Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].

Group 1 - LME copper prices have declined by 0.62% to $13,095 per ton, while Shanghai Futures Exchange's most active copper contract rose by 0.09% to 101,600 yuan per ton [1] - The increase in inventories and weak demand continue to pressure copper prices, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10 [1] - The upcoming Chinese New Year holiday, starting February 15, is expected to further impact demand as buyers complete pre-holiday restocking [1] Group 2 - Yangshan copper premium has increased from $20 per ton to $38 per ton, but remains low compared to over $50 per ton at the end of December, indicating weak demand [2] - Other base metals on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed mixed performance, with tin rising by 3.42% and aluminum, zinc, and nickel declining [2] - LME's three-month tin prices remained stable, while aluminum, zinc, and nickel prices decreased by 0.72%, 0.34%, and 1% respectively, with lead prices increasing by 0.20% [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report [1][2] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] Group 2: Core Views - The low TC of copper concentrates and tightness at the mine end, along with some smelting maintenance, support prices from the raw material side [4] - New energy demand continues, providing structural demand support and offsetting the traditional off - season [4] - Traditional downstream demand weakens from the peak season. High prices make buyers cautious, with weak transactions in construction and home appliance sectors and low restocking willingness [4] - Hawkish remarks from the Fed suppress rate - cut expectations, strengthening the US dollar and weakening the upward financial - attribute drive for copper prices [4] - There is co - existence of tightness at the mine end and weak traditional demand. Inventory and basis fluctuations are limited, and prices mainly fluctuate within a range [5] Group 3: Copper Futures Data (Weekly) - The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 85,660 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43%, a position of 190,218, and a weekly position decline of 2,075. The trading volume is 98,905 [6] - The latest price of SHFE Copper Index - weighted is 85,634 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.43%, a position of 523,117, and a weekly position decline of 38,538. The trading volume is 177,960 [6] - The latest price of International Copper is 76,320 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.34%, a position of 3,329, and a weekly position decline of 684. The trading volume is 3,931 [6] - The latest price of LME Copper 3 - month is $10,686, with a weekly decline of 1.59%, a position of 239,014, and a weekly position decline of 38,282. The trading volume is 18,624 [6] - The latest price of COMEX Copper is $495.35, with a weekly decline of 2.06%, a position of 69,028, and a weekly position decline of 39,283. The trading volume is 48,117 [6] Group 4: Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 85,815 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,280 yuan and a decline rate of 1.47% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Material Trading is 85,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,205 yuan and a decline rate of 1.38% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Reserve is 85,900 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,160 yuan and a decline rate of 1.33% [11] - The latest price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 85,980 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,220 yuan and a decline rate of 1.4% [11] - The latest Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is 90 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and an increase rate of 63.64% [11] - The latest Shanghai Material Trading premium/discount is 60 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and an increase rate of 140% [11] - The latest Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 85 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 35 yuan and an increase rate of 70% [11] - The latest Yangtze River Non - ferrous premium/discount is 105 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 50 yuan and an increase rate of 90.91% [11] - The latest LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium/discount is -$18.89/ton, with a weekly decline of $12.93 and a decline rate of 216.95% [11] - The latest LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium/discount is $117.68/ton, with a weekly decline of $5.65 and a decline rate of - 4.58% [11] Group 5: Advanced Copper Data (Weekly) - The copper import profit and loss is - 488.26 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 338.52 yuan and a decline rate of - 40.94% [12] - The copper concentrate TC is - 41.72 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.2 dollars and an increase rate of 0.48% [12] - The copper - to - aluminum ratio is 4.007, with a weekly increase of 0.0229 and an increase rate of 0.57% [12] - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,065.74 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 657.24 yuan and a decline rate of - 17.65% [12] Group 6: Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total SHFE copper warehouse receipts are 49,790 tons, with a weekly decline of 40 tons and a decline rate of - 0.08% [18] - The total International Copper warehouse receipts are 6,202 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,131 tons and a decline rate of - 53.48% [18] - The SHFE copper inventory is 110,603 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,196 tons and an increase rate of 1.09% [18] - The LME copper registered warehouse receipts are 148,450 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,400 tons and an increase rate of 17.77% [18] - The LME copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 9,475 tons, with a weekly decline of 650 tons and a decline rate of - 6.42% [20] - The LME copper inventory is 157,925 tons, with a weekly increase of 21,750 tons and an increase rate of 15.97% [20] - The COMEX copper registered warehouse receipts are 176,701 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,804 tons and an increase rate of 5.87% [20] - The COMEX copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 221,812 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,270 tons and an increase rate of 4.36% [20] - The COMEX copper inventory is 398,513 tons, with a weekly increase of 19,074 tons and an increase rate of 5.03% [20] - The copper mine port inventory is 530,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 32,000 tons and an increase rate of 6.43% [20] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and an increase rate of 1.04% [20] Group 7: Copper Mid - stream Production (Monthly) - In September 2025, the refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. The cumulative output was 12.295 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [24] - In September 2025, the copper product output was 2.232 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [24] Group 8: Copper Mid - stream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 56.2%, with a monthly decline of 9.03 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 5.35 percentage points [26] - In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 24.11%, with a monthly decline of 1.26 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 1.69 percentage points [26] - In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 63.84%, with a monthly decline of 2.4 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 8.4 percentage points [26] - In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper rods was 50.13%, with a monthly decline of 0.77 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.1 percentage point [26] - In October 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 52.57%, with a monthly decline of 6.87 percentage points and a year - on - year decline of 15.63 percentage points [26] Group 9: Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In October 2025, the copper concentrate imports were 2.451487 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6%. The cumulative imports were 25.118228 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% [30] - In October 2025, the anode copper imports were 55,239 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 8%. The cumulative imports were 634,011 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 15% [30] - In October 2025, the cathode copper imports were 279,944 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 22%. The cumulative imports were 2,817,921 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 6% [30] - In October 2025, the scrap copper imports were 196,607 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative imports were 1,895,530 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2% [30] - In October 2025, the copper product imports were 440,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 13.5%. The cumulative imports were 4,460,000 tons, with a year - on - year decline of 3.1% [30]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The copper price is likely to experience high - level range - bound fluctuations in the short term. The end of the domestic peak season and the traditional copper demand continue to drag down the price, and the spot market is sensitive to high copper prices. There is still a trend of the copper price rising and then falling, with attention on the 88,000 yuan/ton resistance level [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper showed a pattern of fluctuating and strengthening. Supported by supply disruptions at the mine end and expectations of macro - economic recovery, but facing significant resistance above. The copper price rose and then fell. On Friday, affected by the decline of foreign metals, Shanghai copper weakened slightly, closing at 86,900 yuan/ton, up 1.1% from the previous week [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Situation - The processing fee for imported copper concentrates remained negative with little change, and the short - term supply at the mine end was still tight. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources stated that if the safety assessment of the Grasberg mine is completed and it is considered safe, Freeport will be allowed to resume operation. The resumption time needs to be followed up [4]. - In November, SMM estimated that maintenance would affect production by 48,000 tons. Due to the continuous rise in copper prices, some smelters postponed maintenance to December again, and SMM expected a slight decline in electrolytic copper production in November [4]. - Last week, the operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises increased by 4.91 percentage points to 66.88% week - on - week and decreased by 15.92 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to increase by 1.66 percentage points to 68.54% week - on - week this week. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement and is sensitive to prices [4]. - The inventories of the world's three major exchanges increased [4]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government ended a 43 - day shutdown, and the policy shift boosted market confidence. The U.S. dollar index weakened slightly, providing support for the copper price. However, the expectations of interest rate cuts declined, and the macro - level impact was complex [4].

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4]. Price Summary - On May 9, the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted at 78,205.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 755.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,450.00 CNY per ton [1]. - The national copper price overview shows various market prices for 1 electrolytic copper, with quotes ranging from 78,205 CNY to 78,290 CNY per ton across different trading platforms [2]. Inventory Data - As of May 9, LME copper inventory recorded 191,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons or 1.29% from the previous day. Over the past week, LME copper inventory decreased by 5,525 tons, a reduction of 2.80%, and over the past month, it decreased by 20,200 tons, or 9.51% [3]. - The Shanghai copper futures inventory stood at 80,705 tons, down by 8,602 tons or 9.63% from the previous week, and a total decrease of 102,236 tons or 55.88% over the past month [3]. Market Analysis - According to a report by Industrial Futures, global macroeconomic uncertainties and the joint statement between China and Russia are improving market risk appetite. However, tight supply at the mining level and declining smelting processing fees, along with the end of the domestic consumption peak season, are contributing to a slowdown in inventory reduction. The fluctuations in the US dollar index are causing copper prices to remain within a range [4].