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铜周报20250928:供给担忧主导盘面,沪铜预计震荡偏强-20250929
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:18
Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]
铜周报20250914:基本面支撑有限,宏观向上,沪铜偏强-20250915
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:57
铜周报 20250914 基本面支撑有限,宏观向上, 沪铜偏强 期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号:F03128841 投资咨询证号:Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 07 3 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 下游采购情绪较低落,铜现货升贴水承压 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有扩大 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.45美元/吨至-41.3美元/吨,仍低 8 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM,本周十港铜精矿库存环比增0.44万吨至69.27万吨 9 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差周环比走强 10 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源:钢联、ifind、国联期货 9月 ...
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂9月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250901
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 07:19
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September is almost certain, combined with the expectation of the domestic traditional off - season turning to the peak season and the low domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, may lead to a cautious and bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,410, up 480 from the previous day; the trading volume was 71,061 lots, down 2,342; the open interest was 173,826 lots, up 4,829; the inventory was 21,412 tons, up 180 [2]. - **London Copper**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,902, up 84 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 158,900 from the previous day [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On August 28, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.5445, down 0.00 from the previous day; the total inventory was 275,226, up 3,121 [2]. Industry Information - **Production and Supply**: In August, the domestic electrolytic copper production decreased slightly by 0.28 tons. Due to the impact of changes in waste copper collection, the supply of waste copper will significantly decrease in September, and the output of some enterprises directly producing electrolytic copper from waste copper will also decrease. SMM expects that the electrolytic copper production will drop significantly by 5.25 tons in September and remain at a low level in October [2]. - **Project Progress**: The floating - ship pumping station and back - water system, a key supporting project of the Mirador copper mine expansion project under Tongling Nonferrous, completed the overall commissioning, marking a solid step towards full - scale production [2]. Industry Operation - **Copper Rod**: The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared with last week. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese refined copper rod (recycled copper rod) decreased compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises decreased (increased) compared with last week, while that of recycled copper rod enterprises increased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Wire and Cable**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper wire and cable decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Enameled Wire**: The order volume (capacity utilization rate) of Chinese copper enameled wire decreased (dropped) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese enameled wire enterprises decreased (increased) [2]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: The capacity utilization rate (production volume) of Chinese copper plate and strip decreased (decreased) compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of Chinese copper plate and strip enterprises increased (decreased) [2]. - **Copper Tube**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese copper tubes may decrease month - on - month in September, as the total air - conditioning and heat - pump volume is expected to be lower than last year, and high tariffs suppress export orders to the US [2]. Investment Strategy - **Trading Suggestion**: Hold previous long positions cautiously. Pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [2].
铜周报20250817:供需矛盾有限,宏观向上,盘面震荡偏强-20250818
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:31
Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250817: Limited Supply - Demand Contradiction, Upward Macro, and Bullish Oscillation in the Market [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of copper is limited, the macro - economic situation is upward, and the copper futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Key Points by Section Price Data - The spot supply of copper is tight, the purchasing sentiment has increased, and the spot premium has risen [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M spread has continued to widen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has increased by $0.38 per ton week - on - week to - $37.68 per ton, showing a recovery but still remaining low [15] - The copper concentrate inventory at nine ports has decreased by 62,000 tons week - on - week to 557,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - Only one domestic smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters with production cuts has increased, and the electrolytic copper output is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - The copper import window has opened [21] - The week - on - week change in the electrolytic copper spot inventory is limited, while the bonded - area inventory has continued to increase [23] - The LME copper inventory has hardly changed, and the COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [25] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods has increased, and downstream purchases have increased [27] - From August 1st to 10th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China have increased by 6% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [28] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has changed little month - on - month [31] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August has decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year, with the air - conditioner production volume decreasing by 2.8% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan [36] - The US CPI in July has increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; the PPI has increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [39] - Two new candidates for the Fed Chair support significant interest - rate cuts [40]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250811
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 06:44
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily review of copper on August 11, 2025, focusing on the copper market, including price, inventory, and industry trends [1] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On August 8, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,490, up 30 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,906 lots, up 196; the open interest was 156,892 lots, down 709; the inventory was 21,272 tons, up 1,127 [2] - The basis of Shanghai copper was 40, unchanged from the previous day; the spot premium or discount in Guangzhou was -40, up 5; in North China was -120, unchanged; in East China was -5, up 10 [2] - The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was -30, down 20; between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was 20, up 30; between the second - continuous and the first - continuous contract was 20, down 10 [2] London Copper - The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 8, 2025, was 9,768, up 97.5 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, down 155,850 from the previous day [2] - The spread of the LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -69.55, down 3.92; the 3 - 15 months contract was -141.49, down 1.49 [2] COMEX Copper - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 8, 2025, was 4.485, up 0.07 from the previous day [2] - The total inventory was 264,140, up 1,036 from the previous day [2] Group 3: Industry News - Chile's Codelco received approval from the labor department to resume operations in the unaffected areas of its El Teniente copper mine [2] - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wire in East China increased compared to last week, leading to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper wire and cable increased, while the raw material and finished - product inventories decreased [2] - The order volume and capacity utilization rate of China's copper enameled wire decreased and increased respectively, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate and production of China's copper strip increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's copper tubes increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days increased and decreased respectively [2] - The capacity utilization rate of China's brass rods increased, and the raw material and finished - product inventory days decreased [2] - Due to the easing of Sino - US tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate, production, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper products enterprises in August may decline [2] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Due to the weakening US job market, rising expectations of Fed rate cuts, the weekly operation capacity of the domestic copper processing industry, and the weekly decline in domestic electrolytic copper social inventory, the price of Shanghai copper may rebound [2] - Investors are advised to lightly test long positions on the main contract on dips, with support and resistance levels at 77,000 - 78,000 and 80,000 - 81,000 for Shanghai copper, 9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200 for London copper, and 4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0 for US copper [2]
金属周报 | 当反内卷遇上关税战:铜的“政策红利”与黄金的“避险溢价”
对冲研投· 2025-07-21 12:09
Group 1 - The overall macroeconomic environment last week was neutral to slightly positive, with Trump initially pressuring Powell and rumors of his potential dismissal, which led to a temporary rebound in copper prices before being denied by Trump [1][3] - Inflation data met expectations, reflecting the impact of tariffs on inflation, which caused the market to reduce expectations for interest rate cuts later this year, putting pressure on prices [1][3] - Gold prices showed a strong performance, supported by market resilience and expectations of potential interest rate cuts, despite ongoing tariff risks [4][50] Group 2 - Last week, COMEX gold fell by 0.44% and silver by 1.66%, while SHFE gold and silver rose by 0.45% and 2.58% respectively [2] - The copper market saw a slight rebound, with SHFE copper prices returning above 79,000 yuan/ton, driven by positive sentiment from urban renewal meetings and expectations of further measures against "involution" [6][49] - The copper concentrate TC weekly index was -43.20 USD/ton, showing a slight increase, with the market remaining relatively stable [8] Group 3 - The COMEX copper price curve shifted upward, maintaining a contango structure, while COMEX copper inventories exceeded 240,000 tons, indicating potential for further accumulation [6] - The domestic market for electrolytic copper saw a slight increase in inventory, with total stocks at 144,400 tons, reflecting limited demand from downstream processing enterprises [14] - The processing fees for 8mm refined copper rods increased, particularly in East China, although overall demand remains limited due to seasonal factors [16] Group 4 - The gold and silver prices fluctuated at high levels, with COMEX gold trading between 3,314 and 3,389 USD/oz, and silver between 37.6 and 39.6 USD/oz [19] - COMEX gold inventory increased by approximately 445,000 ounces to 37.19 million ounces, while silver inventory rose by about 232,000 ounces to 49.724 million ounces [35] - The SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 4 tons to 944 tons, while SLV silver ETF holdings fell by 100 tons to 14,658 tons, indicating a shift in market sentiment [40]
铜产业链周度报告-20250718
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 12:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile trend, but investors need to be wary of risks brought by subsequent tariffs [5][65]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Report Summary - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, reaching the lowest level since mid - April, indicating the resilience of the employment market [5]. - In June, the US retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, better than expected, alleviating concerns about consumer spending contraction [5]. - The US CPI in June increased by 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, both lower than market expectations [5]. - Domestically, the GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year. In June, industrial production was strong while demand was weak. The production of refined copper in the second quarter is expected to increase [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish factors**: Domestic TC maintains a low and weak quotation; US retail sales in June are better than expected; the spot has changed from a discount to a premium [8]. - **Bearish factors**: The tight inventory situation in non - US regions has eased; LME copper inventory continues to rise [8]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper ore imports**: In June, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.35 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were 14.754 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Chile's copper exports to China have rebounded [18]. - **Mining end**: As of the week of July 11, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 43.31 dollars/dry ton, up 0.12 dollars/dry ton from the previous week. The spot market is expected to remain stable [22]. - **Electrolytic copper production**: In May, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1417 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 16.33%. The production in June is expected to remain high [24]. - **Waste copper imports**: In May, China's waste copper imports were 185,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.53%. The supply from major countries has declined [27]. - **Refined - waste price difference**: As of July 17, the refined - waste price difference was around - 1,075 yuan/ton, which is conducive to refined copper consumption [31]. - **Copper product production**: In June, the production of refined copper rods decreased, the production of copper strips decreased, the production of copper materials increased, the production of household refrigerators increased, and the export of automobiles maintained a high growth rate [35][39][43][46][50]. - **Real estate market**: From January to June, real estate development investment decreased by 11.2% year - on - year, with declines in new construction and completion areas [54]. - **Copper inventory**: LME copper inventory has accumulated, with the latest level at 122,150 tons. SHFE copper inventory decreased slightly to 81,462 tons in the week of July 11. COMEX inventory has continued to accumulate, reaching 241,814 tons. Domestic spot inventory increased to 144,400 tons on July 17 [58]. - **Copper spot premium**: On July 17, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 copper spot changed from a discount to a premium of about 85 yuan/ton, while the LME 0 - 3 spot discount widened to about - 58.71 dollars/ton [62]. 3.4后市研判 - The copper price will maintain a volatile trend, but risks from subsequent tariffs should be watched out for [65].
铜价高位震荡延续,供给需求角力未明
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 08:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market may maintain high - level volatility in the short term. Supply - side factors such as the resumption of mine shipments and high domestic smelting capacity release pose pressure, but export diversion and the commissioning of bonded mixed ore support domestic spot premiums. On the demand side, the continuous decline in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises restricts the upside space, and the weakening of the US dollar provides short - term bullish support [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Changes - On June 30, the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 79,800 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.08% from the previous day. The LME copper price slightly declined from $9,896/ton to $9,879/ton, maintaining a high - level volatility pattern. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper in the spot market all increased, and the basis strengthened overall [1]. - SHFE copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, with two consecutive weeks of destocking. LME copper inventory continued to increase by 505 tons to 25,851 tons. The holding volume of the LME 0 - 3 copper contract increased by 4,590 lots to 292,214 lots [2]. 3.1.2 Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Overseas mine disturbances eased, and the domestic smelting sector showed differentiation. The spot supply in Jiangsu was tight due to export plans, while the warehouse receipts in Shanghai and Guangdong increased, and the smelting plant operating rate remained high [3]. - Demand side: The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises continued to decline. During the week from June 20th to 26th, it decreased by 1.81 percentage points to 74.01%, and some enterprises planned further production cuts and inventory reduction at the beginning of July. Downstream buyers showed obvious high - price aversion, with weak spot trading in North China [4]. - Inventory side: The pressure of overseas visible inventory increased, with the LME inventory increasing by more than 2,000 tons in two consecutive weeks to 25,851 tons, and the COMEX inventory also increasing to 209,281 short tons. The destocking pace of domestic SHFE inventory slowed down, and there was a risk of spot market liquidity after export diversion [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - The price of SMM 1 copper decreased by 210 yuan/ton to 80,090 yuan/ton on June 30, a decrease of 0.26%. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper all increased, with increases of 11.11%, 35.29%, and 83.33% respectively. The LME (0 - 3) price decreased by 59 dollars/ton to 182 dollars/ton, a decrease of 24.51%. The SHFE price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.08%. The LME price decreased by 1 dollar/ton to 9,878 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.01% [8]. - LME inventory increased by 505 tons to 25,851 tons, an increase of 1.99%. SHFE inventory decreased by 650 tons to 90,625 tons, a decrease of 0.71%. COMEX inventory increased by 1,928 short tons to 211,209 short tons, an increase of 0.92% [8]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - On June 30, SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts increased by 505 tons, with 399 tons in Shanghai and 401 tons in Guangdong, and a decrease of 295 tons in Jiangsu. The continuous decrease of warehouse receipts in Jiangsu was due to the export plans of local smelters [9]. - On June 30, First Quantum Minerals' Cobre Panama copper mine started to transport copper ore, which may increase supply [9]. - From June 20th to 26th, the weekly operating rate of domestic main refined copper rod enterprises decreased to 74.01%, a decrease of 1.81 percentage points, lower than the expected value by 2.22 percentage points, and an increase of 4.99 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected that the operating rate will further decline to 73.48% in the week from June 27th to July 3rd [9]. - On June 25th, the copper concentrate mixing project of Zhongtong (Tangshan) Mineral Products Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation, marking the full - scale smooth operation of the bonded mixed ore business process [10]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts of China PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, US interest rate and LME copper price correlation, dollar index and LME copper price correlation, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, SHFE copper warehouse receipts, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [11][12][13]
铜周报20250622:宏观、基本面多空交织,铜短期仍震荡-20250622
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 10:45
Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂5月检修产能或环增,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250520
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-05-20 05:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to expectations of a rush to export, but the traditional off - season for consumption is approaching. The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has increased compared to last week, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to fluctuate widely. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 19, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,820, down 320 from the previous day; the trading volume was 82,415 lots, an increase of 10,104; the open interest was 171,235 lots, a decrease of 9,255; and the inventory was 61,913 tons, a decrease of 1,334 [2]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,110, down 720; the Shanghai copper basis was 290, down 400; the spot premiums and discounts in different regions showed varying degrees of decline [2]. - **Spread**: The spread between near - month and far - month contracts of Shanghai copper showed minor changes, with the spread between near - month and continuous - first contracts increasing by 10, and the spreads between continuous - first and continuous - second, continuous - second and continuous - third contracts decreasing [2]. - **London Copper and COMEX Copper**: The LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,523.5, up 76; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a significant decrease of 174,325; the COMEX copper futures active contract closing price was 4.6635, down 0.02, and the total inventory weight was 170,380, an increase of 1,817 [2]. Industry News - **Mine Operations**: The Zaldivar copper mine in Chile has received environmental approval to extend its operation until 2028; the Antamina copper mine in Peru has started to resume production; some mines in Poland, Kazakhstan, and other places have suspended production due to various reasons [2][4]. - **Production and Expansion Projects**: Multiple copper mine and smelter projects have production, expansion, or suspension plans. For example, the ACS - Metalstopes metal mine's fluidized copper ore expansion project will be put into production in Q1 2020; the second - phase project of some copper mines may increase production capacity in 2025 [4]. - **Trade and Policy**: The US budget resolution includes tax cuts and debt ceiling increases; the US economic data may lead to Fed rate cuts; trade disputes and export policies affect copper trade, such as the export approval and higher export tax for Indonesian copper concentrate [3][4]. Downstream Market - **Copper Rod Enterprises**: The new orders and long - term order executions of refined copper rod enterprises have significantly decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of refined and recycled copper rod enterprises have increased, with changes in raw material and finished product inventories [4]. - **Other Downstream Products**: The capacity utilization rates of various copper products such as copper wires and cables, electrolytic copper rods, recycled copper rods, copper clad wires, steel strips, copper foils, copper tubes, and brass rods may decline due to factors such as high copper prices, trade policies, and market demand [4].