks [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. Affected by the decline in iron ore futures prices, the implied volatility of black options has risen. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals. There is a lack of new macro - drivers, and the upward momentum of prices has been weakened. The implied volatility still has room to rise, and it is advisable to buy a bearish put spread portfolio to hedge against the downward market [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of commodity options increased slightly last week, with the precious metals sector being the only one with a decline in trading volume. Energy and chemical products such as short - fiber, PTA, methanol, glass, crude oil, caustic soda, soda ash, and bottle chips are about to expire on Wednesday. Most varieties are in a volatility - reduction cycle [4]. - The options of the black sector showed increased volatility and trading volume. The implied volatility of black options has risen due to the decline in iron ore futures prices. The previous policy - driven boost has basically been realized, and the market trading logic has returned to fundamentals [4]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The table shows the quantitative data of commodity options, including the flat - value volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile of various varieties such as corn, soybean meal, and crude oil [12]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.54 Option Data of Each Variety - For each variety (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the data includes the closing price, trading volume, open interest, trading volume PCR, open interest PCR, flat - value volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main contract, secondary - main contract, and all contracts [13][14][15] etc.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating weakly [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand data of steel has improved, with production rising, inventory decreasing significantly, and apparent demand rising. It is expected that the short - term steel futures market will operate in a narrow - range consolidation [1]. - For iron ore, supply is increasing, demand is weakening due to production restrictions and reduced iron - water output, and inventory is rising. Short - term ore prices show an oscillating and weakening trend [1]. - Coking coal supply is restricted, but market sentiment is positive. Demand is maintained, but some enterprises are cautious in purchasing. It is expected that the short - term coking coal futures market will operate in a wide - range oscillation [1]. - Coke supply is reduced due to cost and environmental factors, and demand is slightly reduced but still supported. Short - term coke futures are expected to oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon prices are slightly boosted by market sentiment. Although some regions may reduce production, overall production is difficult to decline significantly. Demand and cost provide some support, and inventory is accumulating. Short - term prices have some support but limited upward drive [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon production is slightly reduced, demand is not strongly boosted, cost provides support, and inventory is high. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of rebar 2601 contract was 3106 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous trading day, with an increase of 0.09 million lots in positions. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume decreased. This week, national rebar production increased by 5.52 tons week - on - week to 212.59 tons, social inventory decreased by 6.68 tons week - on - week to 430.81 tons, factory inventory decreased by 12.92 tons week - on - week to 171.71 tons, and apparent demand increased by 6.19 tons week - on - week to 232.19 tons [1]. - **Iron ore**: The closing price of the main iron ore futures contract i2601 was 802.5 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 330,000 lots and an increase of 9,000 lots in positions. Port spot prices of mainstream varieties declined. Australian shipments were stable, Brazilian shipments continued to increase, and global shipments increased. Iron - water production decreased by 3.54 tons week - on - week to 236.36 tons, and the blast - furnace operating rate decreased by 2.96%. The inventory of 47 ports increased by 163.44 tons week - on - week to 15,272.93 tons, and the number of ships at ports increased by 8 to 119. The inventory of imported ore in national steel mills decreased by 229 tons week - on - week to 8,850 tons [1]. - **Coking coal**: The closing price of coking coal 2601 contract was 1288 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton or 1.08% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 14,346 lots in positions. The price of lean coking coal in Shanxi Lvliang increased by 40 yuan/ton to 1270 yuan/ton, and the price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at Ganqimaodu Port increased by 30 yuan/ton to 1170 yuan/ton. The production of over - producing coal mines was still restricted, and the coke price was rising, driving positive market sentiment. The inventory of coal mines was low, and online auction prices mainly increased. Coke enterprises' raw - coal inventory was at a medium - low level, and the third round of price increase in the coke market started. However, some enterprises were resistant to high - price resources and purchased cautiously [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of coke 2601 contract was 1786.5 yuan/ton, down 14.5 yuan/ton or 0.81% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 747 lots in positions. The spot price of coke at ports increased. Due to high coking - coal prices, coke enterprises' profit margins were squeezed, and some enterprises reduced production. The inventory of coke enterprises was low. Environmental policies affected steel mills in many places, and the daily consumption of coke by steel mills decreased slightly, but the demand was still supported by relatively high iron - water production [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: On Thursday, the price of manganese silicon futures oscillated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract decreased by 2092 lots to 339,800 lots. The market price of manganese silicon in various regions was 5600 - 5750 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous day. The subsequent Yunnan dry season may lead to an increase in electricity prices and enterprise production cuts, but other regions have limited willingness to cut production. The steel - procurement price has slightly increased, and the cost is relatively stable, while inventory is accumulating [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Thursday, the price of ferrosilicon futures oscillated weakly, with the main contract closing at 5550 yuan/ton, down 0.47% from the previous day, and the positions of the main contract increased by 3552 lots to 166,200 lots. The aggregated price of ferrosilicon in various regions was about 5200 - 5250 yuan/ton, with prices in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increasing. A large ferrosilicon enterprise in Gansu reduced production, affecting daily output by about 300 - 310 tons. Weekly production decreased by 0.7% to 113,200 tons. Downstream steel - mill consumption was relatively low, and the demand for magnesium metal was okay. Cost provided support, and inventory was high [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads and basis**: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various varieties (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) are provided, along with their latest values and week - on - week changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month contract spread of rebar was - 53.0, up 10.0 week - on - week, and the basis of the 01 contract was 107.0, down 22.0 week - on - week [4]. - **Profit and price spreads**: Data on profit (such as rebar盘面利润, long - process profit, short - process profit) and price spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) are provided, along with their latest values and week - on - week changes. For example, the rebar盘面利润 was - 137.9, down 4.6 week - on - week, and the coil - rebar spread was 212.0, down 2.0 week - on - week [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon) from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - **Main contract basis**: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various black commodities from 2022 to 2026 [16][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period contract spreads**: Charts show the spreads of different - period contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) of various black commodities from 2021 to 2026 [25][27][32][33][35][37][39][41]. - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: Charts show the spreads between different varieties (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread) of main contracts from 2020 to 2025 [43][44][45][46]. - **Rebar profit**: Charts show the profit of rebar (main - contract盘面利润, long - process calculated profit, short - process calculated profit) from 2020 to 2025 [48][49][50][52]. 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng is the assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research. He has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry and has won many industry awards [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of resource - product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and has rich experience and many awards in the field of动力煤 [54]. - Liu Xi is a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie is a black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different sectors having their own characteristics and influencing factors. For example, in the financial derivatives market, the stock index tries to attack upward, while in the agricultural product market, different varieties have different price trends and supply - demand situations; in the black metal and non - ferrous metal markets, factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and geopolitical risks all have an impact on prices [5][7][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - On Thursday, the stock index first declined and then rose. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 3900 - point mark. The main stock index futures contracts all rebounded, and trading volume and open interest increased. The market is expected to try to attack upward after the positive news [20][21]. Financial Options - The stock market shows a mixed trend, and the trading volume of the market remains at around 1.6 trillion yuan. Most option varieties have a decreasing trading volume, and the implied volatility of most options remains volatile. Option sellers need to be cautious when building positions [23]. Treasury Bond Futures - On Thursday, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank's net withdrawal of short - term liquidity did not change the balanced and loose capital situation. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24][25]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The CBOT soybean index rose, but the international soybean market still faces pressure. Domestic soybean meal is affected by the macro - environment, and the supply pressure is expected to increase, with the price likely to fall. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct positive arbitrage for M11 - 1, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [27][28][29]. Sugar - The international sugar price is in a weak trend with the main contract breaking through the previous low. The domestic sugar price is relatively more resistant to decline in the short term. It is recommended to arrange short positions at high prices, short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar, and sell out - of - the - money call options [30][32]. Oilseeds and Oils - The short - term market lacks driving factors and is in a weak and volatile state. The Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, and the domestic soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different supply - demand situations. It is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [33][35]. Corn and Corn Starch - The US corn futures rebounded, but the domestic new grain supply is increasing, and the port and North China prices are falling. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the December contract, close long positions for the January contract, and wait for the dips to go long for the May and July contracts [36][38]. Live Hogs - The live hog market still has supply pressure, and the price is slightly falling. It is recommended to short a small amount, conduct reverse arbitrage for LH15, and sell a wide - straddle option strategy [39][40]. Peanuts - The peanut market is in a bottom - oscillating state. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. It is recommended to go long on the dips for the January and May contracts and sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - The egg inventory is slowly being depleted, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The supply of laying hens is at a high level, and the demand is average. It is recommended to close previous short positions and wait and see for other strategies [44][46]. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate of apples is poor, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, conduct long - November and short - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [48][50]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton purchase progress is accelerating, and the cotton price is mainly oscillating. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is in a general state during the peak season. It is recommended to go long on the dips, conduct short - November and long - January arbitrage, and wait and see for options [51][52][54]. Black Metals Steel - In the fourth quarter, there are insufficient construction projects, and steel prices are in a range - bound state. The steel demand is recovering, and the inventory is transferred from the factory to the social level. It is recommended to maintain the range - bound trading, go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar at low prices, and wait and see for options [57][58]. Coking Coal and Coke - The profitability of steel mills is poor, which restricts the upward space of coking coal and coke. The coking coal supply is affected by safety supervision, and the price is in a volatile state. It is recommended to be cautious about long positions, pay attention to the risk of decline, and wait and see for other strategies [59][60][61]. Iron Ore - A mid - term bearish view is taken. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the supply is increasing while the domestic demand is weakening. It is recommended to be bearish on the mid - term and wait and see for other strategies [62][63]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys follow the market to rebound. After the low - valuation repair, they can still be used as short - side configurations. The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese silicon is at a high level, and the demand has inventory pressure. It is recommended to wait for the low - valuation repair and then short, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [63][64]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks are fluctuating, and gold and silver prices have temporarily stabilized. The market is in a state of intense long - short game, and it is recommended to wait and see for all trading strategies [66][67]. Copper - The macro - sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on the dips. The copper supply is affected by disturbances, and the demand is in a general state. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips, continue to hold cross - market positive arbitrage, and wait and see for options [70][71]. Alumina - The supply side has marginal changes, and the price has a narrow - range rebound. The supply - demand surplus is becoming more obvious, and some producers may reduce production. It is recommended to go long on the short - term, and wait and see for other strategies [72][73][74]. Aluminum - The macro - sentiment and fundamentals resonate, and the medium - term upward trend of aluminum remains unchanged. Overseas aluminum production is expected to decrease, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [76][78][80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - sentiment is improving, and the aluminum alloy is in an upward - oscillating channel. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand has resilience. It is recommended to go long on the short - term and wait and see for other strategies [80][81][83]. Zinc - It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas inventory is low. The export window is open. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual export volume [84][86][87]. Lead - Pay attention to the impact of capital on the lead price. The supply is short - term tight, and the demand is improving. There may be a short - term squeeze on the near - month contract. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on the dips in the long term [88][89][90]. Nickel - The inventory accumulation reflects an oversupply, and the nickel price is under pressure. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short at the upper edge of the oscillation range and sell a wide - straddle option combination for the 2512 contract [91][92]. Stainless Steel - The continuous decline of warehouse receipts boosts the near - month contract. The production efficiency of stainless steel enterprises has improved, and project construction is accelerating [93].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including agriculture, black metals, non - ferrous metals, etc. Each market has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and corresponding trading strategies based on macro - environment, policy, and industry - specific factors [17][20][45]. Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Status**: The market is in a temporary stable phase, with soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuating. The international soybean market has large supply pressure, and domestic soybean meal may decline due to increased supply pressure [15][17]. - **Strategy**: Suggested to wait and see; M11 - 1 positive spread; sell call options on soybean meal [17]. Sugar - **Market Status**: Brazilian sugar prices are falling, and the overall trend of sugar is weak. The international raw sugar fundamentals are weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to follow the international market [20]. - **Strategy**: Short - term rebound after a sharp decline, suggest short - selling at high prices; short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; sell out - of - the - money call options [21]. Oilseeds and Oils - **Market Status**: The market lacks short - term drivers and fluctuates weakly. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil has marginal inventory reduction [22][23]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see, consider light - position long when there is a significant correction [24]. Corn/Corn Starch - **Market Status**: New grain supply is increasing, and the market is fluctuating weakly. US corn may fluctuate narrowly, and domestic corn has a short - term decline space [25][27]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long for 12 - contract corn on dips; close 01 - contract long positions; wait for dips to buy 05 and 07 - contract corn [27]. Live Pigs - **Market Status**: Supply pressure persists, and the rebound is blocked. The overall pig inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains [28]. - **Strategy**: Try short - selling in small quantities; LH15 reverse spread; sell call options [29]. Peanuts - **Market Status**: Peanut oil mills have not started large - scale purchases, and peanuts are oscillating at the bottom. The new - season peanuts are strong in some areas, and the market is stable [32][33]. - **Strategy**: Buy 01 and 05 - contract peanuts on dips; sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [33]. Eggs - **Market Status**: Inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are fluctuating weakly. The laying - hen inventory is high, and the demand is average [34][36]. - **Strategy**: Close previous short positions; wait and see for spreads and options [37]. Apples - **Market Status**: The high - quality fruit rate is low, and apple prices are strong. Some areas have small - sized apples and water - crack problems, and the cost of futures warehouse receipts is high [38][39]. - **Strategy**: Long 11 - contract and short 1 - contract apples; wait and see for options [40]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **Market Status**: New cotton purchase is accelerating, and cotton prices are fluctuating. Xinjiang cotton has a high yield, and the demand in the peak season is not strong [41][43]. - **Strategy**: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger; short 11 - contract and long 1 - contract cotton; wait and see for options [43]. Black Metals Steel - **Market Status**: Driven by raw materials, steel prices rise, but there is still upward pressure. Construction steel trading volume is improving, but there are inventory and demand problems [45]. - **Strategy**: Maintain range - bound trading; long the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar; wait and see for options [46]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Status**: Supply is disrupted, and prices are supported. Coal mine production is affected by safety and environmental factors, but steel mill demand is not strong [47][48]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, but be cautious about the upward space; wait and see for spreads and options [48]. Iron Ore - **Market Status**: Take a bearish view in the medium - term. Global iron ore supply has increased, and domestic demand may weaken [50][53]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [52][53]. Ferroalloys - **Market Status**: Low - valuation - driven rebound, but the sustainability is limited. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have high supply and weak demand [55]. - **Strategy**: Continue range - bound trading; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [56]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - **Market Status**: Intense long - short competition, and gold and silver are in adjustment. The market is affected by geopolitical and macro - economic factors [58][61]. - **Strategy**: Enter an adjustment phase in the short - term; wait and see for spreads and options [61]. Copper - **Market Status**: Short - term consolidation, long - term trend unchanged. The macro - environment and supply - demand situation affect copper prices [62]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips, hold long - short positions across markets; wait and see for options [63]. Alumina - **Market Status**: Supply is changing, and prices are bottom - grinding. The market has an oversupply situation, and some producers are reducing production [66][70]. - **Strategy**: Bottom - grinding in the short - term, may rebound if production reduction expands; wait and see for spreads and options [70]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Status**: The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, driven by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The inventory is decreasing, and the production of some overseas plants is affected [70][71]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [74]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Status**: The price is expected to be strong, with improved macro - sentiment and cost support. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand has resilience [75][80]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the medium - term; wait and see for spreads and options [80]. Zinc - **Market Status**: Suggest waiting and seeing. The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has low inventory and high concentration of near - month contracts [81]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see for all strategies [82]. Lead - **Market Status**: Supply is gradually recovering, and prices may fall. With the resumption of production, the supply of lead ingots may increase [86]. - **Strategy**: Hold previous short positions, add short at high prices; wait and see for spreads and options [86]. Nickel - **Market Status**: Inventory accumulation indicates oversupply, and prices are under pressure. The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and demand is weak [89]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell at the upper edge of the shock range; wait and see for spreads; sell 2512 - contract wide - straddle options [90]. Stainless Steel - **Market Status**: The decline in warehouse receipts boosts near - month contracts. The price is lower than the cost, and demand restricts the increase [91]. - **Strategy**: Bullish in the short - term; long ss2512 and short ss2602 [93]. Other Commodities Industrial Silicon - **Market Status**: Narrow - range fluctuation in the short - term. The demand for polysilicon will decrease in November, and there is short - term oversupply [94]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a full correction; no strategy for spreads and options [94]. Polysilicon - **Market Status**: Buy on dips near the previous support level. The supply - demand balance will improve in November, and the short - term decline space is limited [95]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips; exit the previous rebound strategy; adjust the double - buying option strategy [95][97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Status**: Supported by demand and supply risks, prices are rising. The domestic lithium ore is tightening, and the processing fee is decreasing [98]. - **Strategy**: Bullish; wait and see for spreads; sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. Tin - **Market Status**: The macro - sentiment cools down, and prices fluctuate around the integer level. The market has a wait - and - see attitude, and demand growth is slow [100]. - **Strategy**: Not provided in the text.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodities, including their current market conditions, influencing factors, and trading strategies. It assesses the supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic impacts, and geopolitical events affecting each commodity. Overall, different commodities are expected to have diverse price trends, with some facing downward pressure due to supply surpluses or weakening demand, while others may experience upward movement supported by demand or supply - side constraints. Summary by Commodity Categories Agricultural Products 1. Soybean Meal - The supply pressure of international soybeans remains high, and domestic soybean meal is also expected to decline due to increased supply pressure. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis, conduct M11 - 1 positive spreads for arbitrage, and sell call options [17]. 2. Sugar - International sugar prices are in a weak trend with the downward - opened space after breaking the previous low. Domestic sugar is expected to follow the external market. The strategy is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and conduct short ICE US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar for arbitrage [21]. 3. Oilseeds and Oils - The palm oil market may see a slight inventory build - up in October. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil may continue to reduce inventory marginally. The recommendation is to wait and see on a single - side basis and consider going long on dips [25]. 4. Corn/Corn Starch - The US corn may continue to narrow - range fluctuate in the short - term. Domestic new - crop corn supply is increasing, and the spot price has a downward space. The suggestion is to go long on dips for the 12 - contract US corn, hold long positions for the 01 - contract domestic corn, and wait for dips to go long for the 05 and 07 contracts [29]. 5. Live Pigs - The slaughter pressure has improved, and the spot price has a phased rebound. However, the overall supply pressure still exists. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle options [31]. 6. Peanuts - Peanut production may be affected by rainfall, and the 01 - contract peanut may fluctuate strongly in the short - term but overall remains at the bottom. The recommendation is to go long on dips for the 01 and 05 contracts and sell pk601 - P - 7600 options [34]. 7. Eggs - The inventory reduction is slow, and egg prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The suggestion is to short at high prices on a single - side basis and close out previous short positions to take profits [39]. 8. Apples - The high - quality fruit rate is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger. The strategy is to go long on a single - side basis, conduct long November and short January for arbitrage [42]. 9. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - The new cotton acquisition is accelerating. The market may face selling - hedging pressure with the large - scale listing of new cotton. The demand improvement is limited. The recommendation is that the US cotton may fluctuate, and domestic cotton may fluctuate slightly stronger. Hold cross - market positive spreads and consider cross - period positive spreads after domestic inventory decline [46]. Ferrous Metals 1. Steel - The demand pressure persists, but the steel price has a lower valuation and some support. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The suggestion is to maintain the range - bound strategy on a single - side basis and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at low prices for arbitrage [49]. 2. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply is tight, but the steel mill demand is not strong. It is expected to fluctuate within a range. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [52]. 3. Iron Ore - The market expectation is weak, and the fundamentals have changed. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased. It is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - term on a single - side basis [54]. 4. Ferroalloys - The steel procurement for ferroalloys is weak. Both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [58]. Non - Ferrous Metals 1. Precious Metals - Due to the loosening of previous positive factors, gold and silver prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [62]. 2. Copper - The macro - environment has changed, and the supply - side disturbances have increased. The consumption is average but has some resilience. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis and hold cross - market positive spreads [64]. 3. Alumina - The supply - side is showing marginal changes, and the price is expected to grind at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the supply - side changes on a single - side basis [69]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - The macro - factors are the main drivers. The consumption has some resilience. The suggestion is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [75]. 5. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The macro - panic has improved, and the cost is supported. The price is expected to be strong. The recommendation is to go long on dips on a single - side basis [80]. 6. Zinc - The domestic supply is increasing, and the overseas market has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [83]. 7. Lead - The supply is gradually recovering, and the price may decline. The suggestion is to hold previous short positions and add short positions at high prices [89]. 8. Nickel - The inventory is increasing, indicating an oversupply. The price is under pressure. The recommendation is to short at the upper limit of the shock range on a single - side basis and sell wide - straddle option combinations [90]. 9. Stainless Steel - The demand is weak, and the price is testing the cost support. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. The strategy is to wait and see on a single - side basis [94]. Other Commodities 1. Industrial Silicon - The demand from polysilicon may decline in November, and the price is under short - term pressure. It is recommended to wait for sufficient dips on a single - side basis [95]. 2. Polysilicon - The supply - demand balance will improve in November. It is recommended to buy at dips on a single - side basis, hold reverse spreads for the 2511 and 2512 contracts, and adjust the option strategy [98]. 3. Lithium Carbonate - The demand is strong, and the supply has risks. The price is expected to strengthen. The suggestion is to go long on a single - side basis and sell out - of - the - money put options [99]. 4. Tin - The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the price is consolidating around the integer level. The market is cautious, and the demand recovery is not good [103]. 5. Shipping - The spot price of container shipping continues to rise, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US negotiations [12]. 6. Energy and Chemicals - Different energy and chemical products have various trends. For example, crude oil is temporarily stable, while some products like PX & PTA and ethylene glycol face supply - demand changes and price fluctuations. Specific trading strategies are provided for each product based on their supply - demand and market conditions [14].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: Fluctuation [1] - Coking Coal: Fluctuation [1] - Coke: Fluctuation [1] - Manganese Silicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Weak - side fluctuation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on October 10, 2025. It comprehensively considers factors such as supply, demand, price changes, and inventory levels of each commodity, and provides corresponding short - term trend forecasts for them [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: After the holiday, the steel rebar futures market was volatile and slightly stronger. Spot prices rose slightly, and trading volume increased. However, there was a significant inventory build - up during the holiday, and the inventory digestion pressure after the holiday was still large. Although the market had strong expectations for macro - policies and the price was at a low level, the short - term industry supply - demand situation still put pressure on prices, so it was expected to move in a narrow - range [1] - **Iron Ore**: The price of the main iron ore futures contract rose after the holiday. The supply side showed a decline in shipments, and the demand side had a slight decrease in molten iron production. With high demand supporting the price and multiple factors in a multi - empty situation, the ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose. On the supply side, coal mine safety inspections might be tightened after an accident. On the demand side, coke enterprises slowed down their raw coal purchases after the profit recovery. It was expected that the coking coal futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose. After the first round of price increases, the supply side was stable. On the demand side, steel mills' inventory decreased, and the finished product shipments were average, suppressing the replenishment demand. It was expected that the coke futures market would fluctuate widely in the short term [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly. The cost support was relatively strong, but the supply was at a relatively high level, and the short - term fundamental upward driving force was limited. It was necessary to pay attention to the change of market sentiment [3] - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The cost support weakened, and the supply was at a relatively high level. The demand side was about to start a new round of steel tenders, and the price center of tenders was expected to move down slightly. It was expected to run weakly and fluctuate in the short term [3] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: For various commodities such as steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, the report provided the latest values and month - on - month changes of contract spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months, etc.) [4] - **Basis**: It presented the latest values and month - on - month changes of the basis of the main contracts of various commodities and the latest values and month - on - month changes of spot prices in different regions [4] - **Profit and Spread**: Information on the latest values and month - on - month changes of profit (such as steel rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and inter - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) was provided [4] 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: It showed the closing price trends of the main contracts of steel rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through figures [6][7][10][15] - **Main Contract Basis**: The basis trends of the main contracts of various commodities from 2022 - 2026 were presented through figures [17][19][23][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - period contract spreads of various commodities (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05, 05 - 09) were shown through figures [27][32][33][37][39] - **Inter - commodity Contract Spread**: The trends of inter - commodity spreads of various main contracts (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, etc.) from 2020 to 2025 were presented through figures [43][45][47] - **Steel Rebar Profit**: The trends of disk profit, long - process calculated profit, and short - process calculated profit of the steel rebar main contract from 2020 to 2025 were shown through figures [48][52] 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduced the information of the black research team members of Everbright Futures, including their positions, work experience, honors, and relevant qualification numbers [54][55]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillating weakly [1] - Iron ore: Oscillating [1] - Coking coal: Oscillating [1] - Coke: Oscillating [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The black commodity market is generally volatile. Different varieties are affected by various factors such as supply - demand relationships, production restrictions, and market sentiment, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar futures price declined, with the 2510 contract closing at 3113 yuan/ton, down 0.8%. Spot prices also dropped slightly, and the inventory has been accumulating counter - seasonally since August. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract i2601 price fell to 776.5 yuan/ton, down 1.33%. Global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, while iron - water production increased. With multiple factors at play, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1160.5 yuan/ton, down 4.52%. The supply is affected by frequent disturbances, and the demand is slightly weakened due to the approaching parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Coke**: The 2601 contract of coke closed at 1681 yuan/ton, down 3.17%. Coke enterprises initiated the eighth round of price increases, and the production is affected by environmental protection during the parade. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The price of the main contract oscillated weakly, closing at 5862 yuan/ton, down 0.37%. The production is increasing, while the demand is stimulated limitedly. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The price of the main contract declined slightly to 5656 yuan/ton, down 0.56%. The supply is increasing, and the demand is affected by downstream production. It is expected to follow the overall black market fluctuations in the short term [1]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract spreads**: Different varieties have different contract spreads and their changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 72.0 with a 14.0 change [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also shows different values and changes, like the 10 - contract basis of rebar being 187.0 with a 15.0 change [4]. - **Spot prices**: Spot prices of different varieties in different regions have different trends, for example, the Shanghai rebar price dropped by 10 yuan/ton [4]. - **Profits and spreads**: There are also data on profits and spreads between different varieties, such as the rebar disk profit being - 51.7 with a 19.8 change [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main contract prices**: There are historical price trend charts of the main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 - 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [7][9][13] - **Main contract basis**: The charts show the historical basis trends of various black commodities, helping to understand the price differences between futures and spot [19][20] - **Inter - period contract spreads**: The charts display the historical spreads between different contracts of various black commodities, which is useful for analyzing price relationships between different periods [28][30] - **Inter - variety contract spreads**: The charts show the historical spreads between different varieties of black commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [43] - **Rebar profits**: There are charts showing the historical profits of rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit [48][52] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and expertise in the black commodity research field [54][55]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Oscillatory consolidation [1] - Iron ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking coal: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Coke: Wide-range oscillation [1] - Manganese silicon: Oscillation [3] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures price dropped significantly, with inventory increasing and supply-demand pressure intensifying. The sharp drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment, and the short-term rebar futures may oscillate [1]. - Iron ore: The futures price declined, with an increase in global shipments and a decrease in iron ore output. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level in the short term [1]. - Coking coal: The futures price fell, and the spot market was weak. With the fourth round of price increases for coke basically implemented, the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Coke: The futures price dropped, and the fourth round of price increases was basically implemented. After the price increase, the exchange took cooling measures, and some participants showed fear of high prices. The short-term futures may oscillate widely [1]. - Manganese silicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot price decreased. The supply-demand outlook improved, and the cost was expected to rise. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the end-of-month meeting [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The futures price weakened, and the spot was tight. Production enthusiasm increased, and the supply-demand situation improved marginally. The short-term futures may oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to the meeting results [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2510 contract closed at 3248 yuan/ton, down 108 yuan/ton or 3.22%. The spot price and trading volume decreased, and inventory increased. The profit from producing rebar was better, and the supply-demand pressure would increase. The drop in coking coal futures affected market sentiment [1]. - **Iron ore**: The i2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/ton, down 16.5 yuan/ton or 2%. The spot price decreased, and global shipments increased. Iron ore output decreased, and inventory increased. Affected by macro sentiment, the ore price may oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Coking coal**: The 2509 contract closed at 1100.5 yuan/ton, down 158.5 yuan/ton or 12.59%. The spot price decreased, and some traders sold at lower prices. The fourth round of price increases for coke was implemented, and the demand for coking coal was stable. The exchange's measures may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Coke**: The 2509 contract closed at 1608.5 yuan/ton, down 154.5 yuan/ton or 8.76%. The spot price decreased, and the fourth round of price increases was implemented. The steel mills' profit was high, but the exchange's measures and participants' fear of high prices may lead to wide-range oscillations [1]. - **Manganese silicon**: The futures price closed at 6028 yuan/ton, down 2.96%. The spot price decreased, and the supply-demand outlook improved. The cost was expected to rise, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The futures price closed at 5840 yuan/ton, down 2.44%. The spot was tight, and production enthusiasm increased. The supply-demand situation improved marginally, and the short-term futures may oscillate widely [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Rebar**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -41.0, up 2.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -22.0, down -3.0. The 10 - contract basis was 142.0, up 68.0; the 01 - contract basis was 101.0, up 70.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The 10 - 1 month contract spread was -12.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -10.0, down -6.0. The 10 - contract basis was 43.0, up 50.0; the 01 - contract basis was 31.0, up 49.0. The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased [4]. - **Iron ore**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was 29.0, down -1.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was 19.0, down -1.5. The 09 - contract basis was 31.0, up 4.4; the 01 - contract basis was 60.0, up 3.4. The spot prices of PB powder and super - special powder decreased [4]. - **Coke**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -42.0, up 6.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -26.5, up 7.5. The 09 - contract basis was -51.8, up 121.9; the 01 - contract basis was -93.8, up 127.9. The spot price in Rizhao decreased [4]. - **Coking coal**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -79.5, down -20.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -4.5, down -13.5. The 09 - contract basis was -62.5, up 158.5; the 01 - contract basis was -142.0, up 138.5. The spot price of Shanxi medium - sulfur coking coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Manganese silicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -74.0, down -10.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -28.0, down -12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -328.0, up 386.0; the 01 - contract basis was -402.0, up 376.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia changed [4]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The 9 - 1 month contract spread was -108.0, up 12.0; the 1 - 5 month spread was -42.0, up 12.0. The 09 - contract basis was -240.0, up 326.0; the 01 - contract basis was -348.0, up 338.0. The spot prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged [4]. - **Profit and spread**: The rebar's disk profit was 103.9, down -3.5; the long - process profit was 231.0, down -18.5; the short - process profit was 76.3, down -96.9. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 149.0, down -2.0; the ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.1, down -0.05; the ratio of coking coal to iron ore was 1.5, up 0.06 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **3.1 Main contract price**: The report presents the price trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 through charts [6][8][10][11][14][15] - **3.2 Main contract basis**: The report shows the basis trends of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [17][18][21][23] - **3.3 Inter - period contract spread**: The report displays the spread trends of inter - period contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon through charts [25][30][31][33][34][37] - **3.4 Inter - variety contract spread**: The report shows the spread and ratio trends of inter - variety contracts such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of coking coal to iron ore through charts [39][40][41][43] - **3.5 Rebar profit**: The report presents the profit trends of rebar's main contract, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, through charts [44][45][47] 4. Black Research Team Members Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current assistant director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and director of black research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many awards [49] - Zhang Xiaojin: Current director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many awards [49] - Liu Xi: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [49] - Zhang Chunjie: Current black researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures market rose slightly. The May steel market was in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the short - term rebar futures will mainly operate in a low - level consolidation [1]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price rose. With supply decreasing and demand and inventory showing mixed trends, it is expected that the iron ore futures price will show a narrow - range oscillation [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose. Affected by supply, demand, and policy expectations, it is expected that the short - term coking coal futures will oscillate [1]. - Coke: The coke futures price rose. Due to environmental protection and demand factors, it is expected that the short - term coke futures will oscillate [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price strengthened. Driven by short - term market sentiment, the price center may move up, but it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price strengthened. With limited fundamental improvement, the short - term price increase is driven by market sentiment and should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The closing price of the rebar 2510 contract was 2990 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.71%. The spot price rose slightly, and the trading volume increased. From January to May, national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, with real estate investment down 10.7%, infrastructure investment up 5.6%, and manufacturing investment up 8.5%. In May, the production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel decreased or increased year - on - year, and the daily average production decreased month - on - month [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The closing price of the iron ore i2509 contract was 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton or 0.2%. Port spot prices rose. In May, pig iron production decreased year - on - year. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and inventory increased [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the coking coal 2509 contract was 795.5 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 2.71%. Some coal mines stopped production, and the market procurement sentiment was weak. It is in the seasonal demand off - season [1]. - **Coke**: The closing price of the coke 2509 contract was 1371 yuan/ton, up 21.5 yuan/ton or 1.59%. Environmental protection inspections were tightened, and coke enterprises' production enthusiasm declined. The blast furnace operating rate was stable, and the market had a downward expectation for future demand [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price rose by 2.35%. The real estate market had positive signals, but the fundamental support was weak, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price rose by 2.04%. The market sentiment improved, but the fundamental drive was limited, and it should be treated as a rebound [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: Data on the contract spreads of steel, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Basis**: Data on the basis of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. - **Spot Price**: The latest spot prices of various varieties in different regions and their month - on - month changes are provided [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on the profits and spreads of various varieties are provided, including the latest values and their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the basis of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [19][20][23][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [27][29][31][34][36][37][39]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the inter - variety contract spreads of main contracts, including the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, the ratio of rebar to coke, the ratio of coke to iron ore, the ratio of coking coal to coke, and the spread between manganese silicon and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the main contract's coal - coke ratio, double - silicon spread, rebar's main contract's disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 to 2025 [46][47][50]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With rich experience in the field of resource products [52]. - Liu Xi: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. Good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute. With experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].