机构：申万宏源研究 风险提示：互联网医疗政策环境变化、线上渗透率不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 持续拓宽新药首发品类。公司25Q3 与礼来、信达生物、卫材中国、拜耳等药企签署战略合作协议，多 项新药于公司平台首发，例如卫材莱博雷生片、恒瑞全氟己基辛烷滴眼液、拜耳达喜乳果糖等。 双11 超7000 个品牌成交额同比翻倍、AI 问诊体现价值。2500+医药品牌成交额翻倍，原研药品类翻倍 验证公司扩充原研药品类价值，2500+保健品成交额翻倍，2000+医疗器械成交额翻倍。AI 侧，30%用 户咨询来自深夜体现AI 医生价值，咨询人次环比增加60%+，用户好评率超98%，线上营养师90%由AI 解决。 拓宽AI 健康生态。25 年9 月公司和鱼跃、三诺、微泰等品牌合作成立智慧互联生态联盟，通过AI Agent 搭建用户监测、分析、干预和跟踪的血糖管理体系，未来计划拓展至血压、心电、呼吸制氧等领 域。 维持买入评级。考虑到公司医药和健康产品销售、平台服务增长突出，我们上调公司25-27年收入预测 为709.5、820.0、934.9 亿元，原预测为700.9、813.5、910.2 亿元。考虑到公司供应链优势有望持续带动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Health (06618) [4][10] Core Insights - JD Health's Q3 2025 financial results exceeded expectations, with revenue of 17.12 billion (up 28.7%) and adjusted net profit of 1.90 billion (up 42.4%) [8][9] - The company is expected to benefit from strong growth in drug sales, increased advertising revenue, and enhanced AI capabilities [9][10] - The report projects revenue growth for 2025-2027, with estimates of 70.95 billion, 81.99 billion, and 93.49 billion respectively [6][10] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts for JD Health are as follows: - 2023: Revenue 53.53 billion, Net Profit 2.14 billion - 2024: Revenue 58.16 billion, Net Profit 4.16 billion - 2025E: Revenue 70.95 billion, Net Profit 4.74 billion - 2026E: Revenue 81.99 billion, Net Profit 5.66 billion - 2027E: Revenue 93.49 billion, Net Profit 6.76 billion [6][12]

Core Viewpoint - The lawsuit filed by Beiningmei against its former partner, Keluobao, for trademark infringement and unfair competition raises concerns about the company's financial health and potential manipulation of performance metrics through legal actions [1][4]. Group 1: Lawsuit Background - The conflict between Beiningmei and Keluobao began in 2021 when Beiningmei authorized Keluobao to operate the "Xiao Bei Tai" brand of specialized medical infant formula, with a revenue-sharing model [2]. - Initial cooperation was smooth, but tensions arose as Beiningmei accused Keluobao of unauthorized product expansion and trademark registration, while Keluobao claimed Beiningmei cut off supply and owed partnership fees [2][3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Beiningmei reported a 43% year-on-year increase in net profit, but revenue declined by 4.37%, indicating a disparity between profit growth and sales performance [4][5]. - The increase in net profit was primarily due to a rise in gross margin to 45.3%, attributed to lower raw material costs rather than sales growth [8]. - Sales expenses increased significantly, leading to concerns about the sustainability of profit margins, as the company relies heavily on promotional spending to maintain market share [9]. Group 3: Strategic Challenges - Beiningmei's strategic shift towards a "family health" platform has yet to yield significant revenue, with the infant formula business still accounting for 89.2% of total revenue [10]. - The company faces challenges in entering the adult nutrition market, which is already dominated by competitors [10]. Group 4: Cash Flow and Debt Issues - The company's operating cash flow dropped by 59.9%, raising alarms about its cash generation capabilities amid rising inventory levels [11]. - Beiningmei's accounts receivable are high, with a significant portion being overdue, indicating weak bargaining power in its distribution channels [18]. - The company maintains a high level of short-term debt relative to its cash reserves, leading to concerns about liquidity and financial stability [19].