Core Insights - The prices of precious metals, particularly copper, have surged significantly, attracting global attention, with LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper contracts reaching historical highs [1] - The rising costs of copper raw materials have led to substantial pressure on downstream industries, with a reported 18% reduction in production among small and medium enterprises in the copper supply chain [2] - The copper industry is experiencing a shift in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by factors such as geopolitical events and currency fluctuations, alongside traditional demand stagnation [5][6] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Copper prices have shown a strong upward trend, reaching historical highs, with significant volatility impacting different segments of the industry [3] - The supply side is under pressure, with global copper mine supply growth at only 1.6%, while smelting capacity is expanding rapidly, leading to a potential supply shortage [6] - The demand for copper is being driven by new applications in AI and renewable energy sectors, which are expected to offset declines in traditional demand from construction and manufacturing [5][7] Group 2: Industry Challenges - Many copper smelting plants are facing operational challenges due to depleting raw material inventories and declining by-product prices, leading to increased production cuts [2][4] - The high volatility in copper prices is causing significant operational risks for midstream companies, with many opting to reduce inventory levels and even halt production temporarily [4] - The transition towards aluminum as a substitute for copper in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, which may impact long-term copper demand [2][8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains bullish on copper prices in the medium to long term, driven by structural supply constraints and increasing demand from emerging technologies [7][8] - The copper market is expected to experience a short-term balance but may face a structural shortage by 2026, with prices potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton [7] - The copper industry is transitioning towards higher quality production and efficiency, moving away from previous expansion strategies, which may lead to increased competitiveness and innovation [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in precious metal prices, particularly copper, has drawn global attention, with significant impacts on the supply chain and production dynamics in the industry [1][5][7]. Price Dynamics - LME three-month copper and Shanghai copper futures have reached historical highs, with COMEX copper prices also hitting record levels on July 24 [1]. - The copper market is experiencing high volatility, influenced by supply-demand dynamics, financial attributes, and external factors such as exchange rates and geopolitical issues [5][6]. Supply Chain Impact - Many copper smelting plants are facing raw material inventory depletion, leading to increased production cuts, with 18% of downstream small and medium enterprises reducing output [2][4]. - The processing fees for copper have been declining, with long-term processing fees expected to drop significantly, impacting the profitability of smelting companies [3][6]. Demand Trends - Demand for copper is being driven by sectors such as renewable energy, AI infrastructure, and electric vehicles, while traditional sectors like construction and manufacturing are experiencing sluggish growth [5][6][7]. - The transition to aluminum in various applications is accelerating due to rising copper costs, potentially reducing the long-term demand for copper [2][4]. Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to face a structural shortage in the medium to long term, with supply constraints from mining and smelting sectors, while demand from new technologies continues to grow [6][7][8]. - Analysts predict that copper prices may maintain a high level of volatility in the short term but are likely to trend upwards in the long term, potentially exceeding 90,000 yuan per ton by 2026 [7][8].

铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Core Insights - The current spot price for 1 electrolytic copper in Shanghai is reported at 86,795.00 CNY/ton, showing a discount of 45.0 CNY/ton compared to the futures main price of 86,840.00 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market closed with the main contract for copper at 86,840.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.16%, with a trading volume of 76,287 lots [2] Industry Overview - A survey of 61 domestic refined copper rod production enterprises indicates a total capacity of 15.84 million tons, with an expected production of 756,000 tons in October 2025, representing a month-on-month decrease of 10.99% [3] - A survey of 74 sample enterprises in the recycled copper rod sector shows a total capacity of 8.19 million tons, with an anticipated production of 167,700 tons in October 2025, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 1.81% [3] - The increase in copper prices in October has notably suppressed downstream demand, leading to a significant decline in refined copper rod production [3] Market Analysis - According to a report from Guangzhou Futures, the nearing end of the U.S. government shutdown has reduced macroeconomic risks, but uncertainties in economic data continue to create speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts in December [4] - The copper market is experiencing a transmission of raw material shortages to the smelting sector due to mining accidents, with current prices showing bottom support; however, a breakthrough above previous highs requires additional positive drivers and substantial capital inflow [4] - The market is expected to trend within a range, indicating a potential for fluctuations rather than a clear upward trajectory [4]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 对冲研投研究院 编辑 | 杨兰 摘要 宏观层面出现一定程度的逆风。上周中联储 FOMC会议虽然如期降息25BP，但是鲍威尔在会后的记者招待会上发表鹰派言论，表示对于12 月降息并不确定。这也从一定程度上反映了联储内部对于后续利率路径的明显分歧。由于各项资产此前已经充分定价了12月的降息，鲍威尔 的言论使得包括金铜在内的资产有所承压。 核心观点 01 上周金铜震荡盘整 贵金属方面，上周 COMEX 黄金下跌 2.75%，白银 下跌 0.33%；沪金2512合约 下跌 1.72%，沪银2512 合约上涨 0.96%。主要工业金属 价格中，COMEX铜、沪铜分别变动-0.07%、-0.81%。 鹰派发言施压铜价，但港口拥堵在发酵 0 2 上周中联储 FOMC会议虽然如期降息25BP，但是鲍威尔在会后的记者招待会上发表鹰派言论，表示对于12月降息并不确定。这也从一 定程度上反映了联储内部对于后续利率路径的明显分歧。风险资产此前已经充分定价了12月的降息，鲍威尔的言论使得包括铜在内的资 产有所承压。此外，铜市场挤仓的可能性在上周也有所下降，这使得部分资金流出市场。不过周末坦桑尼亚达累 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is bullish, driven by macro - optimistic sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract 2512 closed at 87,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The market went up due to factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, slow growth of US core CPI in September, and positive economic data from China, the US, and Europe [4]. - The supply of copper is expected to be tight. Domestic smelters' maintenance expanded in October, with anode copper supplement limited. The output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the output in November is also expected to decline month - on - month. The net import of copper in October increased month - on - month [4]. - The demand for copper is affected by high prices. The consumption of refined copper rods is dull. The sales area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities from October 13 - 19 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year. The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week, while LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Data - The copper spot premium and discount declined as the market was strong but the procurement sentiment weakened. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium and discount weakened week - on - week [12][13]. b) Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.73/ton week - on - week to - $42.7/ton, remaining at a low level [18]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports decreased by 0.26 tons week - on - week to 67.81 tons [20]. - The change in the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [22]. - The domestic electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [24]. - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [26]. - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week. LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [27][28]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased slightly week - on - week, and consumption was dull due to high copper prices [31]. - The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to be 2.2 million, a decrease of 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year [33]. - The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [34]. - The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [35]. c) Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [38]. - The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, and the euro - zone composite PMI in October reached the highest level in a year and a half [40]. - The US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest growth in three months, which increased the expectation of another interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [43].

Group 1: Report Summary - China-US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, and the market risk preference has increased [11] - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held from October 20th to 23rd, passing the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", which injected confidence into the market [14] - As of the week of October 17th, the standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.7 dollars/ton dry, down 0.13 dollars/ton dry from last week, and the copper concentrate processing fee continued to be under pressure [23] - The trading strategy is to wait for the opportunity to buy on dips when Shanghai copper is in a strong state but may face pressure at the 88,000 integer mark [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - Spot processing fees remain low, and the tightness at the mine end still exists; social inventory has a small decline [8] - Domestic and foreign macro - sentiments have warmed up; China - US economic and trade consultations have started, and the market risk preference has increased [8][9] Bearish Factors - Downstream feedback shows weak consumption performance [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Copper Ore and Concentrate Imports - In September, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.5869 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.43%. The supply from Chile dropped by more than 30% [20] Copper Concentrate TC - As of October 17th, the copper concentrate TC continued to be at a low level, and the long - term negotiation has entered the initial stage with large differences [23] Electrolytic Copper Production - In September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2%. In October, the output is expected to continue to decline due to peak - season maintenance and other factors [25] Scrap Copper Imports - In September, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%, mainly due to policy adjustments and market demand [29] Copper Plate and Strip Production - In September, the domestic copper plate and strip production was 196,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.35%, ending four consecutive months of decline but still lower than the same period last year [33] Copper Rod Production - In September, the domestic refined copper rod production was 849,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%, and the recycled copper rod production was 170,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [37] Refined - Scrap Copper Price Difference - As of October 23rd, the refined - scrap copper price difference was around 230 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [41] Copper Inventory - As of October 23rd, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 189,800 tons, a decrease of 57,000 tons from the 20th. LME copper inventory decreased, while SHFE copper inventory increased [54] Copper Spot Premium - On October 23rd, the Shanghai Wumaohui 1 copper spot premium turned to a discount, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [58] Group 4: Fundamental Analysis Real Estate Market - From January to September, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. In September, the housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline, and the real estate market is still weak [45][47] New Energy Vehicle Industry - In September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, showing a strong development momentum [50] Group 5: Market Outlook - Shanghai copper has returned to a strong state, but there may be pressure at the 88,000 integer mark. Wait for the opportunity to buy on dips and pay attention to the results of China - US consultations [60]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View The fundamentals provide limited support, while the macro - environment is positive, leading to a relatively strong performance of Shanghai Copper [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - Downstream purchasing sentiment is low, pressuring the copper spot premium/discount [10]. - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [11]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.45/ton week - on - week to - $41.3/ton, remaining at a low level [15]. - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.44 tons week - on - week to 69.27 tons [18]. - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [21]. - Affected by maintenance in September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by over 4% month - on - month and increase by over 11% year - on - year [23]. - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24]. - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory continued to decline week - on - week [26]. - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week due to high copper prices, cautious downstream purchasing, and weak consumption [30]. - From September 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 3% year - on - year [32]. - The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September will increase slightly month - on - month, but there is a divergence among leading enterprises [33]. - The planned output of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual output of the same period last year [35]. Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in August was 2.57 trillion yuan, and new loans were 590 billion yuan [39]. - The US core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [41]. - US inflation is basically in line with expectations, and the annual revision of non - farm payrolls is worse than expected, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut [42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,410, up 480 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,061 lots, down 2,342; the open interest was 173,826 lots, up 4,829; the inventory was 21,412 tons, up 180 [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,902, up 84 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 158,900 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.5445, down 0.00 from the previous day; the total inventory was 275,226, up 3,121 [2]. Industry Information - **Production and Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Due to the impact of changes in waste copper collection, the supply of waste copper will significantly decrease in September, and the output of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from waste copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production will drop significantly by 5.25 tons in September and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating - ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale production [2]. Industry Operation - **Copper Rod**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared with last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper enameled wire decreased (dropped) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese enameled wire enterprises decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese copper plate and strip decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) [2]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tubes may decrease month - on - month in September, as the total air - conditioning and heat - pump volume is expected to be lower than last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US [2]. Investment Strategy - **Trading Suggestion**: Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].