机构：申万宏源研究 风险提示：互联网医疗政策环境变化、线上渗透率不及预期、行业竞争加剧。 持续拓宽新药首发品类。公司25Q3 与礼来、信达生物、卫材中国、拜耳等药企签署战略合作协议，多 项新药于公司平台首发，例如卫材莱博雷生片、恒瑞全氟己基辛烷滴眼液、拜耳达喜乳果糖等。 双11 超7000 个品牌成交额同比翻倍、AI 问诊体现价值。2500+医药品牌成交额翻倍，原研药品类翻倍 验证公司扩充原研药品类价值，2500+保健品成交额翻倍，2000+医疗器械成交额翻倍。AI 侧，30%用 户咨询来自深夜体现AI 医生价值，咨询人次环比增加60%+，用户好评率超98%，线上营养师90%由AI 解决。 拓宽AI 健康生态。25 年9 月公司和鱼跃、三诺、微泰等品牌合作成立智慧互联生态联盟，通过AI Agent 搭建用户监测、分析、干预和跟踪的血糖管理体系，未来计划拓展至血压、心电、呼吸制氧等领 域。 维持买入评级。考虑到公司医药和健康产品销售、平台服务增长突出，我们上调公司25-27年收入预测 为709.5、820.0、934.9 亿元，原预测为700.9、813.5、910.2 亿元。考虑到公司供应链优势有望持续带动 ...

Core Insights - The national medical insurance negotiation for 2025 has introduced a dual-directory system, marking a significant change in the negotiation process for innovative drugs and commercial insurance [1][2][15] - The negotiation process for innovative drugs has seen a price reduction range suggested by the National Medical Insurance Administration (NMIA) of 15% to 50%, with a focus on the CAR-T drugs [3][4] - The introduction of the innovative drug directory is expected to create a more sustainable market payment mechanism for new drugs, with companies needing to reassess their product positioning and market strategies [15] Summary by Sections National Medical Insurance Negotiation - The negotiation took place from October 30 to November 3, 2025, with the first three days dedicated to the national medical insurance directory and the last two days for the commercial insurance innovative drug directory [1] - This year marks the first introduction of an innovative drug directory, which has altered the negotiation dynamics for drug pricing [1][15] Price Negotiation Mechanism - The NMIA has introduced a new price negotiation mechanism for innovative drugs, allowing for price discussions between drug companies and commercial insurance [1][3] - Companies have been advised to consider a price reduction of 15% to 50% during negotiations, with some expressing skepticism about achieving reductions below 15% [3][4] CAR-T Drugs - CAR-T drugs have been a focal point in the negotiations, with successful negotiations reported for some products, such as the CAR-T drug from HeYuan Biotech priced at 999,000 yuan [3][4] - A limited number of CAR-T drugs are expected to be included in the innovative drug directory, with estimates suggesting around 20 drugs may be approved [1][3] Commercial Insurance Dynamics - The dual-directory negotiation allows companies to choose between reporting to the basic medical insurance directory, the innovative drug directory, or both, creating strategic options for different companies [2][10] - The commercial insurance market has shown limited interest in covering rare disease drugs due to their high costs and small patient populations, which may affect their inclusion in the innovative drug directory [14][15] Focus on ADC and Bispecific Antibodies - ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugates) and bispecific antibodies remain key focus areas in the negotiations, with several innovative drugs vying for inclusion in the directories [8][10] - Companies are adopting varied strategies based on their market positioning, with some prioritizing the basic medical insurance directory for broader market access, while others focus on maintaining high-end product positioning through the innovative drug directory [10][11]

Core Insights - The national medical insurance negotiation concluded with significant changes, including the introduction of an innovative drug directory and a new price negotiation mechanism involving both domestic and foreign pharmaceutical companies [1][15] - The negotiation focused on price reductions ranging from 15% to 50%, with a particular emphasis on CAR-T therapies, which are expected to have a limited number of entries in the innovative drug directory [1][3][15] Group 1: Innovative Drug Directory - The innovative drug directory negotiation was a first, allowing for a new pricing negotiation mechanism between pharmaceutical companies and commercial insurance [1][15] - The number of drugs entering the innovative drug directory is expected to be limited, with estimates suggesting around 20 drugs may be included [1][3] - CAR-T therapies are a focal point, with successful negotiations reported for some products, indicating a competitive landscape for pricing [3][4] Group 2: Pricing Strategies - Pharmaceutical companies are presented with options to report under different categories, influencing their pricing strategies and negotiation approaches [2][10] - The negotiation dynamics reveal a split in strategies, with some companies prioritizing market share through price reductions, while others aim to maintain premium pricing for innovative products [10][11] - The expected price reductions for CAR-T therapies are under scrutiny, with some companies indicating that achieving a reduction below 15% may be challenging [3][4] Group 3: Commercial Insurance Impact - The introduction of the innovative drug directory is seen as a potential game-changer for how CAR-T therapies are covered under commercial insurance, although the actual impact remains to be seen [5][15] - There is skepticism regarding the inclusion of rare disease drugs in the commercial insurance directory, as insurers are less inclined to cover high-cost, low-volume medications [14][15] - The overall goal of the negotiations is to establish a sustainable market-based payment mechanism for innovative drugs, leveraging both public and commercial insurance [15]

Group 1: Company News - Paige Biopharma officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with an initial price of HKD 15.6, but saw a first-day drop of 25.9%, closing at HKD 11.66, resulting in a market capitalization of approximately HKD 32.55 billion. The company focuses on innovative therapies for chronic diseases, particularly in the endocrine and metabolic fields, with six candidate products but no commercialized products yet. The most advanced product, PB-119, is a GLP-1 agonist for diabetes, with registration applications submitted for both monotherapy and combination therapy [1] - Eisai's new drug, lemborexant (brand name: Dayvigo), has been approved for sale in China for the treatment of insomnia. This drug is a dual orexin receptor antagonist that improves sleep quality by regulating the orexin system. It is the first of its kind approved in China, with several other similar products also in the pipeline [2] - Xiantong Pharmaceutical submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a focus on oncology, neurodegenerative diseases, and cardiovascular diseases. The company reported revenues of approximately CNY 10.23 million and CNY 44.06 million for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with corresponding losses of approximately CNY 309 million and CNY 156 million [4] Group 2: Industry News - Hainan Provincial People's Hospital was fined CNY 15.06 million for violating medical insurance fund regulations, including excessive examinations and improper billing practices. This highlights the need for stricter regulation of medical insurance funds to protect public resources [3] - Multiple regions, including Jiangxi and Anhui, have initiated comprehensive investigations into past violations in medical insurance enforcement, focusing on issues such as arbitrary charges and excessive inspections. This effort aims to standardize medical insurance enforcement and promote a more regulated industry environment [5]