A股跑赢美股

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民生证券:A股“跑赢”美股的来龙与去脉
智通财经网· 2025-08-22 04:45
Group 1 - A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks, with a relative excess return exceeding 15% since the second half of the year, marking the highest level since 2015 [1][3] - The probability of A-shares outperforming U.S. stocks increases when both markets rise together, with A-shares winning approximately 54% of the time in such scenarios [3][5] - Historical analysis shows that A-shares have outperformed U.S. stocks in 10 distinct phases since the early 1990s, with the average duration of these phases being around 10 months [5][6] Group 2 - The main factors influencing A-share performance during winning phases include valuation and earnings contributions, with valuation changes playing a more significant role [6][10] - In winning phases, sectors such as machinery, finance, military, and technology tend to perform better, although specific sector performance can vary by economic conditions [10][12] - A-shares typically outperform during upward phases of the economic cycle, but can also win during U.S. economic downturns if the U.S. market experiences significant corrections [12][17] Group 3 - The current winning phase for A-shares began in June 2025, with the potential for continuation depending on market conditions and policy support [20][21] - Future performance may depend on whether both markets enter a cooling phase, with a greater decline in U.S. stocks, or if A-shares continue to rise independently [21]
A股VS美股:“跑赢”行情的来龙与去脉
Minsheng Securities· 2025-08-21 13:59
资产价格研究 A 股 VS 美股:"跑赢"行情的来龙与去脉 2025 年 08 月 21 日 ➢ 在美股有些"恐高"的当下,A 股还在"突破自我"。在跑赢了 GDP 之后, 下半年以来 A 股(上证指数)也跑赢了曾经的市场"宠儿"美股(标普 500), 按照我们的标准(滚动 12 个月累计收益),相对美国的超额收益已经超过 15%, 创下 2015 年以来的新高。有趣的是,在当前的宏观叙事下,人们谈美股,往往 谈的是"政策",是"风险",而论及 A 股,关键词更多的是空间,是规划……股 市成为今年中美"攻守之势异也"最直接和集中的体现。那么未来,我们如何看 待这一行情的持续性,以及要继续需要怎样的条件? ➢ 首先,什么情况下更容易出现 A 股跑赢美股?从 20 世纪 90 年代以来,A 股跑赢美股的月份占比约为 41%。其中,A 股单方面上涨(A 股上涨,美国下 跌)的场景占比约为 18.5%。而 A 股、美股共赢的条件下,A 股跑赢的概率更 大。 ➢ 为了更好、更平稳地衡量 A 股相对美股的历史表现,我们使用两个维度的度 量方式:一是过去 12 个月上证综指相对标普 500 指数的累计"超额"收益率; 二是 ...