铜周报 20251228 现货需求承压， 宏观预期向上，铜矿供给约束 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 2 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 07 3 5 盘面强势、铜现货需求弱、贴水走扩 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12月24日LME铜0-3M升水较前周五走强 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌1.25美元/吨至-44.9美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据钢联，本周铜精矿港口库存67万吨，环比减1万吨，同比偏低 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内12月电解铜产量预计环 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. Group 2: Report's Core View - The current market for Shanghai copper is in a downstream off - season, and the macro - market sentiment influences the price fluctuations. The Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut meeting has created uncertainty in the market's expectations for next year's rate cuts. After the rate cut is implemented, the market is expected to return to fundamental factors. Although the refined - scrap copper price difference is favorable, the lack of improvement in terminal consumption means this advantage is not obvious. With the continuous increase in copper prices, downstream demand is weak, and production is cautious. There are also factors such as smelter maintenance and changes in inventory levels affecting the market [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 10, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, down 2.62% month - on - month and 12.46% year - on - year. Four smelters are expected to undergo maintenance in December, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's production data. December's production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. After the continuous rise in prices, downstream demand is insufficient. Copper tube enterprises are cautious due to rising copper prices, and their production increase is limited. The production of copper strips in Steel Union's sample enterprises is 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm has slowed down, and enterprises are cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with poor overall sales and inventory accumulation [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. Spot: On December 10, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 40 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 65 yuan/ton. On December 9, 2025, the LME official price was 11,545 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 18.5 US dollars/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of December 8, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.38 US cents/pound [6]. 4. Fundamental Tracking (Inventory) - SHFE copper inventory was 2.89 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. As of December 8, Shanghai Free - Trade Zone copper inventory was 9.99 tons, an increase of 0.50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 16.50 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 44.30 short tons, an increase of 3,537 short tons from the previous period [9].

铜周报 20251207 宏观向上，LME铜注销比猛增， 沪铜预计仍强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜现货流通货源偏紧，铜现货升水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M升水先涨后跌，周环比走弱 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.86美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增2.71万吨至75.02万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增6.69% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 外盘强 ...

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Core Insights - The prices of precious metals, particularly copper, have surged significantly, attracting global attention, with LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper contracts reaching historical highs [1] - The rising costs of copper raw materials have led to substantial pressure on downstream industries, with a reported 18% reduction in production among small and medium enterprises in the copper supply chain [2] - The copper industry is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and currency fluctuations, alongside traditional demand stagnation [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs, with significant volatility impacting different segments of the industry [3] - The supply side is under pressure, with global copper mine supply growth at only 1.6%, while smelting capacity is expanding rapidly, leading to a potential supply shortage [6] - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to offset declines in traditional demand from construction and manufacturing [5][7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many copper smelting plants are facing operational challenges due to depleting raw material inventories and declining by-product prices, leading to increased production cuts [2][4] - The high volatility in copper prices is causing significant operational risks for midstream companies, with many opting to reduce inventory levels and even halt production temporarily [4] - The transition towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, which may impact long-term copper demand [2][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish on copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by structural supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies [7][8] - The copper market is expected to experience a short-term balance but may face a structural shortage by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton [7] - The copper industry is transitioning towards higher quality production and efficiency, moving away from previous expansion strategies, which may lead to increased competitiveness and innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly copper, has drawn global attention, with significant impacts on the supply chain and production dynamics in the industry [1][5][7]. Price Dynamics - LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper futures have reached historical highs, with COMEX copper prices also hitting record levels on July 24 [1]. - The copper market is experiencing high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial attributes, and external factors such as exchange rates and geopolitical issues [5][6]. Supply Chain Impact - Many copper smelting plants are facing raw material inventory depletion, leading to increased production cuts, with 18% of downstream small and medium enterprises reducing output [2][4]. - The processing fees for copper have been declining, with long-term processing fees expected to drop significantly, impacting the profitability of smelting companies [3][6]. Demand Trends - Demand for copper is being driven by sectors such as renewable energy, AI infrastructure, and electric vehicles, while traditional sectors like construction and manufacturing are experiencing sluggish growth [5][6][7]. - The transition to aluminum in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, potentially reducing the long-term demand for copper [2][4]. Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a structural shortage in the medium to long term, with supply constraints from mining and smelting sectors, while demand from new technologies continues to grow [6][7][8]. - Analysts predict that copper prices may maintain a high level of volatility in the short term but are likely to trend upwards in the long term, potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [7][8].

铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]

Macro Overview - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting last week resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but Chairman Powell's hawkish comments created uncertainty about a potential December rate cut, reflecting internal divisions within the Fed regarding future rate paths [2][5][6] - Risk assets had already priced in the December rate cut, leading to pressure on commodities including gold and copper [2][5] Precious Metals Market - Gold prices fell by 2.75% on COMEX, while silver saw a slight decline of 0.33%. In contrast, SHFE silver rose by 0.96% [3][27] - The precious metals market is currently in an adjustment phase, lacking upward momentum due to a combination of a stronger dollar and reduced safe-haven demand [6][26] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data and the potential for changes in December rate cut expectations [57] Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices experienced minor fluctuations, with a slight decrease of 0.07%. SHFE copper fell by 0.81% [3][9] - Domestic refined copper consumption has weakened, with various segments showing signs of consumption suppression, making it difficult to sustain high copper prices [9][10] - The potential for a market squeeze in copper has decreased, leading to some capital outflow, although port congestion in Tanzania may provide price support [5][7] Inventory and Supply Chain - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, surpassing 350,000 tons, indicating a potential oversupply situation [9] - The copper concentrate TC index fell to -42.45 USD/ton, reflecting a cautious trading atmosphere with limited changes in the spot market [15] - Domestic electrolytic copper inventories rose to 192,200 tons, while SHFE gold and silver inventories showed mixed trends [20][42] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of weak demand for refined copper and related products, leading to potential production cuts in some regions [23][57] - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, driven by sovereign credit hedging, despite short-term uncertainties [57]