Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Equity Market - **Key Focus**: 1H25 results, 15th Five-Year Plan, sector performance, and investment strategies Key Findings from 1H25 Results - **Performance Metrics**: Among 445 A and H share companies, 28% reported earnings beats, 40% in-line, and 31% misses [3][14] - **Top Performing Sectors**: - **Transportation**: 67% beats due to strong volume gains and cost control - **Semi-conductor**: 46% beats driven by revenue growth from tariff pull-ins and localization - **Industrial**: 40% beats attributed to margin expansion from lower commodity costs [14][15] - **Underperforming Sectors**: - **Utilities**: 55% misses due to weaker gas demand and renewable tariff cuts - **Small Caps & Education**: 45% misses linked to muted macro conditions - **Hardware**: 43% misses primarily from auto and surveillance demand [14][15] Economic Outlook for 2H25 - **GDP Growth**: PRC GDP grew by 5.3% in 1H25, exceeding the target of 5.0% for 2025 [21] - **PPI/CPI Trends**: PPI down 2.8% and CPI down 0.1% in 1H25, indicating challenges in industrial production prices [21] - **Government Focus**: Emphasis on supply-side reforms to boost CPI/PPI in 2H25, with key themes including economic development, technological innovation, social welfare, green development, and reform [4][20] Sector Recommendations - **Upgrades**: - **Healthcare and Insurance**: Upgraded to overweight due to aging population and increasing insurance needs [5] - **Downgrades**: - **Telecom and Oil & Gas**: Downgraded to underweight due to low profit growth and reduced price competitiveness [5] - **Technology Sector**: Increased weighting expected to benefit from the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] Index Target Revisions - **HSI Targets**: Revised targets for HSI are 26,800 (+7%) by end-2025, 27,500 (+6%) by mid-2026, and 28,800 by end-2026, driven by higher EPS growth [6] - **Valuation Metrics**: HSI's forward P/E at 10.3x and PB at 1.2x are in line with historical averages [6] Top Investment Picks - **H-Share Top Buys**: - Hengrui (Healthcare) - Sunny Optical - ASMPT - **Removed from Top Buys**: Anta, Huaneng Power, and BYD [7] Additional Insights - **Consumer Sector**: Anticipated shifts in consumer behavior and potential government pro-consumption policies in 2H25 [20] - **Yield Plays**: Domestic investors are focusing on yield plays amid cautious outlook for the PRC economy [22][23] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed performance in the Chinese equity market for 1H25, with significant sectoral variations. The outlook for 2H25 suggests a focus on supply-side reforms and strategic investments in healthcare, technology, and insurance sectors, while maintaining caution in telecom and oil & gas. The revised index targets reflect optimism for EPS growth driven by government initiatives and market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese chemicals industry** and its supply-side structural reforms, particularly in the context of the **petrochemical sector** [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **Chinese Politburo** meeting on July 30 indicated a shift towards **gradual adjustments** rather than aggressive mandates, suggesting a preference for market-driven solutions to overcapacity and industry 'involution' [1][2]. - The omission of the term "low prices" and the change in language regarding production capacity management indicates a more patient approach to resolving excess capacity issues, relying less on administrative measures [2]. - Key policy focus areas include **fertility subsidies**, **demographic challenges**, **local government debt**, and **international competitiveness**, with supply-side measures expected to be implemented in a measured manner [3]. - The **15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP)** is anticipated to provide clearer directions for these adjustments, with a focus on maintaining overall stability [3]. Company-Specific Insights - The report suggests that the Chinese government will continue to support **coal-based chemical production** and pursue **CTC projects** that are significantly lower in cost compared to naphtha crackers [4]. - For **US petrochemicals**, the likelihood of aggressive structural reforms appears reduced, with expected capacity closures primarily involving higher-cost units being replaced by larger, more efficient ones [4]. - The report identifies **ALB (Albemarle Corporation)** and **LAC (Lithium Americas Corp.)** as favorable investments under current policies, while **EMN (Eastman Chemical Company)** and **MEOH (Methanex Corp.)** would benefit from more aggressive policies [4]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights that the current policies may lead to a longer period of margin pressure in the petrochemical sector, indicating potential risks for investors [1][4]. - The absence of emphasis on profitability or returns on capital suggests that adjustments in the industry could take longer, particularly for older or quasi-utility industries [3]. - The report includes a distribution of ratings for various companies, indicating a majority of **Buy** ratings, with specific companies mentioned such as **CE (Celanese Corporation)** and **DOW (Dow Inc.)** rated as **Hold** [21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese chemicals industry and specific companies within the sector.