A股上涨周期
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广发策略:A股后续或迎来新一轮上涨周期
智通财经网· 2026-02-08 09:14
智通财经APP获悉,广发证券发布研究报告称,虽然近期市场的回调,让部分投资人开始对市场的情况有所担忧,但是目前4000点左右的位置,建议大家 重拾信心、重整旗鼓,备战马年的第一波上涨周期。展望后续1-2个月,A股很可能迎来一段"天时地利人和"的上涨机会。配置方向上,广发证券认为, 类比去年机器人,今年可能类似的方向包括字节产业链(春晚投流,对应AI应用和国产算力)、太空光伏等。 在今年元旦后的报告中,广发证券曾经提到: "岁末年初的路演中,我们观察到有不少绝对收益的资金,在新的一年都有权益资产配置的需求,无非是时点选择的问题。交流下来,大家普遍认为,虽 然1月行情如何存在分歧,但是开年上证指数4000点左右的位置,大概率不是2026年指数的高点,于是,很多资金抱着"晚买不如早买"的心态,在元旦后 马上就加仓A股" 指数随即开启一波快速上涨。 如今,经历了1月份的潮起潮落,上证指数再次回到了4000点附近的位置,那么上述逻辑是否会再次演绎? 首先,过去一个月中影响市场的一个重要变量——各类宽基ETF持续大幅度流出,目前来看已经基本告一段落。如下图所示,1.15日至1.29日期间,宽基 ETF经历了连续两周的大幅 ...
布米普特拉(北京)投资基金管理有限公司:A股上涨周期研判
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-19 06:40
Core Viewpoint - The current rebound in A-shares has lasted for three months, and the continuation of this trend depends on the triple resonance of policy, earnings, and capital flow, with short-term fluctuations expected but medium to long-term potential remaining [2]. Group 1: Supporting Factors - Policy Support: Continuous measures to activate the capital market [3]. - Earnings Turning Point: Q3 corporate profits are expected to turn positive [3]. - Capital Improvement: Inflows from northbound capital and a recovery in margin financing [3]. Group 2: Potential Risk Points - Economic recovery is weaker than expected [4]. - Tail risks from Federal Reserve interest rate hikes [4]. - Rapid overheating of market sentiment [4]. Group 3: Operational Recommendations - Focus on sectors with certainty in Q3 performance [4]. - Avoid chasing stocks that have already risen significantly [4]. - Maintain balanced allocation and control positions [4]. Conclusion - A-shares are still in the process of valuation repair, but investment strategies should shift from "beta frenzy" to "alpha digging," emphasizing rational participation to seize opportunities amid volatility [4].