Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The end of the US federal government shutdown boosts optimistic sentiment and the copper market. With short - term macro potential negatives temporarily fading, copper prices are expected to be strong. Attention should be paid to the release of US economic data and the situation of the December interest - rate cut game [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened high and moved low, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The US government ended the shutdown, and the long - term order negotiation in the supply side has uncertainties. In November, 5 smelters are expected to have maintenance, affecting 48,000 tons of production. The demand peak season is weaker than previous years, and the downstream demand is still weak. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has been increasing since the end of October [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened high and moved low, with strong intraday oscillation. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is 5 yuan/ton. On November 12, 2025, the LME official price was 10,853 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 20 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of November 10, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 41.9 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.00 US cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 44,000 tons, an increase of 64 tons from the previous period. As of November 10, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 102,400 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 136,300 tons, a decrease of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 378,300 short tons, an increase of 4,327 short tons from the previous period [11]

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]