回望2025年，中国经济在错综复杂的内外部环境中顶压前行。A股市场的表现极具韧性，上证指数在四 季度一度突破4000点，创下近十年新高，年内最大涨幅超过30%。横向对比来看，2025年A股的表现在 全球市场中亦是名列前茅。展望2026年，尽管节奏存在不确定性，但随着高质量发展的不断推进，A股 仍有望在震荡中继续上扬，并在政策红利释放与内外部环境改善的共同推动下延续结构性强势行情。 首先，随着美联储降息周期的再度开启，全球流动性环境出现边际改善。美元指数在年内明显走弱，资 金从高利率环境向更高性价比的市场回流成为趋势。人民币在这一阶段呈现阶段性走强趋势，美元对人 民币汇率年末一度突破7.0关口。这不仅反映了外汇市场对中国经济韧性的认可，也提升了国内资产在 全球投资组合中的相对吸引力。在此背景下，A股这一深具结构性机会且估值处于相对低位的市场，更 容易受到海外增量资金的青睐。而在经历过去数年的波动后，A股估值体系逐步从高波动向高质量转 型，其中具备技术优势和长期发展前景的科技公司更能吸引全球资金的关注。综合来看，美联储降息推 动美元走弱，叠加人民币阶段性走强，增强了中国资产的相对吸引力。由此带来的资金回流与财富效 ...

2026 年 1 月 4 日 重点转至政府债发行——资产配置周报 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 huanghl@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《资金面超预期松弛——资产配 置周报》2025-12-21 2、《事件性冲击结束——资产配置 周报》2025-12-14 3、《流动性高点确认，关注事件性 冲击——资产配置周报》2025-12- 07 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 11 月实体部门负债 增速录得 8.6%，前值 8.7%，符合预期。预计 2025 年 12 月实 体部门负债增速下降至 8.3%附近，低于 2024 年底的 8.8%， 与稳定宏观杠杆率的目标一致。金融部门方面，上周资金面 边际上有所收敛，在 2025 年 12 月下旬资金面宽松超预期之 后，即便 2026 年 1 月资金面风险不大，再进一步明显改善的 概率也在下降。我们认为，观察重点转至 2026 年 1 月政府债 发行情况，就现有信息来看，2026 年 1 月政府债发行中规中 矩， ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | 2.68 | 641.88 | 25.16 | 深圳新星 | 9.99 | | 电力设备 | 1.25 | 1234.90 | 24.87 | 东方日升 | 13.00 | | 商贸零售 | 1.21 | 212.29 | -6.89 | 银座股份 | 10.03 | | 钢铁 | 1.17 | 47.91 | 9.25 | 海南矿业 | 10.02 | | 国防军工 | 1.04 | 766.64 | 2.85 | 西测测试 | 19.03 | | 汽车 | 0.94 | 565.03 | 16.37 | 标榜股份 | 20.01 | | 计算机 | 0.88 | 527.93 | 4.98 | 佳缘科技 | 20.00 | | 非银金融 | 0.84 | 255.66 | 4.67 | 中银证券 | 7.68 | | 房地产 | 0.71 | 105.70 | -12.39 | 华联控股 | 10.00 ...

（原标题：今日27.47亿元主力资金潜入汽车业） | 行业名称 | 成交量 | 成交量 较昨日 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿股） | 增减 | （%） | （%） | 主力资金 净流入（亿元） | | | | （%） | | | | | 汽车 | 56.81 | 0.88 | 2.54 | 1.46 | 27.47 | | 机械设备 | 84.73 | 16.64 | 3.09 | 1.51 | 18.62 | | 国防军工 | 54.59 | 15.36 | 6.19 | 2.91 | 16.24 | | 食品饮料 | 15.32 | -1.71 | 1.65 | 0.85 | 5.40 | | 轻工制造 | 39.39 | 29.28 | 4.66 | 1.59 | 3.16 | | 电力设备 | 91.97 | 2.48 | 3.65 | 0.65 | 1.44 | | 家用电器 | 16.18 | 13.11 | 2.13 | 0.69 | 1.39 | | 纺织服饰 | 15.22 | 11.67 | ...

| 石油石 | 14.91 | -13.94 | 0.40 | 0.65 | -1.41 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 化 | | | | | | | 农林牧 | 29.78 | -9.80 | 3.1 1 | -0.85 | -4.65 | | 渔 | | | | | | | 传媒 | 30.96 | 6.69 | 2.12 | 0.00 | -5.74 | | 非银金 | 31.40 | -8.62 | 0.75 | 0.30 | -7.15 | | 融 | | | | | | | 交通运 | 42.38 | -23.46 | 0.99 | 0.13 | -7.16 | | 输 | | | | | | | 商贸零 | 49.28 | -19.63 | 4.09 | 0.03 | -8.14 | | 售 | | | | | | | 银行 | 25.03 | -11.79 | 0.19 | -0.30 | -10.32 | | 食品饮 | 15.59 | -17.75 | 1.68 | -0.36 | -11.13 | | 料 | | | | | | | ...

| 计算机 | 1764.70 | -4.17 | -0.24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料 | 516.89 | -4.70 | -0.90 | | 医药生物 | 1630.94 | -5.28 | -0.32 | | 机械设备 | 1297.03 | -5.42 | -0.42 | | 基础化工 | 989.38 | -5.49 | -0.55 | | 汽车 | 1169.84 | -6.61 | -0.56 | | 国防军工 | 853.34 | -8.69 | -1.01 | 截至12月17日，市场最新融资余额为24858.81亿元，较上个交易日环比减少22.34亿元，分行业统计，申 万所属一级行业有9个行业融资余额增加，电子行业融资余额增加最多，较上一日增加10.64亿元；融资 余额增加居前的行业还有通信、非银金融、建筑材料等，融资余额分别增加6.89亿元、3.80亿元、 7704.27万元；融资余额减少的行业有22个，国防军工、汽车、基础化工等行业融资余额减少较多，分 别减少8.69亿元、6.61亿元、5.49亿元。 以幅度进行统计，通信行业融资余额增幅最高 ...

| 申万行业 | 行业涨跌（%） | 成交额（亿元） | 比上日（%） | 领涨（跌）股 | 涨跌幅（%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 商贸零售 | 1.85 | 308.27 | 61.38 | 永辉超市 | 10.10 | | 美容护理 | 1.21 | 24.77 | 21.85 | 百亚股份 | 3.73 | | 社会服务 | 0.23 | 74.81 | 30.43 | 中公教育 | 9.92 | | 食品饮料 | -0.18 | 180.17 | -1.44 | 交大昂立 | -5.53 | | 纺织服饰 | -0.28 | 65.88 | -2.50 | 兴业科技 | -5.19 | | 家用电器 | -0.32 | 97.81 | -18.71 | 海立股份 | -3.82 | | 农林牧渔 | -0.39 | 157.05 | -0.35 | 中粮糖业 | -5.41 | | 轻工制造 | -0.46 | 146.07 | -14.36 | 中源家居 | -10.01 | | 非银金融 | -0.47 | 178.60 | -22.24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall macro - policy aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The liability growth rate of the real - sector is expected to decline in December 2025, and the government debt growth rate is also expected to continue to fall. - The economic situation on the asset side is weak, with the physical quantity data in October weaker than that in September. It is necessary to focus on when the economy will stabilize and pick up. - The stock - bond ratio is in an interval - shock state, currently with risk - preference at the upper limit of the interval and trending downward later. The stock - bond ratio is in favor of bonds, and the equity style is in favor of value [17][19][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 8.7%, the same as the previous value, and it is expected to drop to around 8.5% in December. The government debt growth rate was 13.1% at the end of November, and is expected to fall to around 12.5% in December. The capital market was basically stable last week, mainly due to the renewal of 750 billion special treasury bonds on the 12th, with a high probability of subsequent marginal convergence [17][18]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The net increase of government bonds last week was 298.1 billion yuan, higher than the planned net decrease of 510.2 billion yuan. It is planned that the government bonds will have a net decrease of 119.2 billion yuan next week [2][18]. - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital trading volume and price increased on a weekly average basis, and the term spread was stable. The one - year treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly, closing at 1.39% on the weekend. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year treasury bonds was stable at 45 basis points. The yield fluctuation ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [2][18]. - **Asset Side**: The physical quantity data in October was weaker than that in September. The annual real economic growth target in 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Economic Cycle**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in the fourth quarter of 2024. The government put forward three policy goals in 2016, and currently the liability - side convergence has not ended but the space is limited [6][20]. - **Overseas Situation**: China and the US are in a state of equal - power competition. If the valuation of the US technology field is re - evaluated, global funds may flow to China. It is necessary to focus on whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel [6][21]. - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market was stable, with stocks and bonds rising slightly, and the equity style shifting to growth - dominance. The bond yields at both long - and short - ends declined slightly, and the stock - bond ratio was in favor of bonds [7][21]. - **Investment Recommendation**: It is recommended to allocate long - term bonds and value - type equity assets. This week, it is recommended to allocate the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (80% position) and the 30 - year treasury bond ETF (20% position) [8][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, A - shares fell on heavy volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communication, national defense and military industry, electronics, machinery, and power equipment had the largest increases, while coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing had the largest declines [30]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 12, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, communication, machinery, and computers, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and coal. The trading volume of the whole A - shares rebounded this week, with the trading volume of some industries increasing and that of some industries decreasing [31][34]. - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of communication, electronics, national defense and military industry, machinery, and comprehensive increased the most, while that of coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, real estate, and textile and clothing decreased the most. Industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, securities, insurance, etc. [37][38]. - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, the demand is declining marginally, with the global manufacturing PMI falling and the export growth rates of some countries fluctuating. Domestically, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends [42]. - **Public Offering Market Review**: In the second week of December, most active public - offering equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of December 12, the net asset value of active public - offering equity funds increased slightly compared with that in Q4 2024 [60]. - **Industry Recommendation**: In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio is only slightly in favor of equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. A recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 13 stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banks, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][65].

12月11日，三大指数均下跌，全市场成交额1.89万亿元，较前一交易日增量936亿元，超4300股下跌。 市场热点聚焦可控核聚变、风电设备板块，房地产、免税概念走低。 今日市场估值概况： | | | 指数估值日期: 2025-12-11 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中证全指 | 市盈率 20.45 市盈率百分位% 90.63 | | | | | 1.61 市净率 | | 市净率百分位% 46.53 | | 无风险利率 | 中国10年国债收益率=1.86% | | | 各大宽基、行业指数估值及百分位如下： | | | A股主要宽基指数估值表 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 市盈率(PE) | 市盈率百分位% | 市净率(PB) | 市净率百分位% | | 科创50 | 149.77 | 80.7 | 5.94 | 91.97 | | 中证A500 | 15.78 | 78.72 | 1.49 | 80.07 | | 中证1000 | 45.84 | 64.98 | 2.35 | 43.92 | | 中证500 | ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.68% as of 13:58, with a trading volume of 973.31 million shares and a transaction amount of 14,790.26 billion yuan, representing an increase of 3.91% compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing industries included: - **Electric Power Equipment**: Increased by 0.49% with a transaction amount of 1,477.48 billion yuan, up 15.34% from the previous day, led by Tongguang Cable, which rose by 19.98% [1]. - **National Defense and Military Industry**: Increased by 0.12% with a transaction amount of 762.79 billion yuan, up 5.60%, led by Galaxy Electronics, which rose by 10.08% [1]. - The worst-performing industries included: - **Comprehensive**: Decreased by 3.77% with a transaction amount of 37.58 billion yuan, down 24.39%, led by Sanmu Group, which fell by 8.64% [2]. - **Retail Trade**: Decreased by 2.67% with a transaction amount of 352.07 billion yuan, up 19.35%, led by Zhongbai Group, which fell by 10.01% [2]. - **Real Estate**: Decreased by 2.46% with a transaction amount of 226.83 billion yuan, down 12.24%, led by China Wuyi, which fell by 10.09% [2].