期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 铜周报 20260301 中东地缘扰动加剧， 沪铜预计偏强运行 节后沪铜盘面震荡上行 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节后铜现货供应压力增加，铜现货贴水承压走扩 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数平均价为-50.43美元/吨，与节前基本持平、仍低 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据钢联，本周港口铜精矿库存环比增4.6万吨至51.4万吨 精废价差较节前有所回落 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 10 8 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内2月生产天数减少、电解铜产量预计环比降但同比增；3月产量预计重新提升 铜现货进口窗口关闭 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, before and after the Spring Festival, the non - ferrous metal market showed a differentiated pattern. Macro factors dominated the price direction of non - ferrous metals, while the differences in the fundamentals of each variety led to the differentiation of inventory and consumption performance. The post - festival resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Copper - **Pricing and Supply - side Situation**: The pricing of copper is more inclined to the framework of "macro - led direction, supply rigidity provides bottom support". The short - term upward movement of copper prices is often driven by macro factors, and the mid - term support comes from the "rigidity" of the supply side. In January 2026, the copper mine supply was tight, and the spot TC continued to decline, reaching a record low of - 49.84 US dollars per dry ton at the end of the month [12]. - **Refining and Supply**: Near the Spring Festival, the refined copper smelting showed the characteristics of tight raw materials, stable production, and limited impact of maintenance. Although the spot TC of copper concentrate continued to decline, the supply of recycled copper and waste anode plates was loose, supporting the high - level production of smelters. The estimated impact of smelter maintenance on refined copper production in January was about 20,000 tons. It is expected that the Yangshan copper premium will fluctuate within a narrow range, and the net import volume of refined copper will remain relatively stable [16]. - **Downstream Processing**: During the approach of the Spring Festival, the copper processing industry showed a co - existence of seasonal stocking demand and the inhibitory effect of high prices. The starting rate of refined copper rods recovered from 47.82% at the beginning of the month to 69.54% at the end of the month. The finished product inventory increased by 3.91% month - on - month, indicating that the actual digestion ability of the terminal market was still insufficient. The starting rate of copper cables increased slightly at the end of the year, with State Grid orders as the core support. The enameled wire sector was relatively strong, with the starting rate maintained at 79% - 83% [17]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the copper social inventory had reached 335,800 tons, and the pre - festival inventory was at a relatively high level. If the subsequent arrival increases, the downstream resumption of work is slow, or the spot maintains a discount pattern, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [18][19]. Lead - **Supply - side Situation**: Before the Spring Festival, the lead concentrate market was in a pattern of tight supply and rising costs. The processing fees were at a low level, and the production cost of smelting enterprises increased. In February, the supply and demand of the lead concentrate industry would enter a weak stage. After the festival, the supply - tight pattern of the lead concentrate market would intensify, and the processing fees would likely continue to run at a low level [20][22]. - **Consumption - side Situation**: The lead market showed the characteristic of "even weaker in the off - season". The consumer market of electric bicycle batteries was weak, and the inventory of dealers was high. The export orders of automobile batteries decreased. The weekly starting rate of lead - battery enterprises dropped to about 69% and continued to decline. After the festival, the resumption of work rhythm would be the key variable, and the actual restocking demand of the downstream would be gradually released after the Lantern Festival [22][23]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of February 5, 2026, the lead ingot social inventory had reached 40,400 tons, and the inventory accumulation started earlier than in previous years. If the subsequent lead concentrate arrival increases, the resumption of work of lead - battery enterprises after the festival is slow, or the spot discount pattern continues, the peak of inventory accumulation may further rise; otherwise, the window for the decline of high inventory after the festival may appear earlier [28][29]. Aluminum - **Price and Market Situation**: After New Year's Day, the price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract rose by 16%, but the price transmission was blocked, and the downstream consumption was severely suppressed. The spot discount of aluminum ingots widened rapidly, and the aluminum rod entered a negative processing fee. The production of aluminum rods and aluminum sheets and foils decreased significantly [30][32]. - **Inventory Situation**: From December 18, 2025, to early February, the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots had reached 239,000 tons. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation this year may reach 1.4 million tons, and if the aluminum price remains high, the inventory accumulation may reach 1.5 million tons [40]. Zinc - **Price and Market Performance**: After New Year's Day, the zinc ingot price rose by 15%. Although it was in the consumption off - season, the downstream processing enterprises were less sensitive to the absolute price of zinc, and the rigid demand for procurement still existed. The starting rate of downstream consumption remained strong and resilient until the end of January, and entered the off - season in February, which was in line with the seasonal performance in previous years [43]. - **Inventory Situation**: In 2026, the inventory accumulation of zinc started in February, about 15 days before the Chinese New Year, which was not much different from previous years. It is expected that the peak of inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival this year will be less than 250,000 tons, close to 200,000 tons [43][46]. - **Supply - side and Valuation**: The current smelting loss of zinc is at a historical high level. Although the by - product income is high, the comprehensive smelting profit is still partially in a loss state. The zinc price valuation is not high, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze if the inventory is quickly depleted after the festival [54]. Operation Suggestions - For copper, pay attention to the post - festival resumption of work progress and inventory depletion rhythm, and lay out long positions on dips [5]. - For aluminum, be vigilant against high - inventory pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [5]. - For lead, pay attention to the release of restocking demand after the Lantern Festival, and mainly conduct range operations for the time being [5]. - For zinc, the smelting loss supports the price, it is recommended to go long on dips, and pay attention to the risk of a short squeeze [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and copper prices fell from high levels. The recent copper price trend was a typical market driven by macro - sentiment and transmitted through the precious metal market. The sentiment reversed in the second half of last week, likely due to Trump's nomination of "hawkish" Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed Chairman, leading to a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in copper prices. In the future, the copper market will present a complex pattern of short - term sentiment fluctuations and medium - to long - term fundamental support [4][58]. - **Aluminum**: Overseas macro - atmosphere weakened, and aluminum prices also fell from high levels. Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The financial attribute of aluminum is relatively weaker than that of copper, resulting in less price fluctuation. High aluminum prices made downstream buyers generally wait - and - see, and the industrial support may increase as prices drop. Technically, the 24,000 level can be monitored [5][59]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Factors - In the first half of the week, the US dollar index dropped significantly, benefiting the non - ferrous sector. The drop in the US dollar index and the sharp rise in gold reflected the intention of global asset allocation, i.e., "de - dollarization". In the second half of the week, Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh led to a stronger dollar, which first caused a sharp sell - off in the silver market and then affected the base metal market, causing copper prices to fall from high levels [9]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - The copper price trend was affected by macro - sentiment. The market was initially optimistic due to the rise of precious metals, but sentiment reversed later, causing copper prices to fall [4]. 3.2.2 Copper Ore Shortage - On January 30, the copper ore port inventory was 523,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 46,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 187,000 tons [25]. 3.2.3 Continuous Accumulation of Electrolytic Copper Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic copper social inventory was 335,800 tons, a weekly increase of 600 tons; the COMEX + LME inventory was 751,200 tons, a weekly increase of 23,600 tons. Overseas electrolytic copper inventory continued to accumulate, while the accumulation in China slowed down [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial Processing - According to SMM on January 29, the operating rate of domestic major refined copper rod enterprises from January 23 to January 29 was 69.54%, a month - on - month increase of 1.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.9 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Last week, aluminum prices first rose and then fell. The main contract once reached the 26,000 level but then dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the commodity market and profit - taking [5][59]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On January 30, the bauxite port inventory was 2,419.07 million tons, a decrease of 309,300 tons from last week and an increase of 649,070 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [42]. 3.3.3 Low Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On January 29, the Mysteel electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 800,000 tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from last week; the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 501,900 tons, a decrease of 12,800 tons from last week [46]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial Processing - Last week, aluminum prices rose, and the processing fees in most regions decreased significantly, reflecting the increasing wait - and - see sentiment of downstream buyers. On January 29, the aluminum rod inventory was 140,500 tons, an increase of 17,200 tons from last week. High aluminum prices may suppress downstream demand, and the inventory accumulation speed can be continuously monitored [52][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - **Domestic Smelting End**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode**: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - **Refined Copper Rod**: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - **Copper Tube**: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - **Copper Bar**: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - **Copper Foil**: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - **Home Appliance Consumption**: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper spot demand is under pressure, the macro - expectation is upward, and there are constraints on copper mine supply [1] - The copper futures market shows a strong performance, while the spot demand is weak, and the discount is widening [10] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - On December 24, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened compared to the previous Friday [12] - The copper market shows a situation of strong futures and weak spot demand with an expanding discount [10] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.25 per ton week - on - week to - $44.9 per ton, remaining at a low level [14] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week and lower compared to the same period last year [17] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [19] - The estimated domestic electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month, and exported 143,000 tons, an increase of 116.8% month - on - month [22] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly [23] - LME copper continued to destock, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [24] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week and is expected to remain under pressure next week [26] - From December 1st to 21st, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 1% year - on - year and 3% compared to the same period last month [28] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly [31] - The planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January increased by 6% compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year, with household air conditioners increasing by 11% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [37] - The US GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, with the core PCE increasing by 2.9% [39] - The US labor market is recovering, with the ADP weekly average private employment showing positive growth for three consecutive weeks [42]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given reports. Group 2: Report's Core View - The current market for Shanghai copper is in a downstream off - season, and the macro - market sentiment influences the price fluctuations. The Fed's upcoming interest - rate cut meeting has created uncertainty in the market's expectations for next year's rate cuts. After the rate cut is implemented, the market is expected to return to fundamental factors. Although the refined - scrap copper price difference is favorable, the lack of improvement in terminal consumption means this advantage is not obvious. With the continuous increase in copper prices, downstream demand is weak, and production is cautious. There are also factors such as smelter maintenance and changes in inventory levels affecting the market [1]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 10, 2025, Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, down 2.62% month - on - month and 12.46% year - on - year. Four smelters are expected to undergo maintenance in December, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, which will be reflected in January's production data. December's production is expected to increase due to previous restarts. After the continuous rise in prices, downstream demand is insufficient. Copper tube enterprises are cautious due to rising copper prices, and their production increase is limited. The production of copper strips in Steel Union's sample enterprises is 1.49 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. The production rhythm has slowed down, and enterprises are cautious. The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises has declined, with poor overall sales and inventory accumulation [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and trended lower, with weak intraday fluctuations. Spot: On December 10, 2025, the spot premium in East China was 40 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 65 yuan/ton. On December 9, 2025, the LME official price was 11,545 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 18.5 US dollars/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side Situation - As of December 8, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.38 US cents/pound [6]. 4. Fundamental Tracking (Inventory) - SHFE copper inventory was 2.89 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous period. As of December 8, Shanghai Free - Trade Zone copper inventory was 9.99 tons, an increase of 0.50 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 16.50 tons, an increase of 1,125 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 44.30 short tons, an increase of 3,537 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251207: Macro Upward, Sharp Increase in LME Copper Cancellation Ratio, Shanghai Copper Expected to Remain Strong [1] Core Viewpoint - With the macroeconomic upward trend and a sharp increase in the LME copper cancellation ratio, Shanghai copper is expected to remain strong [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot circulation sources are tight, and the copper spot premium has risen [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first rose and then fell, showing a week - on - week weakening [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.86/ton, still at a low level [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 750,200 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [19] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - The overseas market is strong, the copper export window is open, and some smelters are actively preparing for exports [23] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory both continued to decrease week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory is still increasing but the cancellation ratio has soared, while COMEX inventory continues to increase [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The breakthrough of the market to a record high significantly suppressed the consumption of refined copper rods [28] - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9 [40] - The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded to 2.2% in November [42] - Hassett said that now is a good time for another cautious interest rate cut [44]

Core Insights - The copper market is expected to maintain a tight balance in supply and demand, with prices projected to rise, reaching historical highs by the end of 2025, driven by financial factors and market sentiment rather than actual demand shortages [2][4][15] - Global refined copper demand in 2024 is anticipated to be dominated by China, accounting for 58% of total consumption, while the U.S. will contribute 6% [2][24] - China's copper demand is expected to grow steadily in 2025, with significant increases in the production of copper rods and tubes, while copper foil shows exceptional performance [3][25] Supply and Demand Dynamics - From January to August 2025, the global copper supply and demand remained in a tight balance, with an average monthly surplus of 0.8 thousand tons, despite high prices suppressing demand [2][19] - The refined copper consumption in 2025 is projected to increase, primarily driven by China, Japan, and Germany, while demand from Mexico and Finland is expected to decline [20][24] - The supply side is characterized by a slow increase in C1 costs and ongoing shortages in the mining sector, with refined copper production growth lagging behind that of copper concentrate [3][19] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The copper price is expected to experience fluctuations, with a projected average of $9,704 per ton in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [4][12] - The price movements in 2025 are influenced by traditional commodity attributes, with financial attributes showing a negative correlation, particularly as the U.S. dollar fluctuates [4][13][15] - The anticipated tight supply and steady demand are expected to keep copper prices on an upward trajectory, potentially reaching $10,500 per ton in 2026 [5][15] Investment Strategies - Investment opportunities are identified in upstream mining resources, particularly in companies with significant resource advantages, such as Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [5] - Downstream processing companies with high barriers to entry are also recommended, including Hailiang Co., with a focus on those performing well in their respective sectors [5]

Core Insights - The prices of precious metals, particularly copper, have surged significantly, attracting global attention, with LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper contracts reaching historical highs [1] - The rising costs of copper raw materials have led to substantial pressure on downstream industries, with a reported 18% reduction in production among small and medium enterprises in the copper supply chain [2] - The copper industry is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and currency fluctuations, alongside traditional demand stagnation [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs, with significant volatility impacting different segments of the industry [3] - The supply side is under pressure, with global copper mine supply growth at only 1.6%, while smelting capacity is expanding rapidly, leading to a potential supply shortage [6] - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to offset declines in traditional demand from construction and manufacturing [5][7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many copper smelting plants are facing operational challenges due to depleting raw material inventories and declining by-product prices, leading to increased production cuts [2][4] - The high volatility in copper prices is causing significant operational risks for midstream companies, with many opting to reduce inventory levels and even halt production temporarily [4] - The transition towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, which may impact long-term copper demand [2][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish on copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by structural supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies [7][8] - The copper market is expected to experience a short-term balance but may face a structural shortage by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton [7] - The copper industry is transitioning towards higher quality production and efficiency, moving away from previous expansion strategies, which may lead to increased competitiveness and innovation [8]