7 November 2025 | 10:28PM HKT Economics Research China: Macro CIO Tour Takeaways Goldman Sachs China On November 6, we hosted our China macro CIO tour in Beijing. Invited speakers discussed topics such as the US-China trade truce, messages from the 15th Five-Year Plan proposal, and their thoughts on next year's economic growth and policies. The overall tone was relatively cautious, with clear trends of Chinese companies "going global" and a shift in policy support toward service industries. US-China Relatio ...

PICC 601319.SH PICC 1339.HK PICC P&C 2328.HK CONTENTS Comprehensive Non-Auto Insurance Rectification: the Right Move at the Right Time Rational Competition Circular on Strengthening the Supervision of Non-Auto Insurance Business (Jin Fa [2025] No. 36, effective 1 Nov 2025) Focus on transformation and upgrading to avoid "involution"-style competition in non-auto insurance In recent years, the non-auto insurance segment has been struggling with spiraling expenses, inadequate premium rate and chronic underwrit ...

November 2, 2025 11:31 PM GMT Investor Presentation | Asia Pacific M Foundation Trade Truce and FYP Priorities Related reports: Marginally Better Truce, But Not Treaty (30 October 2025) FYP Outlines Tech and Consumption Goals (28 October 2025) Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Resea ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Overview - The conference call discusses the **15th Five-Year Plan (FYP)** of China, focusing on economic and social development goals set by the **Communist Party of China** [1][2][3]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Top Goals of the 15th FYP**: - Building a modern system to consolidate the economy - Accelerating scientific and technological self-reliance - Building a strong domestic market - The goal to expand high-level opening up to the outside world has risen significantly due to increased trade barriers [1][2][6]. 2. **12 Specific Goals**: - Building a modern industrial system (up from 2nd in the 14th FYP) - Accelerating high-level scientific and technological self-reliance (down from 1st) - Building a strong domestic market (remains 3rd) - Expanding high-level opening up to the outside world (up from 9th) - Other goals include optimizing regional economic layout, stimulating cultural innovation, and promoting green transformation [3][5][6]. 3. **Implications for Key Sectors**: - The sectors expected to benefit from the 15th FYP include technology, tourism, healthcare, insurance, and renewables [1][6]. 4. **Market Outlook**: - Positive outlook on the Hong Kong and PRC markets, with specific stock recommendations including **Hengrui**, **Sunny Optical**, **ASMPT**, **Tencent**, **AIA**, **Trip.com**, and **Atour** [1][8]. Other Important Content - The conference highlights the importance of achieving high-quality development and self-reliance in science and technology as critical for China's future economic strength and international influence by 2035 [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the need for a significant leap in various strengths, including economic, technological, and national defense capabilities [2]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding China's strategic economic planning and its implications for various sectors and markets.

Summary of China Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Equity Market - **Key Focus**: 1H25 results, 15th Five-Year Plan, sector performance, and investment strategies Key Findings from 1H25 Results - **Performance Metrics**: Among 445 A and H share companies, 28% reported earnings beats, 40% in-line, and 31% misses [3][14] - **Top Performing Sectors**: - **Transportation**: 67% beats due to strong volume gains and cost control - **Semi-conductor**: 46% beats driven by revenue growth from tariff pull-ins and localization - **Industrial**: 40% beats attributed to margin expansion from lower commodity costs [14][15] - **Underperforming Sectors**: - **Utilities**: 55% misses due to weaker gas demand and renewable tariff cuts - **Small Caps & Education**: 45% misses linked to muted macro conditions - **Hardware**: 43% misses primarily from auto and surveillance demand [14][15] Economic Outlook for 2H25 - **GDP Growth**: PRC GDP grew by 5.3% in 1H25, exceeding the target of 5.0% for 2025 [21] - **PPI/CPI Trends**: PPI down 2.8% and CPI down 0.1% in 1H25, indicating challenges in industrial production prices [21] - **Government Focus**: Emphasis on supply-side reforms to boost CPI/PPI in 2H25, with key themes including economic development, technological innovation, social welfare, green development, and reform [4][20] Sector Recommendations - **Upgrades**: - **Healthcare and Insurance**: Upgraded to overweight due to aging population and increasing insurance needs [5] - **Downgrades**: - **Telecom and Oil & Gas**: Downgraded to underweight due to low profit growth and reduced price competitiveness [5] - **Technology Sector**: Increased weighting expected to benefit from the 15th Five-Year Plan [5] Index Target Revisions - **HSI Targets**: Revised targets for HSI are 26,800 (+7%) by end-2025, 27,500 (+6%) by mid-2026, and 28,800 by end-2026, driven by higher EPS growth [6] - **Valuation Metrics**: HSI's forward P/E at 10.3x and PB at 1.2x are in line with historical averages [6] Top Investment Picks - **H-Share Top Buys**: - Hengrui (Healthcare) - Sunny Optical - ASMPT - **Removed from Top Buys**: Anta, Huaneng Power, and BYD [7] Additional Insights - **Consumer Sector**: Anticipated shifts in consumer behavior and potential government pro-consumption policies in 2H25 [20] - **Yield Plays**: Domestic investors are focusing on yield plays amid cautious outlook for the PRC economy [22][23] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a mixed performance in the Chinese equity market for 1H25, with significant sectoral variations. The outlook for 2H25 suggests a focus on supply-side reforms and strategic investments in healthcare, technology, and insurance sectors, while maintaining caution in telecom and oil & gas. The revised index targets reflect optimism for EPS growth driven by government initiatives and market dynamics.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Chinese chemicals industry** and its supply-side structural reforms, particularly in the context of the **petrochemical sector** [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The **Chinese Politburo** meeting on July 30 indicated a shift towards **gradual adjustments** rather than aggressive mandates, suggesting a preference for market-driven solutions to overcapacity and industry 'involution' [1][2]. - The omission of the term "low prices" and the change in language regarding production capacity management indicates a more patient approach to resolving excess capacity issues, relying less on administrative measures [2]. - Key policy focus areas include **fertility subsidies**, **demographic challenges**, **local government debt**, and **international competitiveness**, with supply-side measures expected to be implemented in a measured manner [3]. - The **15th Five-Year Plan (15FYP)** is anticipated to provide clearer directions for these adjustments, with a focus on maintaining overall stability [3]. Company-Specific Insights - The report suggests that the Chinese government will continue to support **coal-based chemical production** and pursue **CTC projects** that are significantly lower in cost compared to naphtha crackers [4]. - For **US petrochemicals**, the likelihood of aggressive structural reforms appears reduced, with expected capacity closures primarily involving higher-cost units being replaced by larger, more efficient ones [4]. - The report identifies **ALB (Albemarle Corporation)** and **LAC (Lithium Americas Corp.)** as favorable investments under current policies, while **EMN (Eastman Chemical Company)** and **MEOH (Methanex Corp.)** would benefit from more aggressive policies [4]. Additional Important Information - The report highlights that the current policies may lead to a longer period of margin pressure in the petrochemical sector, indicating potential risks for investors [1][4]. - The absence of emphasis on profitability or returns on capital suggests that adjustments in the industry could take longer, particularly for older or quasi-utility industries [3]. - The report includes a distribution of ratings for various companies, indicating a majority of **Buy** ratings, with specific companies mentioned such as **CE (Celanese Corporation)** and **DOW (Dow Inc.)** rated as **Hold** [21]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the Chinese chemicals industry and specific companies within the sector.