近期AI相关热门板块震荡回调，考虑到今年已实现较大涨幅，部分投资者对于AI投资的未来产生一定 担忧。AI板块贵了吗？2026年是否仍旧值得期待？景顺长城科技军团2026年展望出炉，小景摘取对于 AI的投资观点分享给大家。 张仲维认为，英伟达最新财报展现出强劲增长态势，与此同时，谷歌新一代 AI 模型实现关键突破。基 于上述行业进展，持续看好 2026 年新芯片、新模型落地后催生的全新商业应用与收入增量，亦长期看 好具备完整生态的全球互联网巨头在 AI 领域的持续投入，以及 AI 发展带来的国内外算力基础设施与 应用端的投资机遇。 江山：2026年AI或仍然是最大的产业主线 江山对于权益市场继续保持中期维度的乐观态度。他认为，近期的回调提供了非常好的布局机会，市场 在经历了轮动和高低切换之后将进入布局2026年的阶段，当下需要思考的是来年什么是最好的方向。 对于2026年，个人认为AI仍然是最大的产业主线，随着北美巨头继续加大投入和开展融资， AI将不再 仅仅拉动IDC行业的需求，还会通过拉动基础设施投资对宏观经济施加更大的影响。因此AI投资的内涵 也将从传统的数据中心供应链拓展到电力电网、新能源中上游、大宗电 ...

Core Insights - The AI community is transitioning from the "Age of Scaling" to a research-focused era, indicating that merely increasing model size and data may no longer yield significant breakthroughs in AI capabilities [1][3][4]. Group 1: Transition from Scaling to Research - Ilya Sutskever's recent comments suggest that while scaling can still lead to improvements, essential elements are missing that are crucial for achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) [4][11]. - The consensus among top researchers is that current AI technologies can still create substantial economic and social impacts, even without further breakthroughs [7][15]. Group 2: Perspectives on AGI Timeline - Various experts have differing opinions on the timeline for achieving AGI, with estimates ranging from 2 to 20 years [8][24]. - The debate continues on what specific breakthroughs are necessary and how quickly they can be achieved [7][8]. Group 3: Emotional Value Function - Ilya emphasizes the importance of an "emotional value function" in human decision-making, which current AI lacks, suggesting that this could be a key area for future research [11][14]. - The need for innovative architectures and ideas is highlighted as essential for progressing towards AGI [14][19]. Group 4: Economic Impact and AI Investment - Major tech companies are projected to spend approximately $370 billion on capital expenditures by 2025, indicating that AI infrastructure investment is a key driver of economic growth in the U.S. [16]. - The current AI investment climate is compared to historical industrial investments, suggesting that while there may be a bubble, it could lead to lasting advancements [17][19]. Group 5: Job Displacement Concerns - AI is estimated to have the potential to replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce, with white-collar jobs being particularly vulnerable [22][24]. - Contrasting views exist regarding job displacement, with some experts arguing that AI will create new opportunities rather than eliminate jobs [28].

Group 1 - The Whisper Thunder model, also known as David, has topped the Artificial Analysis video generation rankings, surpassing models like Veo 3 and Sora 2 Pro [1] - The model features a fixed video length of 8 seconds with significantly stronger motion, although its frequency of appearance has decreased [1] - There are indications that the model may originate from China, but it still exhibits flaws such as jitter in high-action scenes, and there is no clear information about its developers or usage timeline [1] Group 2 - Tencent has launched the mixed Yuan 3D Studio 1.1, integrating the new PolyGen 1.5 model, enabling end-to-end quadrilateral surface generation suitable for games and animations [2] - The base model has been upgraded to mixed Yuan 3D 3.0, supporting ultra-high-definition modeling at 3.6 billion voxel level, with geometric resolution reaching 1536³, improving modeling precision by approximately three times compared to the previous generation [2] - PolyGen 1.5 employs a unified three-four surface representation and reinforcement learning strategy, resulting in lower damage rates and higher surface regularity, making it directly usable for UV mapping and animation binding [2] Group 3 - Kunlun Wanwei has released Mureka V7.6 and Mureka O2 models, with nearly 7 million new registered users since March, and users from over 100 countries accessing the platform [3] - The new models show significant improvements in musicality, arrangement capabilities, sound quality, and prompt adherence, with enhanced response speed and inference efficiency, making them more suitable for large-scale commercial use [3] - The models continue the MusiCoT fine-grained music modeling system, strengthening the modeling capabilities of paragraph relationships, instrument interactions, and emotional trajectories, achieving sound field and quality generation closer to professional production standards [3] Group 4 - Stanford University's "Modern Software Developer" course has become highly popular, with the instructor encouraging students to embrace AI tools like Cursor and Claude, suggesting that completing the course without writing any code would be impressive [4] - Research indicates that the employment rate for junior developers aged 22 to 25 has decreased by 13% amid the AI wave, with an expected decline of nearly 20% by July 2025 compared to the peak at the end of 2022 [4] - Microsoft CEO revealed that 30% of code is written by AI, while Meta predicts that half of development work will be AI-generated by 2026, shifting the industry focus from "writing code" to "building software" capabilities [4] Group 5 - Ilya Sutskever clarified that scaling can still bring progress, but some crucial elements are still missing even with continued expansion [6] - There is a consensus among top researchers that while current technological paradigms can significantly impact the economy and society, achieving AGI/ASI will require further research breakthroughs [6] - Ilya discussed the importance of the human "emotional value function" in pre-training, suggesting that emotions are part of the decision-making system rather than mere noise, which may be a critical missing element in current AI technology [6] Group 6 - Hugging Face co-founder Thomas Wolf stated that Chinese models have become the preferred choice for startups exploring new scenarios, and the resurgence of open-source in the U.S. is a response to China's development [7] - He believes that the generalization ability of LLMs is much weaker than expected, and breaking through the ceiling of superintelligence requires models to "challenge old assumptions and create new problems" rather than just annotating data [7] - Hugging Face operates efficiently with a team of 250, having not utilized the $200 million raised in the last funding round, with the enterprise version of Hub being used by thousands of organizations, including large clients like Salesforce, which will be a core focus for the future [7] Group 7 - Andrew Ng expressed that the degree of bubble in AI varies across different fields: the application layer is severely undervalued and under-invested, while AI inference infrastructure requires significant investment, with the highest risk of bubble existing in AI model training infrastructure [8] - He pointed out that if the market share of open-source models continues to grow, companies investing billions in training models may not achieve attractive financial returns, and the technological moat is weak as algorithm and hardware advancements reduce training costs annually [8] - Ng's main concern is that over-investment in training facilities could lead to a market crash, negatively affecting sentiment towards the entire AI sector, although he remains confident in the long-term fundamentals of AI [8] Group 8 - MIT, in collaboration with Oak Ridge National Laboratory, developed the "Iceberg Index" simulation tool, creating a digital twin of the U.S. labor market with 151 million agents, concluding that current AI technology can replace 11.7% of the U.S. workforce [9] - The research found that changes in technology IT and internet jobs account for only 2.2% of the total wage impact from AI, with the majority of disruptions occurring in white-collar sectors such as finance, healthcare, human resources, logistics, and administrative roles [9] - The simulation is precise down to specific postal codes, revealing that AI's influence is pervasive with no safe havens, and Tennessee has already used this index to formulate an official "AI Labor Action Plan" [9]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The system appears broken as assets are going parabolic instead of a widespread recession [1] - Individuals are compelled to invest in stocks & crypto to offset the continuous erosion of the dollar's purchasing power [1] - Optimistic belief in AGI/ASI breakthroughs to grow out of debt, with investments in the right assets potentially leading to generational wealth [1] - Taking profits back into the dollar before solving the debt issue could strengthen USD immeasurably [1] - Stablecoins backed by US Treasuries could become the dominant way of transacting value globally [1] - In a worst-case scenario where AGI doesn't work and the debt problem remains unsolved, assets will still experience parabolic growth before a collapse [1] Risk Assessment & Mitigation - Financial austerity is deemed unrealistic due to the vested interests of wealthy individuals in positions of power [1] - The advice of imminent job obsolescence and economic collapse within 5 years is considered useless [1] - Younger individuals are advised to aggressively invest spare cash during this window [1] - Individuals should learn about how AI can disrupt their existing industry to navigate effectively [1]

Core Insights - Google DeepMind has launched Genie 3, a next-generation universal world model that can simulate unprecedentedly rich interactive environments [1][5] - Genie 3 can generate a dynamic world at a speed of 20-24 frames per second, producing 720p visuals consistently for several minutes [2][4] - The introduction of Genie 3 marks a significant advancement in world simulation AI, accelerating the pursuit of AGI/ASI [5][7] Performance Enhancements - Compared to its predecessors, Genie 3 has achieved a monumental improvement in generation duration, capable of creating coherent interactive worlds lasting several minutes [4][11] - Genie 3 is the first world model from Google DeepMind to support real-time interaction, enhancing user experience [10][11] Technical Capabilities - Genie 3 can simulate physical phenomena, including water flow and lighting, and interact with complex environments [15] - It can generate vibrant natural systems, such as intricate forests and diverse wildlife, creating an immersive ecological experience [21] - The model can create fantastical scenes and expressive animated characters, showcasing its imaginative capabilities [26] - Genie 3 allows exploration of historical scenes and locations, enabling users to experience unique attractions across time [31] Interaction and Memory - Genie 3's real-time interaction capability is achieved through a sophisticated memory system that recalls information from up to one minute prior [36][38] - The model maintains physical consistency over extended time spans, allowing for a coherent environment even during prolonged interactions [38][46] User Interaction - Genie 3 supports a text-driven interaction model, enabling users to generate world events with simple prompts, significantly enhancing immersion [47] - The model can create diverse scenarios based on user inputs, expanding the range of experiences available to AI agents [47] Training and Compatibility - Genie 3 has been tested with the SIMA AI agent, demonstrating its compatibility for training AI in various environments [52][56] - The model's ability to maintain consistency allows for longer action sequences, facilitating more complex goal achievement [56] Limitations - Genie 3 has certain limitations, including a restricted action space and challenges in simulating interactions among multiple independent agents [59][60] - The model currently lacks perfect geographical accuracy in simulating real-world locations and can only generate clear text when provided in the input [61][62] - Continuous interaction is limited to several minutes, rather than hours [63] Industry Impact - Genie 3 represents a significant milestone in the development of world models, creating new opportunities for education and training [64] - The model can assist in training AI agents and evaluating their performance, contributing to the journey towards AGI [64] - The launch of Genie 3 has garnered attention from industry experts, highlighting its potential to redefine interactive and creative experiences [67][68]