铜周报 铜行业周报 2025/11/21 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-11-17 财达期货｜铜周报 铜价区间震荡为主 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约呈现震荡偏强格局，受矿端供应扰动及宏 观回暖预期支撑，但上方近压力显著，铜价冲高回落，周五受外盘金属下跌 带动沪铜小幅走弱，收于 86900 元/吨，较前一周+1.1%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 供需方面，进口铜精矿加工费维持负值无太多变化，矿端短期仍供应紧 张，但印尼能源与矿产资源部表示，如果对前期因事故暂停生产的全球第二 大铜矿 Grasberg 矿，若评估完成并认为安全，将允许自由港恢复运营，后续 关注其恢复运营时间。国内方面，11 月 SMM 预计检修影响产量 4.8 万吨， 因为铜价持续走高，部分冶炼厂再度推迟检修至 12 月，SMM 预计 11 月电 解铜产量小幅度下降。上周 SMM 国内主要精铜杆企业开工率环比上升 4.91 百分点至 66.88%，同比下降 15.92 个百分点，主因再上一周铜价回调后企业 订单集中释放，成品库存去库显著，支撑开工率回升。但整体下游还是以刚 需采购为主，对价格敏感度比较高。预计本周开工率维持环比微增 1.6 ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations in prices and inventory levels, influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties and supply-demand dynamics [4]. Price Summary - On May 9, the spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai was quoted at 78,205.00 CNY per ton, with a premium of 755.00 CNY over the futures main price of 77,450.00 CNY per ton [1]. - The national copper price overview shows various market prices for 1 electrolytic copper, with quotes ranging from 78,205 CNY to 78,290 CNY per ton across different trading platforms [2]. Inventory Data - As of May 9, LME copper inventory recorded 191,800 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons or 1.29% from the previous day. Over the past week, LME copper inventory decreased by 5,525 tons, a reduction of 2.80%, and over the past month, it decreased by 20,200 tons, or 9.51% [3]. - The Shanghai copper futures inventory stood at 80,705 tons, down by 8,602 tons or 9.63% from the previous week, and a total decrease of 102,236 tons or 55.88% over the past month [3]. Market Analysis - According to a report by Industrial Futures, global macroeconomic uncertainties and the joint statement between China and Russia are improving market risk appetite. However, tight supply at the mining level and declining smelting processing fees, along with the end of the domestic consumption peak season, are contributing to a slowdown in inventory reduction. The fluctuations in the US dollar index are causing copper prices to remain within a range [4].