Q&A 136 号文件出台的背景和总体目标是什么？ 对话专家：136 号文对电煤的中长期影响推演 20250924 摘要 136 号文件标志着新能源告别全额保障性收购，全面进入市场交易，对 电力市场化和全国统一电力市场建设具有划时代意义，旨在缓解工商业 用户成本压力并提高电网调节能力。 新能源全面入市改变了火电在现货市场中的主体地位，尤其在午间低谷 时段，火电面临负电价风险，同时辅助服务成本增加进一步加剧了火电 的经营压力。 存量新能源项目受到政策调整影响，部分省份已开始降低或调整标杆上 网电价；增量项目收益率显著下降，如山东户用光伏收益率从 15%降至 7%，预计该效应将扩展至其他省份。 新型储能通过峰谷套利对火电形成竞争压力，国家政策推动储能发展， 增加了市场参与主体，间接压制了晚高峰时段的市场价格，影响火电的 竞争力和收益。 当前电力市场供过于求，2025 年 1-8 月全国用电量增长低于预期，新 增新能源装机导致弃电率上升，火电利用小时数同比下降约 160-180 小 时，预计 2026 年该趋势将持续。 136 号文件于 2025 年 3 月出台，其背景主要是由于新能源发展速度过快，特 别是 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery market is expected to see significant growth in the first half of 2025, driven by domestic production and sales increases, as well as demand from the old-for-new policy and fluctuations in U.S. tariff policies [1][2]. Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, global lithium battery production reached 986.5 GWh, marking a 48.3% year-on-year increase, with power batteries contributing the most at 684 GWh (up 49%) and energy storage batteries exceeding 25% market share at 258 GWh (up 106%) [2][4]. Segment Analysis Power Segment - In China, the continuation of the old-for-new subsidy policy and the popularity of new models led to domestic new energy vehicle sales reaching 6.937 million units in the first half of 2025, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. The commercial vehicle market saw a significant demand increase, with sales of new energy commercial vehicles reaching 70,000 units (up 58.6%) [4][5]. - In the overseas market, the EU has eased carbon emission assessments for car manufacturers, and countries like Belgium and Poland are providing subsidies to stimulate local demand for new energy vehicles. The U.S. market, however, faced challenges due to policy changes affecting EV subsidies [4][5]. Energy Storage Segment - The energy storage market experienced strong demand in the first half of the year due to both preemptive stocking and installation needs. In China, the large-scale storage market was influenced by the cancellation of mandatory storage policies, leading to increased demand for upstream battery cells [5]. - Internationally, the U.S. maintained high demand for power storage, although fluctuating tariff policies created some disruptions. Europe saw a rise in demand as inventory was consumed, while markets in the Middle East and Southeast Asia continued to show strong demand [5]. Digital Consumer Segment - The introduction of the old-for-new policy for high-end electronic consumer goods set a positive tone for the digital consumer market in early 2025, with a noticeable recovery in demand for products like smartphones. The electric tools market is also expanding, particularly with the rise of humanoid robots [5]. Future Outlook - The overall demand in the domestic market is expected to remain strong, with Chinese lithium battery manufacturers like CATL, BYD, and Zhongchuang Innovation further increasing their global market share. The global lithium battery production is projected to exceed 2000 GWh in 2025, driven by the growth of popular new energy vehicle models and advancements in energy storage technology [6][8].